Welcome to FantasyPros’ weekly pace and efficiency report. Each week of the season, we’ll survey trends in snap count totals while examining pace and efficiency data. Opportunity is king in fantasy football, and teams that run more plays have more opportunities to score fantasy points.
Snap counts are the product of pace and efficiency, so examining each factor provides insight into future game environments, changes in coaching philosophy, and offensive growth or decline throughout the season.
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Fantasy Football Week 10 NFL Pace & Efficiency Preview (2023)
Teams Projected for High Week 10 Snap Counts
The Colts have sneakily become a higher-volume team since Gardner Minshew took over at QB, and they have a terrific matchup this week. The New England Patriots are bereft of any offensive talent, evidenced by their paltry 11.4 CER. The only concerning factor is that this is a Germany game, where we tend to see lower-scoring games. Still, I like the Colts to run 65+ plays.
I can’t remember a team that has played in more weird game scripts than the current Cowboys. This week, Dallas figures to have another crazy one, as they are 16.5-point favorites over the divisional-rival New York Giants. The Giants will likely be starting Tommy DeVito (no relation to Danny), so expect another dreadful showing from their offense. All of this points to the Cowboys running an extremely high number of plays.
As much as Arthur Smith tilts us weekly, this Falcons team produces a ton of opportunity. They now rank sixth in plays/60 minutes to go with the NFL’s seventh fastest pace. Their opponent, the Arizona Cardinals, will start Kyler Murray in his first game in almost a year since tearing his ACL. Maybe we see prime Murray return, but I have my doubts that this offense will click immediately. I like the Falcons to have a lot of plays run in this contest.
Teams Projected for Low Week 10 Snap Counts
Chicago Bears & Carolina Panthers
I have no idea how this got scheduled on primetime, and even as a Chicago Bears fan, I sincerely wish it wasn’t. This matchup features arguably the two worst teams in the NFL, both with team matchup scores below 35 this week and CERs under 40. Additionally, the game total is set at just 39.5. If it is possible to avoid playing players in this game, I’d recommend doing so, aside from Adam Thielen and DJ Moore.
They’re not playing the Chiefs this week, so we can safely project Denver to have a poor outing. The Broncos have run the fewest plays/60 minutes in the NFL this season and play a Bills team in an obvious bounce-back spot. I like the Bills to remind us who they are and shut down the Broncos.
Notes & Trends
- The biggest riser in CER this week is the Houston Texans. Rookie QB C.J. Stroud had an all-time performance for a first-year player as the Texans came from behind to beat the Buccaneers. We've seen the peaks and valleys with Stroud this year, and while that's expected from rookies, the highs have been impressive. This is an offense to keep an eye on going forward.
- The biggest faller in CER this week is the Arizona Cardinals. Their offense has been quite volatile weekly, but they sunk to a 7.1 CER under Clayton Tune. Cardinals fans should be thrilled to get Murray back this week. Yet, as mentioned previously, don't expect things to mesh immediately.
- The Seattle Seahawks also saw a massive drop in their season-long CER. This offense has been sputtering lately, but they have played some good defenses, like Baltimore and Cleveland. Luckily, they have an obvious get-right spot against the Commanders on Sunday.
**Composite Efficiency Score is a statistic I created using regression analysis of the efficiency metrics on the table.
*** Matchup score is a weighted metric that accounts for a team's pace, efficiency and defense, as well as their opponent's, to show which matchup is most conducive for running a high number of plays.