Fantasy Baseball Busts: Luis Castillo, Randy Arozarena, Willy Adames

Busts come in all shapes and sizes. Some of them are declining naturally due to age, some had a season-long run of luck and others are no longer in favorable conditions.

Favorable conditions could mean different things, but, primarily, leaving either a great home park or playing in a weaker offense, which cannot act as a crutch for lesser players.

The biggest busts are those that suffer injuries, but I already covered the biggest injury risks for 2025 here. Below are busts to avoid at their current average draft position (ADP).

Fantasy Baseball Busts

Willy Adames (SS – SF) | ADP: 68

Willy Adames is a former top prospect who found his footing in Milwaukee after a tumultuous start to his career with the Rays. The most notable factor of his time in Tampa was the difficulty he had hitting in Tropicana Field.

Adames noted his difficulty in “seeing the ball” when playing at home, which led to massive splits. Adames was awful at home. In his final full season with the Rays, he posted a 64 wRC+ at home and a 173 wRC+ on the road.

This season, Adames moves from the neutral confines of Miller Park (14th in FanGraphs’ park factor) to Oracle Park (24th). Whether this will impact him significantly like the change from Tropicana to Miller is to be determined.

However, note Adames’ splits since joining the Brewers:

	HOME	AWAY
2022	113 wRC+	104 wRC+
2023	107 wRC+	81 wRC+
2024	125 wRC+	115 wRC+

Every full season in Milwaukee is favorable to Adames’ home splits. Also, the National League West is baseball’s best division this season with some of the league’s best pitchers between every team (aside from the Rockies). Adames will face much tougher competition with a worse home park to hit in. Fade him in drafts unless there is a significant fall.

Luis Castillo (SP – SEA) | ADP: 79

Luis Castillo is an odd case for 2025 as his name has been in trade rumors all offseason. The 32-year-old starting pitcher is still very good but the Mariners may shop him this season. A trade is the worst possible outcome for a pitcher like Castillo, who benefits from the friendly home confines of T-Mobile Park.

Both Statcast park factors and FanGraphs place the Mariners’ home field as the most advantageous for pitching. Claims of Castillo’s past success in a hitter-friendly home field like Great American Ball Park would be valid if not for his incremental decline. Castillo’s velocity was two miles-per-hour lower in 2024 than his peak in 2020 with the Reds.

If the veteran workhorse stays in Seattle, he should be great and return plenty of value on his investment. However, a move to the hitter-friendly confines of Fenway Park (or anywhere in the American League East) could tank his ERA. Castillo, like Adames, is better left as a soft fade given the risk of new parks.

Randy Arozarena (OF – SEA) | ADP: 122

Randy Arozarena is experiencing the opposite effect of the aforementioned Luis Castillo. Arozarena moved from Tampa Bay to Seattle after a tumultuous start to the season that ended as the worst of his career. While he did post a higher wRC+ (122) in Seattle than in Tampa Bay, Arozarena’s power dropped and his strikeout rate rose from 24.7% to 28.5%.

Arozarena’s boost in Seattle derived from an increased batting average driven by a batting average on balls in play (BABIP) closer to his career average (.318). He is capable of sustaining a higher BABIP given his speed, but, according to Baseball Savant, Arozarena’s sprint speed is declining every season and is far from the 90th percentile he reached in earlier years.

Arozarena only stole four bases in 54 games with the Mariners whereas he stole 16 bags in 100 games with the Rays. Whether that dip sustains remains to be seen but the signs are not pretty when projecting Arozarena for 2025.