The Commanders and Bears have a quick turnaround after losing close contests in Week 4. The former pushed the defending NFC champs to overtime, and the latter choked away a 28-7 lead against a defense that surrendered 70 points in Week 3. So, the Commanders are understandably favored and the more attractive team to use on this showdown slate. Still, the Bears have a few intriguing picks. This showdown primer will narrow the player pool to a manageable number, suggest the best options for Captain/MVP and analyze lineup constructions.
Game: Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders
Spread: WAS -7.0
Over/Under: 44.5 Points
Bears Analysis: The Bears made the most of a get-right matchup for their offense last week. Still, a 28-point effort against the inept Broncos should be taken with a grain of salt. Justin Fields entering this game in his best form is a plus, though.
Fields had 335 passing yards, four touchdown passes, one interception and 25 rushing yards against the Broncos last week. It was his second game attempting at least 35 passes this year, and he could be cut loose often this week as well.
According to RotoViz's pace app, Chicago has passed on only 52% of their 114 plays in a neutral game script. However, this season, Washington's opponents have passed on 59% of their 170 plays in a neutral game script. Even a slight uptick in passing volume would be optimal for Fields's DFS-scoring potential.
The matchup is stellar for the mobile third-year quarterback's rushing upside, too. The Commanders have allowed 32.8 rushing yards per game to quarterbacks, albeit they faced Joshua Dobbs, Russell Wilson, Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts, a challenging collection of mobile quarterbacks.
DJ Moore is easily his top weapon when Fields isn't running and takes to the air. Chicago's No. 1 wideout is tied for first on the club in target share (20.7%) and touchdown receptions (two) and alone in first in receptions (19), receiving yards (301) and air yards (329).
The matchup is decent for Moore, too. According to The 33rd Team, Washington has allowed 17.9 DraftKings and 14.4 FanDuel points per game to perimeter wideouts and coughed up 25.1 DK points per game and 20.8 FD points per game to slot receivers. Therefore, Moore can score wherever he aligns.
Cole Kmet is the only other consistent contributor -- by Bears' standards -- in Chicago's passing attack. He's tied with Moore for the team lead in target share and touchdown receptions. Kmet also has 18 receptions and 189 receiving yards and paces the club in yards after the catch (90).
Commanders Analysis: Sam Howell hasn't been perfect. He holds onto the ball and takes too many sacks. Nonetheless, the second-year quarterback has flashed potential, and offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy trusts him to sling it.
Washington has passed on 60% of their 190 plays in a neutral game script this season. As a result, Howell has passed for at least 290 yards twice this season. The dual-threat quarterback has also rushed for at least 11 yards in every game and set a season-high with 40 in Week 4.
Howell can shine in a superb matchup this week. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Bears have the third-lowest pressure (15.1%) and only two sacks this season. Chicago has also allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game (267.8) and the second-most touchdown passes (10).
If Howell lights up the Bears through the air, Terry McLaurin is the best bet to smash. The speedy wideout leads the team in target share (19.8%), receptions (21), receiving yards (212) and air yards (268). He also has one touchdown reception.
Jahan Dotson has also cleared a 19.0% target share (19.1%). The second-year wide receiver hasn't made the most of his looks, tallying an underwhelming 14 receptions, 110 receiving yards and one touchdown. Still, Dotson gets frequent looks and leads the team in routes (155), per Pro Football Focus (PFF).
Curtis Samuel has a ho-hum 15.3% target share. Yet, he's effectively tallied 17 receptions and 178 receiving yards, both second on the team. The versatile wide receiver also has three rushes for 20 yards and a touchdown.
The top three wideouts have a good matchup, especially when they play the slot. Chicago has allowed 22.1 DK and 17.4 FD points per game to slot wide receivers.
Per The 33rd Team, McLaurin's slot rate has increased every week, eclipsing 33% in Week 3 (34.1%) and Week 4 (48.4%). Dotson had a season-low 47.3% slot rate in Week 4 but was at 66.7%, 75.4% and 66.7% in Week 1 through Week 3. And Samuel's slot rate was 63.0% in Week 4 after ranging from 73.7% to 75.0% in the first three games.
Dyami Brown is the fourth wideout on the team. Yet, he's mixed in for 54 routes and has big-play potential. According to PFF, Brown has a 15.1-yard average depth of target (aDOT) and 15.2 yards per reception on seven targets and five receptions in 2023.
Logan Thomas also has a meaningful role in Washington's passing attack. He was out in Week 3 while recovering from a concussion but ran 92 routes versus 30 for John Bates and 21 for Cole Turner in three healthy contests. Thomas averages 3.0 receptions per game and 35.3 receiving yards per game with one touchdown reception. Meanwhile, the Bears have allowed 4.5 receptions per game, 44.3 receiving yards per game and one touchdown reception to tight end this season.
Brian Robinson is an excellent selection if Washington's game script is positive. When the Commanders have led by at least three points this year, they've rushed on 49% of their 43 plays. Teams have also chosen to attack the Bears on the ground at a 48% rate on their 141 plays in a neutral game this season.
The Bears have allowed 96.0 rushing yards per game, four rushing touchdowns, 5.8 receptions per game, 58.5 receiving yards per game and four receiving touchdowns to running backs this year. Robinson isn't a flashy running back. Still, the second-year bruiser averages 15.3 rush attempts per game, 65.3 rushing yards per game, 1.3 receptions per game, 13.8 receiving yards per game and has five touchdowns (four rushing and one receiving) this season. Robinson should eat in a positive game script.
Final Thoughts: Howell, Fields, McLaurin and Robinson are my favorite Captain/MVP choices tonight. When using Fields in that spot, including Moore in a flex is a must. And when Robinson is the Captain/MVP, using a flex for Washington's DST is an ideal move for game-script correlation.
As the disparity in suggested players suggests, unbalanced lineups featuring more Commanders than Bears is my preferred roster construction.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
