The most straightforward path to a pitcher busting in fantasy baseball is an injury. No one has a crystal ball to determine who will be injured. Yet, at a position where injuries are inherent, drafting a pitcher already dealing with an ailment is a risky proposition. The upcoming two pitchers have an average draft position (ADP) inside approximately the top 50 picks and aren’t entirely healthy.
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Bust Pitchers
Kevin Gausman (SP – TOR) | 31.0 ADP
Kevin Gausman has shoulder fatigue, which briefly shut him down from throwing. He initially said he’d be ready to go for the regular season. However, even though he resumed throwing, he’s a little behind.
Pete Walker joined Sportsnet’s #BlueJays broadcast and updated on Kevin Gausman (shoulder fatigue):
“He had a great side session today.. he’s a little bit behind.. If he’s not there in the beginning (season), he’ll be there soon after.”
– Hazel Mae (@thehazelmae) March 12, 2024
It’s encouraging Gausman has resumed throwing, but a shoulder issue, albeit labeled as only fatigue, is discouraging for a pitcher drafted in the third round of most fantasy baseball drafts. He’s been a workhorse in recent seasons, pitching 192.0, 174.2 and 185.0 innings since 2021.
Gausman has also posted electrifying surface stats, ranking as the 13th-most valuable pitcher in our value-based-ranking (VBR) metric in 2023. He’s the sixth-ranked pitcher in ADP this year, which isn’t outrageous relative to his stats last year, but it is when also considering the shoulder fatigue.
Moreover, Gausman’s underlying stats didn’t quite align with his sparkling surface stats. According to FanGraphs, Gausman had a 3.16 ERA, 3.87 xERA, 3.22 xFIP and 3.34 SIERA in 2023. The righty’s xERA was his highest since 2019. The veteran righty’s 29.6 CSW% was also his lowest mark since 2019, and it continued a trend of slipping from his 31.0 CSW% in 2019 and 2020 to 29.8% in his first season with the Blue Jays in 2022. In addition, Gausman’s 7.2 BB% was much higher than his 3.9 BB% in 2022 and his highest mark since 2017.
None of Gausman’s underlying data is bad in isolation. However, it’s reasonable to nitpick a player selected in the first three rounds, namely one who’s not 100% healthy. Gausman can live up to expectations accompanying a top-36 pick, but there are enough blemishes to allow someone else to take a chance on him and pivot to a healthier stud.
Devin Williams (RP – MIL) | 50.6 ADP
Devin Williams was the second-most valuable relief pitcher last season, trailing only Felix Bautista. Bautista had Tommy John surgery late last year, and Williams has the earliest ADP among relievers this season. He’s one of just four relievers with an ADP inside the top 70 picks.
Milwaukee’s ace reliever has a 1.89 ERA in 214 innings in the majors since debuting in 2019. At a blush, Williams’s ADP is fair. However, the righty’s 1.53 ERA in 2023 was considerably lower than his 2.75 xERA, 2.79 xFIP and 2.93 SIERA. Obviously, sub-3.00 ERA estimators are nothing to turn your nose up at.
However, his other underlying data isn’t perfect. While excellent, Williams’s 37.7 K% in 2023 was his lowest mark since pitching 13.2 innings when he debuted in 2019. The ace reliever’s 32.9 CSW% last season was his lowest since 2019. His 56.7 F-Strike% was tied for his lowest mark, 35.2 Zone% was the second-lowest, 69.2 Z-Swing% was the second-highest and 34.2 O-Swing% was the second-lowest. The combination of underwhelming plate discipline numbers relative to Williams’s typical dominance is noteworthy.
Still, Williams is featured primarily because of a back issue. He recently sought a second opinion for his stiffness. Any missed time or slippage in his performance would make it nearly impossible for Williams to deliver value commensurate with his ADP.
Update: Williams’ back injury is worse than expected. He has two stress fractures.
Milwaukee Brewers star closer Devin Williams has two stress fractures in his back and is expected to miss around three months, sources tell ESPN. Williams pitched through back soreness in September, but it returned earlier this spring. He’ll rehab and should return by midseason.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) March 14, 2024
Milwaukee’s closer’s ADP will obviously plummet with this news. Still, Williams is a dreadful injured list (IL) stash. Williams will miss multiple months if everything goes according to plan, and any setback could cost him the entire season. He’ll also be difficult to trust immediately upon his activation from the IL unless he dominates on a rehab assignment. Gamers should allow someone else to take a high-risk, low-reward swing on Williams in fantasy drafts.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
