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Fantasy Football Advice from the Most Accurate Experts: Regression Candidates

Fantasy Football Advice from the Most Accurate Experts: Regression Candidates

As the fantasy football season comes to a close, it’s time to reflect on some of the standout performances from 2024. While a few players delivered league-winning heroics, others may have overachieved beyond their true value. To help you plan for 2025, we asked the 2024 most accurate ranking experts which player performances they believe are unsustainable and why they’ll be avoiding these players in next year’s drafts. Their insights will give you an edge in identifying potential traps and building a stronger roster.

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2025 Regression Candidates

Which player’s 2024 production do you feel was unsustainable that you’ll avoid in 2025 and why?

James Cook (RB – BUF)

“Running backs have a propensity for inconsistent touchdown production, meaning top touchdown scorers often get overdrafted. James Cook topped the league with 16 rushing touchdowns after managing only 2 in his rookie season. Meanwhile, Cook had the least total touches of all top 17 RBs in 2024, getting by on incredibly high efficiency. Regression is a major risk, especially with Josh Allen likely to return to his usual touchdown-poaching ways in 2025.”
Ben Wasley (The Fantasy First Down)

James Cook is an incredibly explosive RB on an explosive offense. We greatly under projected his ceiling this season, and he won leagues for people who drafted him. But 18 total TDs simply aren’t sustainable. 2024 marked Josh Allen‘s fewest passing TDs and, BY FAR, his fewest pass attempts since 2019, while the Bills ran for TDs at the highest rate since his rookie season. Cook had 10 TDs in 27 career games heading into this season, so 18 TDs in 16 games is a bit of an outlier that will cause him to be over-drafted next season.”
Nick Zylak (Fantasy Football Advice)

James Cook was the RB7 in 2024 with 1009 rushing yards (4.9 yards per attempt), 16 rushing touchdowns, two receiving touchdowns, 258 receiving yards, and zero fumbles lost. Of his 16 rushing TDs this season, only two of them were from inside the 10-yard line. Cooks is very much a two-down, between the 10’s running back. He only tallied 207 rushing attempts and 38 targets while conceding goal-line carries to Ray Davis and third-down targets to Ty Johnson. Cook clearly has talent and probably deserves more opportunity, but the Bills really like their other two running backs, and Josh Allen is always going to be the first option inside the 5-yard line. ”
Kev Wheeler (Wheel Route FF)

James Cook: Speaking of unsustainability, Cook’s league-high 16 rushing touchdowns were 12 more than he had in his first two seasons combined. Last year’s RB8 is highly efficient (career 4.9 YPC and 9.1 Y/R) with his opportunities, but Cook’s workload and non-TD production actually declined year over year — 30 fewer carries, 16 fewer targets, 12 fewer receptions, and 300 fewer scrimmage yards in 2024. “Avoid” is too strong of a descriptor for Cook, but Josh Allen‘s prowess near the goal line (27 rushing scores over the past two seasons) and the potential of a workload bump for Ray Davis means I’ll likely have less exposure to Cook than I did last year.”
Kevin Hanson (EDSFootball)

David Montgomery (RB – DET)

David Montgomery scored 12 touchdowns in 14 games, propelling him to an RB13 finish in fantasy points per game (half-point PPR). Some TD regression seems inevitable. Also, Jahmyr Gibbs is so extraordinarily talented that it would be coaching malpractice for the Lions to let Montgomery once again have a snap share north of 40%. And with the departure of offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, who left to become the Bears’ head coach, we should probably expect at least a small step backward for the Detroit offense. Montgomery is apt to be overpriced in 2025 drafts.”
Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)

Jerry Jeudy (WR – CLE)

Jerry Jeudy. Unless Jameis Winston is the starting quarterback for the Browns in 2025, or the passing volume stays around 40 pass attempts per game, I’m not interested. Jeudy had a successful 2024 campaign based on high passing volume, and I expect the Browns to return to the run game as a priority with a fully healthy Nick Chubb.”
Kyle Krajewski (First Seed Sports)

Saquon Barkley (RB – NYG)

Saquon Barkley ran for more touchdowns of 10 or more yards than any players in the past 15 years. If you remove those kinds of runs from all running backs, he would have finished as RB9 this past season. He can still be a league leader in long touchdown runs while also seeing some regression. He will likely be a top-3 draft pick, but I would be more comfortable with him in the middle of the first round.”
Nathan Jahnke (Pro Football Focus)

Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS)

“I have to go with Terry McLaurin. He finished as the overall WR6 in Half-PPR in 2024, and that feels highly unlikely to repeat next season. McLaurin finished 22nd among wide receivers in targets and 15th in yards. Those baselines are more indicative of what he should contribute in 2025. Expecting him to finish second in the league in receiving touchdowns is a lousy bet. I think McLaurin will be a mid-range WR2 in 12-team leagues next season.”
Mick Ciallela (Fantrax)

Jahmyr Gibbs (RB – DET)

Jahmyr Gibbs: With the loss of Ben Johnson, I fear the entire offense will take a hit in production. As for Gibbs, his end-of-season surge was exciting and league-winning, but he won’t return on his ADP in the mid-first round next year.”
Marc Shannep (Fantasy Knockout)

Jameson Williams (WR – DET)

Jameson Williams finished as the WR19 in Half-PPR formats despite catching just 58 of his 91 targets over 15 games. He broke out because his 17.3 yards per reception were higher than any other WR in the Top 50 except for Alec Pierce, who averaged 22.3 yards per reception on just 37 catches. Williams scored seven touchdowns and had 17 receptions of more than 20 yards while adding 61 yards and a touchdown on the ground. Some think this was the breakout we’ve been waiting for from Williams. I think it might be his ceiling, depending on what happens with the Lions offense in 2025. OC Ben Johnson is gone, and there are rumors that QB coach Mark Brunell could be a part of either Johnson’s staff in Chicago or Aaron Glenn’s staff with the Jets. And without Johnson and Brunell running that offense and maximizing QB Jared Goff, who knows what that offense looks like next year. If we’re projecting even a slight regression for that offense, I don’t think I’ll be gambling on a boom or bust option like Jameson Williams.”
– Mike Maher (FantasyPros)

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