Fantasy Football Draft Value Risers: Kyle Pitts, Joe Mixon, Derrick Henry

With NFL Free Agency largely in the rearview, it’s time to look at fantasy football draft values. There were players that were helped and others hurt during the NFL free agency process. Let’s look into a few notable names below.

Players Trending Up

Kyle Pitts (TE – ATL)

One of the biggest sources of frustration over the last three years has been Kyle Pitts, who was viewed as a generational talent coming out of college with people arguing you could draft him at the 1.01 in Superflex rookie drafts, despite quarterbacks being so valuable. What nobody saw coming, however, was Arthur Smith, a man content to pour high-end draft capital into offensive weapons and then just let them languish under horrendously average quarterback play. In 2022, only 59% of Pitts’ targets were deemed catchable, way down from the league average of 79%. Despite increasing to 69% in 2023, it was still well below the league average. Pitts finally has a good quarterback for the first time in his NFL career and will be in a more pass-focused attack. Kirk Cousins has helped Jordan Reed and TJ Hockenson get to the cusp of 1,000-yard seasons. The new coaching staff needs Cousins to target Pitts plenty so they can evaluate his future with the team. It’s now or never for Pitts.

Joe Mixon (RB – HOU)

The writing was on the wall for Joe Mixon in Cincinnati. After seven years with various off-the-field headlines and the team searching for more explosivity, a change of scenery was needed for all involved. However, most people didn’t expect Mixon to latch onto a new team in the Texans quite as quickly as he did or for said new team to reward him with a three-year contract for $27 million. The Texans provide no competition for Mixon outside of Dameon Pierce, who failed to impress under the new offensive scheme in 2023, finishing the year as a special teams-only player. Mixon relies on high-value touches like receptions and touchdowns at this point in his career. With little competition, though, he should still survive as a top-24 RB for at least one more year.

Derrick Henry (RB – BAL)

It’s uncommon for 30-year-old running backs to get multi-year deals in the NFL. Derrick Henry has been unusual at every point of his career, though. Henry has faced 120 more eight-man boxes than the next nearest running back over the last three years. While that could work against Tennessee, two-time MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson ranked first in EPA against loaded boxes last year and will keep defenses more honest. Henry continues to be excellent after contact and while his yards per game has decreased for four straight years to 68.6, he still hasn’t rushed for fewer than 4.2 yards per carry across any season of his career. Henry has scored double-digit touchdowns in six straight years and now gets to run as part of an offense that helped Gus Edwards score 13 touchdowns in 2023.

NFL defenders halfway through a game with Lamar Jackson & Derrick Henry in the same backfield: pic.twitter.com/s5fa2K2jwQ

— Sleeper (@SleeperHQ) March 12, 2024