Fantasy Baseball Draft Targets: Roki Sasaki, Andres Munoz, Lucas Erceg, Reynaldo Lopez

The expression “must-have player” has its limits. Gamers shouldn’t reach multiple rounds ahead of average draft position (ADP) for the following pitchers. Reaching too far for a player saps the excess value they provide as undervalued options.

Instead, the highlighted pitchers should be considered priority targets at or slightly ahead of their fantasy baseball ADP.

Fantasy Baseball Must-Draft Pitchers

Roki Sasaki (SP – LAD) | Pitcher 94/117.0 ADP

Roki Sasaki’s pitcher ranking in the headline isn’t a typo. It’s wonky because he doesn’t have an ADP at CBS yet. His ADP ranges from 86 at RTS to 148 at Yahoo.

Sasaki has been a borderline unstoppable force in Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) since debuting as a 19-year-old in 2021. Per Baseball-Reference, Sasaki had the following stats in 64 games and 394.2 innings in NPB:

2.10 ERA
0.89 WHIP
5.7% Walk Rate
32.7% Strikeout Rate

Sasaki didn’t post his brilliant numbers by using smoke and mirrors. Instead, he has an electrifying arsenal. Sasaki consistently pumps 100-mile-per-hour (MPH) heaters and misses bats with his splitter and slider. Sasaki pitched 111 innings last year, reaching as many as 129.1 in 2022.

Thus, the Zeile consensus projections project Sasaki for approximately 135 innings this season. The likely cap on Sasaki’s innings is the biggest knock on him in his debut MLB season. Still, I have him ranked 96th overall (P40), putting a premium on quality over quantity. Ideally, Sasaki should be drafted on a team with at least one reliable workhorse, such as the aforementioned Webb.

Andres Munoz (RP – SEA) | Pitcher 46/119.8 ADP

Andres Munoz has a multi-year track record of fanning batters at an elite level and spinning clean, high-leverage innings. In 199 career appearances and 197 innings, Munoz has a 2.65 ERA, 2.82 xFIP, 2.72 SIERA, 1.05 WHIP, 52.8% ground-ball rate, 9.6% walk rate and a 34.2% strikeout rate.

Last season, among 22 relievers with at least 20 saves, Munoz was sixth in ERA (2.12), 10th in xERA (2.94), sixth in xFIP (2.98), fifth in ground-ball rate (52.4%), tied for sixth in WHIP (0.96), fifth in strikeout rate (33.2%) and second in called strikes plus whiff percentage (34.3 CSW%). Munoz can anchor a fantasy baseball bullpen, and the ECR and I are approximately nine picks and 23 picks, respectively, ahead of Munoz’s overall ADP.

Lucas Erceg (RP – KC) | Pitcher 56/152.6 ADP

Lucas Erceg began his professional career as a position player in 2016 before pivoting to pitching. The transition wasn’t seamless. Instead, he had more downs than ups in the minors from 2021 through 2023 and a shaky big-league debut for the Athletics in 2023.

The light bulb went on for Erceg last season. He got off to an encouraging start to the year in Oakland’s bullpen before kicking it up a notch for the Royals. Erceg saved 11 games in 23 appearances and 25 innings for Kansas City, with a 2.88 ERA, 2.62 xFIP, 2.26 SIERA, 0.84 WHIP, 3.1% walk rate, 32% strikeout rate and 33 CSW%.

Twenty-five innings was a small sample, but his underlying data validated Erceg’s dominance. His 152.6 ADP says drafters don’t fully buy Erceg’s breakout or slept on it, but the pundits aren’t, with an ECR of 131 overall (P50). I’m even more bullish than the ECR. Gamers shouldn’t let Erceg slip past the 12th round. Drafting him in the 11th isn’t outrageous.

Reynaldo Lopez (SP – ATL) | Pitcher 61/162.4 ADP

Reynaldo Lopez’s return to starting after a few years of pitching well in relief couldn’t have gone much better. The Braves got more than they bargained for, and despite an injured list (IL) stint in September, he pitched well after he was activated and signed a multi-year deal with the Braves in the offseason.

Lopez’s 1.99 ERA in 26 appearances (25 starts) spanning 135.2 innings for the Braves in 2024 isn’t sustainable. Still, his 3.94 xERA, 3.44 xFIP, 3.58 SIERA and 1.11 WHIP would be a steal at his ADP. Lopez was also an asset in strikeouts, recording a 27.3% strikeout rate for Atlanta, with a 28.6 CSW%. Drafters shouldn’t allow him to slip out of the 13th round in 12-team mixed-league drafts. Selecting him as early as the 11th round is acceptable, albeit not squeezing every ounce of value out of him relative to his fantasy ADP.