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Charles Schwab Challenge: One-and-Done Picks & Predictions

Charles Schwab Challenge: One-and-Done Picks & Predictions

After watching Xander Schauffele record his first major win at Valhalla by one stroke during the 2024 PGA Championship on Sunday, the PGA Tour heads south again to Fort Worth, Texas. A field of 132 golfers is set to tee off at a renovated Colonial Country Club course, which underwent extensive restoration efforts overseen by Gil Hanse this past year.

Playing as a par 70, just like previous years, green locations and length are several new additions. Water hazards are prominent, especially around the greens, which have been converted to bentgrass surfaces, the same putting surface we saw at Augusta National and Valhalla during both majors. Last year, two unlikely golfers emerged to compete in a two-hole playoff on Sunday, as Emiliano Grillo beating Adam Schenk.

Scottie Scheffler remains the odds-on betting favorite at Colonial this week after finishing 6-under-par to record his tenth top-ten finish of the season at Valhalla. Scheffler carded a T3 finish at 7-under-par, just one stroke behind the playoff duo at Colonial last year. The World No. 1 isn’t the only Texas native in the field, as Jordan Spieth, who won the 2016 Charles Schwab Challenge, will look to bounce back from a stretch of poor play in front of family and friends in this hometown event.

In this article, we highlight golfers worth using in one-and-done and survivor contests during the 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge. The higher a player finishes on the leaderboard, the more points get awarded to a manager’s season-long tally. There can only be one golfer selected, so choose wisely! Make sure to follow me on X @Matt_MacKay_ for more free betting insights and advice throughout the week!

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Big Guns

Scottie Scheffler
If Scottie Scheffler is still available, he’s a no-brainer to use at Colonial this week. A T3 finish at this event in 2023, combined with his current form, recording all four of his outright wins since the Arnold Palmer Invitational on March 10th, makes Scheffler a slam-dunk play in all one-and-done leagues. It helps that he’s ranked fifth in all strokes gained metrics, minus putting, so don’t hesitate to insert Scheffler.

Tony Finau
Tony Finau has performed well at Colonial, although he’s coming off of a missed cut at this event in 2023. Finau ranks fourth in strokes gained: approaching the green and is equipped with a powerful driver.

Ranked 15th for greens in regulation rate and 17th in hole proximity, Finau’s putter is the only liability to worry about. He’s averaging over 4.3 birdies per round this season, so with multiple top-5 and top-20 finishes at Colonial over the years, using Finau this week makes a lot of sense.

Secondary Options

Sungjae Im
We’ve seen a mixed bag from Sungjae Im at Colonial in the past four years. The South Korean golfer has alternated between missed cuts and T15 and T10 finishes. Up until Valhalla, where he missed the cut, Im had been rounding into form, recording T12 and T4 finishes at RBC Heritage and the Wells Fargo Championship, both Signature Events.

His strength lies in the driver, ranking 31st strokes gained: off-the-tee and 42nd for driver accuracy rate. The putter isn’t good but it’s also far from terrible, plus, Im is 27th in sand save percentage, meaning he can get out of bad lies around the green to scramble and save par. This could be the week where it all comes together for Im, making him a valuable secondary option in survivor leagues.

Austin Eckroat
Austin Eckroat hasn’t slowed down much since his first PGA Tour win at the Cognizant Classic this year. Yes, it was his only top-ten win, but Eckroat performed well at Colonial during his debut in 2023, recording a T16 finish at 2-under-par.

Equipped with accuracy off the tee, plus ranking 42nd or better in strokes gained: approaching the green, off-the-tee, and tee-to-green, Eckroat is already gaining steam in the outright winner betting market. Three top-20 finishes in his last four events display the confidence Eckroat’s playing with following his win in early March, so he’s another viable option to deploy at Colonial this week.

Sneaky Plays

Aaron Rai
A T12 finish from Aaron Rai at Colonial in 2023 was a huge bounce-back effort from barely making the cut and finishing 68th in 2022. The Englishman has only been on the PGA Tour for two years, but he does have five international wins under his belt.

Rai ranks 10th strokes gained: approaching the green and 14th strokes gained: tee-to-green. Finding greens in regulation and getting close to the hole are other strengths that he possesses, so he’s a sneaky play to deploy ahead of Round 1 at Colonial.

Thomas Detry
Belgian golfer, Thomas Detry, is heating up and looking strong coming off of a T4 finish at the second major of the season. Detry has three top-ten finishes since the Houston Open at the end of March, including three top-five finishes since the season began in January.

Ranked 10th strokes gained: putting, he holds an edge over a lot of golfers in this field due to his talent with the flat stick. Detry’s approach game isn’t great, but he is 59th strokes gained off-the-tee, creating opportunities by finding fairways. Birdies tend to follow Detry around a course, since he’s top-20 in all of the most important putting metrics. Par 3s and Par 5s are where he particularly excels, but he’ll need to keep his scoring average low heading past the cut to maximize the points earned by using him in one-and-done leagues.

Favorite One-And-Done: Max Homa

Max Homa has two top-ten finishes since The Masters, but it feels like we haven’t heard much from him lately. It could be due to the T35 finish at Valhalla during the PGA Championship, going 3-under-par or higher in all four rounds. Or, it may be recent memory bias watching the Californian implode mid-way through Sunday’s final round at Augusta National.

Either way, Homa should produce solid results at Colonial this week. He’s gone T23 and T9 in his last two outings at the Charles Schwab Challenge and ranks 35th strokes gained: off-the-tee and 24th strokes gained: around the green. Homa is still averaging over 34 percent for birdie or better conversion rate in 2024, ranked 30th, while also 32nd in sand save percentage.

Homa has been great in Round 1 this year, but the final three rounds have seen him regress. He’s 48th in bogey avoidance and 19th for par 3 birdie or better leaders, so at a tough, lengthy par 70 like Colonial, Homa should have little difficulty staying near the top of the leaderboard to award managers with a flurry of points this week.

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Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for BettingPros & FantasyPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.

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