The expression “must-have player” has its limits. Gamers shouldn’t reach multiple rounds ahead of average draft position (ADP) for the following pitchers. Reaching too far for a player saps the excess value they provide as undervalued options.
Instead, the highlighted pitchers should be considered priority targets at or slightly ahead of their fantasy baseball ADP.
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Fantasy Baseball Must-Draft Pitchers
Tanner Bibee (SP – CLE) | Pitcher 38/100.4 ADP
Tanner Bibee was the P27 in our value-based rankings (VBR) last year. His underlying data mostly validated his surface stats. Bibee overperformed as a rookie, twirling a 2.98 ERA versus a 3.69 ERA, 4.22 xFIP and 4.19 SIERA in 25 starts totaling 142 innings in 2023. Predictably, his ERA dipped to 3.47 in 31 starts spanning 173.2 innings in 2024, but his 3.78 xERA, 3.72 xFIP and 3.58 SIERA were more supportive of the validity of his 2024 performance.
Last season, Bibee also had a 1.12 WHIP, 6.2% walk rate, 26.3% strikeout rate, 27.4 CSW%, 99 stuff+, 103 location+ and 104 pitching+. In addition, after pitching 173.2 innings in the regular season, he added 15.2 innings in the playoffs.
The soon-to-be 26-year-old righty should be ready to approach 200 innings this year. He’s a high-end to middle-tier SP3 in 12-team mixed leagues being drafted as a high-end SP4. Once again, for a featured pitcher in this piece, the ECR (88th overall/P32) and I (75th overall/P28) are ahead of ADP on Bibee.
Felix Bautista (RP – BAL) | Pitcher 39/101.4 ADP
Relievers are a volatile bunch as it stands, so leaning into the volatility to chase upside makes sense. Felix Bautista missed the 2024 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery. He’s healthy now and was a fire-breathing monster in Baltimore’s bullpen before surgery.
Bautista put up the following eye-popping stats in 121 appearances and 126.2 innings since debuting in the bigs in 2022:
- 1.85 ERA
- 2.54 xFIP
- 2.26 SIERA
- 0.92 WHIP
- 10.0% Walk Rate
- 40.4% Strikeout Rate
- 32.6 CSW%
- 143 Stuff+
- 95 Location+
- 112 Pitching+
Bautista is a genuine threat to finish as the RP1 if he can recapture his pre-Tommy John surgery form. I’d be ecstatic to have Bautista as my top reliever as early as the end of the seventh round in 12-team mixed leagues, but pushing him closer to his ADP would be even sweeter.
Hunter Brown (SP – HOU) | Pitcher 42/112.2 ADP
Hunter Brown had a wretched beginning to his 2024 season. Through his first six starts, he had a 9.78 ERA, 4.35 xFIP, 4.72 SIERA and 2.22 WHIP in 23 innings.
Brown was outstanding after the calendar flipped to May. In his final 25 appearances (24 starts) in the regular season, Brown had a 2.51 ERA, 3.33 xFIP, 3.57 SIERA, 1.12 WHIP, 7.7% walk rate and a 26% strikeout rate in 147 innings. He also had a 27.3 CSW%, 103 stuff+, 102 location+ and 102 pitching+ in that period.
Brown’s 2.51 ERA from May 1 through the end of last season overstated how well he pitched. Nonetheless, if he pitched to his ERA estimators for the full 2025 season, he’d be a steal at his ADP. I have him ranked 91st overall (P35) and the ECR ranks him 103rd overall (P41).
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.