This week has been carnage from an injury standpoint. Most of my teams have four full IL slots, but we’re fortunate to be able to play DFS. That allows us to avoid these unfortunate injuries and even capitalize on some of them from a DFS perspective. We have a large Saturday slate to dissect, so let’s go ahead and get into it!
This week has been carnage from an injury standpoint. Most of my teams have four full IL slots, but we’re fortunate to be able to play DFS. That allows us to avoid these unfortunate injuries and even capitalize on some of them from a DFS perspective. We have a large Saturday slate to dissect, so let’s go ahead and get into it!
Today’s MLB DFS & Player Props Picks
Saturday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
| PLAYER |
DK SALARY |
FD SALARY |
VALUE |
RISK |
| Jordan Hicks (SF) vs. PIT |
$7,700 |
$8,600 |
Low |
Medium |
| Aaron Civale (TB) at CWS |
$9,100 |
$10,100 |
Medium |
Medium |
| Edward Cabrera (MIA) vs. WAS |
$9,700 |
$8,800 |
Medium |
Medium |
Jordan Hicks (SF) vs. PIT
This could be a pitcher’s duel in San Fran because Hicks has broken out as a starter this year. The hard-throwing righty has a 1.61 ERA and 0,93 WHIP, allowing two runs or fewer in all five starts. That’s no surprise when you consider his ballpark, and it looks even better since we expect some positive regression in the strikeout department. Pittsburgh was a top offense in the opening weeks, but they’ve been 26th in OPS over the last three weeks.
Aaron Civale (TB) at CWS
We want to use any pitcher against the White Sox right now. Chicago sits last in runs scored, OBP, OPS, wOBA, and xwOBA. That’s hard to believe, but it makes Civale a sensational option against them. The Rays righty has a 3.54 ERA and 1.17 WHIP since the start of last season, scoring at least 37 FanDuel points in three of his five starts. We expect that to be his floor against the worst offense in baseball.
Edward Cabrera (MIA) vs. WAS
Cabrera struggled in his last start, but this guy is nasty. The young Miami arm has 17 strikeouts through 11 innings so far this season and can be one of the best pitchers in baseball if he limits the walk. He had an 11.0 K/9 rate over his final 19 starts last year and should mow down Washington’s woeful offense. The Nats rank 20th in wOBA and 28th in runs scored, with Cabrera scoring 33 FD points in their most recent meeting.
Suggested Lineup Stacks
The Rays are always a sneaky stack with all the cheap bats they possess, but they become even more attractive against a guy like Cannon. The White Sox righty allowed six runs and 10 baserunners in his most recent start and had a 5.28 ERA and 1.57 WHIP between Double-A and Triple-A. He’s simply a fill-in arm and could be rocked by this underrated Rays lineup.
St. Louis has had one of the worst offenses in baseball, but this is a great spot to get them on track. The reason for that is the matchup with Houser, who has amassed a 7.45 ERA and 1.76 WHIP this year. That’s less fluky since he’s flirting with a 1.50 WHIP over the last three years, and it feels like a matter of time before he loses his spot in the rotation.
Core Studs
- Trout has been on fire to start the year, leading the league with 11 dingers. We know this guy can finish with 50-60 bombs, and we don’t want to fade that power surge against Chris Paddack. The Twins righty has a 5.57 ERA and 1.67 WHIP, which would be even worse if he didn’t have one outlier against the White Sox.
- Soto is the frontrunner for AL MVP, generating a .430 OBP and .991 OPS. Those might look like outlandish averages, but they’re not far off Soto’s career averages. He’s also been better against right-handers throughout his career, collecting a .966 OPS against them over the last three years. Not to mention, Joe Ross has a 4.73 ERA and 1.42 WHIP since 2017.
- J-Rod got off to a nightmarish start, but this superstar is rolling right now. The slugger has a .977 OPS across his last nine games, recording five steals in that span. That elite power-speed combo makes him one of the best options in fantasy, and we love that he faces a TBD for an undermanned Arizona rotation.
- The Cards offense has been a disaster, but Arenado is trying his best to get them out of this hole. The former All-Star has a .379 OBP and .822 OPS across his last 21 games. He’s the only hot hitter in this lineup, and we have to trust him if we want to stack St. Louis against Houser.
Value Plays/Punts
- Palacios has been a sneaky option in this Tampa lineup, batting third or fourth whenever they face a righty. The young outfielder has earned that with his splits, sporting a .387 OBP and .810 OPS against right-handers this year. We love that when looking at his dirt-cheap price tag, especially against one of the worst pitchers on this slate.
- Gorman has struggled with the rest of this St. Louis lineup, but he’s always a worthy bet against right-handers. He had 27 homers in a breakout 2023 season and always bats in the heart of this order when they face a righty. His splits look even when evaluating the stat sheet, but it’s hard to overlook a guy who flirted with a .500 SLG and .200 ISO last year.
- Abreu is scorching hot for the BoSox right now. He’s actually been inserted into the cleanup spot because of all the injuries, totaling a .462 OBP and 1.143 OPS over his last 13 games. He also has four steals in that span and truly looks like a potential 25-25 player in a full-time role. We also don’t know who’s pitching for Chicago, but that means Wilyer will face a minor-league arm!
- Kirilloff has always been a great option whenever Minnesota faces righties. They choose to bat Kirilloff third or fourth in these circumstances, with the lefty masher falling just shy of a .850 OPS against righties since the start of last year. That form should continue against Jose Soriano, who never pitched above Double-A before becoming a reliever last year and posted a 4.45 ERA and 1.48 WHIP between Single-A and Double-A.
Sunday’s Top 3 Underdog Fantasy and PrizePicks Player Props
We expect Gorman to have a successful day at the plate, so he shouldn’t strike out too often. If he gets on base twice, he has to avoid two strikeouts in his other two appearances. That seems likely against a pitcher who’s only projected for four Ks, especially since Gorman might get pulled late if a lefty comes in the game. That would be a best-case scenario for this prop.
Cabrera has easily surpassed this total in his first two starts, posting a 13.9 K/9 rate. We don’t expect him to maintain that rate, but it should be easier against one of the worst offenses in baseball.
Casey Mize: 3.5 Strikeouts – Higher (x0.85)
This prop is too low. Not only is Mize facing a subpar Kansas City lineup, but he has surpassed this total in three of four starts this season.
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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.
