Fantasy Baseball Injury Risks: Draft or Fade? (2025)

While my Twitter/X handle may be @RotoSurgeon, I am not a doctor nor medically licensed in any capacity. The analysis in this article is sourced from actual medical professionals online who provide injury timelines.

Predicting who will or won’t get hurt is not my business. However, we can view who has been hurt in recent history and consider how that injury may or may not impact a player. Severe issues like ligament damage or recurring/nagging issues are always worth noting when paying up for any player.

Injuries are the worst part of any sport. The fantasy baseball impact is a microcosm of their atrocious nature but we do have to consider them for this game.

Fantasy Baseball Injury Risks

Corbin Carroll (OF – ARI) ADP: 11

Corbin Carroll entered the 2024 season with major question marks despite a breakout rookie season. In 2023, Carroll dislocated his shoulder late in the year and tanked his offensive output. Dislocations are “fixable” to a degree but they cause residual damage to ligaments which may require surgery (see: Tatis Jr, Fernando). Regardless, they can be played through in baseball (once again, see: Tatis Jr, Fernando).

Through the first half of 2024, he proved doubters (such as myself), extremely correct only to make up for a lost season in the last three months. The Diamondbacks made a savvy decision in transitioning Carroll from centerfield to right field in early July that paid dividends.

From Opening Day to July 3:

359 PA, 2 HR, 14 SB, 49 runs, 23 RBI

.210 AVG / .302 OBP / .309 SLG

From July 4 to September 29:

325 PA, 20 HR, 21 SB, 72 runs, 51 RBI

.255 AVG / .344 OBP / .564 SLG

Is Carroll “cured” in his new position? No. The risk of surgery with another dislocation is high and that is a tough choice to make in the first round. While he should continue to play well while “healthy” and perform much closer to the second half of 2024 than the first half, the cost is far too high given the risk.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. (3B/OF – NYY) ADP: 36

Chisholm Jr. set a career-high by playing 147 games in 2024. He is always banged up but managed to stay mostly healthy last season. However, “mostly” is doing some heavy lifting as Chisholm Jr. damaged his elbow’s UCL in mid-August. Chisholm Jr. injured his arm on a slide and was not the same hitter upon return. Surgery for his elbow sprain was on the table at the time, yet ultimately avoided.

Chisholm hit seven homers in his first 14 games as a Yankee. After returning from IL, he hit six in the following 46 games (including 14 postseason games). Playing through an elbow injury is more manageable than a shoulder injury for hitters but they can cause a dip in performance as well. There is no guarantee that this issue impacts Chisholm this season but he does become more susceptible to re-injury which could lead to season-ending surgery.

Gerrit Cole (SP – NYY) ADP: 43

The Yankees’ ace suffered an elbow injury last preseason and was not active until June. While the injury was not related to his UCL, the 34-year-old dealt with nerve inflammation along with fluid build-up. Upon his activation, Cole stayed healthy enough to pitch in 17 regular season games while finishing at least six innings in eight of them. Cole had his worst peripheral stats since 2017 (his final year in Pittsburgh) with a solid, but unspectacular 3.99 xFIP and 3.79 SIERA.

Cole’s five postseason starts looked better on the surface as he managed a spectacular 2.17 ERA through 29 innings pitched. However, his xFIP in this span was a gaudy 5.24. Cole’s velocity was not an issue yet he could not generate strikeouts. A ratio of 22 strikeouts to 10 walks is far from the expectation for someone of Gerrit Cole’s caliber. Between this and his declining regular season performance, it is fair to posit whether he is 100%.

The Yankees are in “win-now” after their postseason run. Despite losing Juan Soto, they still aim for a return to the World Series on the backs of Aaron Judge and Gerrit Cole. If Cole is pitching hurt they will not care given his age, their window of contention, and his contract. Cole declined his opt-out this past offseason and will push to pitch as many innings as possible. Sadly, either that will not be many or the performance will be even worse than 2024.

Framber Valdez (SP – HOU) ADP: 54

According to Chandler Rome of The Athletic, the Astros “have yet to approach Valdez or his agent regarding a contract extension” but this is somewhat fishy. Valdez has pitched five straight seasons with an ERA under 3.60. He turned 31 just two months ago and has thrown at least 175 innings in three straight seasons.

Houston is re-tooling after trading Kyle Tucker and losing Alex Bregman to free agency. Nevertheless, they have talent on the roster between the offense and pitching staff. Wouldn’t it make sense to retain their ace? Valdez has not suffered any elbow or shoulder strains but did experience “soreness” in his elbow last April which resulted in missing nearly one month. The injury could be more than meets the eye despite his stellar performance throughout 2024.

Valdez is not a full fade given the vague nature of this elbow injury and his fringe-elite status yet dropping him down rankings is likely wise.

Mason Miller (RP – ATH) ADP: 71

The A’s have a legitimate star closer…for how long? Miller damaged his elbow early in 2023 and returned to pitch a full season in 2024. Miller was a starter until this injury which forced his conversion into the bullpen. While he has thrived in his new role, Miller may come with a shorter fuse than most hard-throwing relievers.

Miller averaged 101.1 miles per hour on his fastball last season and like Chisholm, may not have his play impacted this season but comes at an elevated risk due to the nature of UCLs which do not fully heal without surgery. Sprains are tears no matter how mild. Miller is an elite closer and playing for an A’s team which should win more games in 2025. He is worth drafting in roto formats after the top tier of closers given the per-game impact but for head-to-head leagues that have playoffs, he is a fade.

Justin Steele (SP- CHC) ADP: 121

In 2023, Justin Steele experienced “throbbing” in his elbow which resulted in a two-week absence. Last year, Steele managed “left flexor tendinitis” in his elbow in August yet returned for two starts in September. Steele’s performance has not been impacted by these injuries but this does not suggest his elbow is fully intact either.

Steele is one of the most underrated pitchers in the league and would be worth drafting ahead of ADP without these injuries. Sadly, they have occurred and we must consider them within our preseason evaluation. Steele is fine to draft if he falls given his level of talent and the fact that his pitching is unaffected thus far but the best course of action would be to trade him shortly after the season in a “sell-high” scenario.

Articles MLB Strategy Corbin Carroll Jazz Chisholm Jr. Gerrit Cole Juan Soto Aaron Judge Framber Valdez Kyle Tucker Alex Bregman Mason Miller Justin Steele