The last game in Week 13 is likely to be an uncompetitive affair. Sadly, the Bengals are an unimposing team without Joe Burrow. Thus, they have only a few viable DFS options. The Jaguars are on a roll and have many stellar options as the heavily favored hosts.
Game: Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars
Spread: JAC -8.5
Over/Under: 38.5 Points
Bengals Analysis: The Bengals have an implied total of only 15.0 points. It's entirely reasonable to grab Tanner Hudson as the cheapest useful player and save the remaining cap space for Jacksonville's players. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Hudson was targeted 15 times on 47 routes since Week 10, converting the targets and route participation into 14 receptions and 100 scoreless yards.
Spending a bit more salary to roster Tyler Boyd instead of Hudson is appealing. According to The 33rd Team, Boyd has had an 83.0% slot rate this season, and the Jaguars have struggled mightily against slots, permitting them 30.5 DraftKings points per game and 26.7 FanDuel points per game since Week 9. Boyd should be busy as a safety valve, even as Cincinnati's No. 3 wideout.
Ja'Marr Chase is an elite talent and turned two tipped balls into production in Jake Browning's start last week. Cincinnati's No. 1 wideout had a 24.0% target share, four receptions and 81 receiving yards in Week 12. Chase can overcome Cinci's talent deficiency at quarterback. At the same time, he's not a must-use player.
Browning was an underwhelming college quarterback at Washington in college. He also has a low ceiling. Nevertheless, according to RotoViz's pace app, the Bengals have passed on an NFL-high 69% of their plays in neutral game scripts since Week 11. In addition, the Jaguars have faced a 61% pass rate in neutral game scripts since Week 10, coughing up 254.7 passing yards per game, seven passing touchdowns, 15.3 rushing yards per game and one rushing touchdown with zero interceptions.
The matchup and projected passing volume for Browning are reasons to consider him on this showdown slate. He's not a must-use player, though.
Jaguars Analysis: In three games since Jacksonville's bye in Week 9, they've had a 57% pass rate in neutral game scripts. On the other side, Cincinnati's opponents have had a 59% pass rate in neutral game scripts since Week 9. The game is unlikely to stay close.
Nevertheless, Trevor Lawrence has been outstanding since stumbling against the 49ers in Week 10. In two subsequent contests, he's completed 67.1% of his 70 pass attempts for 626 yards, 8.9 yards per attempt, three passing touchdowns, one interception, seven big-time throws and one turnover-worthy play. He also ran five times for 17 yards and three touchdowns. Lawrence is a no-brainer pick in cash games and an elite choice in GPPs.
Calvin Ridley has come to life after an up-and-down start to his tenure with the Jaguars. During Lawrence's two-game heater, Ridley was first on the Jaguars in routes (68), targets (15), receptions (12), receiving yards (192) and receiving touchdowns (three).
He can stay hot in an unimposing matchup from the perimeter and the slot. First, Ridley has had 61.1% wide and 38.6% slot rates this season. Second, the Bengals have allowed 17.0 DK points per game and 14.4 FD points per game to perimeter wideouts since Week 9, and they've allowed 19.9 DK points per game and 17.1 FD points per game to slots.
The more favorable matchup for slots is ideal for Christian Kirk. He's had a 79.8% slot rate this season. Kirk also hasn't disappeared with the emergence of Ridley. In Jacksonville's two most recent games, Kirk was second on the Jaguars in routes (66), second in receiving yards (137), third in targets (12) and third in receptions (seven).
Evan Engram has no touchdown potential since he's not used inside scoring territory. Still, he's a useful target sponge with an outstanding matchup this week. The speedy tight end has been third on the Jaguars in routes (62), second in targets (14), second in receptions (nine) and third in receiving yards (78) since Week 11.
And, again, the matchup is mouthwatering. Since Week 9, tight ends have smashed the Bengals for 7.3 receptions per game and 82.3 receiving yards per game. Engram can give them fits.
Luke Farrell is cheaper access to Cincinnati's susceptibility against tight ends. He wasn't a productive pass catcher in college or through his first two seasons as a pro. Farrell was a surprisingly effective option lately, netting seven targets for five receptions and 76 yards on 11 routes in the previous two weeks. Moreover, Farrell converted his only target inside the 10-yard line into a touchdown, and his one target in that area matched Engram's total this season. He'll eventually become a pumpkin, but the matchup might extend his DFS utility for one more week.
Travis Etienne is banged up but expected to play. The speedy running back could have his workload limited if it's a lopsided win for the Jags, putting D'Ernest Johnson in the mix as a punt. Still, Etienne has big-play ability, even if it hasn't been on display lately. Etienne is tied for ninth among running backs in 20-plus yard rushes this year, with five. Jacksonville's top running back has also popped two rushes for 30-plus yards.
He has a mouthwatering matchup against the Bengals. Running backs have steamrolled the Bengals for 104.5 rushing yards per game, 4.8 yards per carry, four rushing touchdowns, 3.8 receptions per game and 19.3 receiving yards per game since Week 9. Obviously, the matchup is also outstanding for Johnson, who could salt the game away if the Jaguars are boat-racing the Bengals.
Final Thoughts: The top Captain/MVP options are Lawrence and Etienne. Ridley is the only other choice for the role, alone in the second tier. Jaguars onslaught lineups are the best construction, but sprinkling in a balanced lineup, using Chase and Browning, is an intriguing GPP move for gamers entering multiple lineups.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
