When drafting fantasy baseball teams, there is a time and a place to take risks. Most like to take some floor players early in drafts and then target ceiling players as the draft goes on.

Most high-risk/high-reward players are found later in drafts, leading to some potential value. In this article, I will discuss six players you can draft after pick 100 in average draft position (ADP) that provide plenty of rewards but also come with plenty of risks.

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Fantasy Baseball High-Risk/High-Reward Hitters

Royce Lewis (3B – MIN)

Royce Lewis has proven when healthy he is a fantasy monster. He has hit 33 home runs in 152 career games while hitting .268. He has a barrel rate of 11.2% or better over the previous two seasons with a hard-hit rate around 40%. Lewis has a career 128 wRC+ with a .497 slugging rate.

Health is key, as Lewis has had trouble staying healthy. The 152 games have come over three seasons. He played 82 games last year with multiple stints on the injured list (IL). Lewis didn’t seem fully healthy to end last season as he hit .207 with six home runs in the second half. Lewis brings a massive power ceiling, but last year’s second half showcased his deep floor.

Michael Toglia (1B, OF – COL)

Many are hyped about Michael Toglia’s upside entering the 2025 season. He hit 25 home runs with 10 steals over 116 games last year. Toglia mashes the ball with a 17.2% barrel rate and a 50% hard-hit rate. Toglia’s 42.4% flyball rate translated to a 23.1% home run-to-flyball rate (HR/FB).

The power is undeniable, but the plate discipline is a different story. Toglia had a .218 batting average with a 32.1% strikeout rate. He had a 26.2% O-Swing, a minuscule 33.3% O-Contact and an overall 66.7% contact rate. Toglia’s 14.9% SwStr did not help as well. Toglia could hit 30+ home runs, but his minuscule batting average could crush a fantasy team.

Tyler O’Neill (OF – BAL)

Tyler O’Neill hit 31 home runs last season over 113 games. His power was on full display with a 17.3% barrel rate and a 48.4% hard-hit rate. O’Neill has always showcased plenty of power, but he has only hit 30+ home runs twice, and those were the only two seasons he played over 100 games.

O’Neill has struggled to stay healthy his whole career. A healthy O’Neill provides a massive fantasy reward, but a few injuries and he’s an average fantasy outfielder, at best.

Matt Shaw (3B – CHC)

Matt Shaw has been hyped up all draft season after a dominating 2024 season in the Minors and a nice fall with Team USA. In 121 games between Double-A and Triple-A last season, Shaw hit .284 with 21 home runs and 31 stolen bases.

Shaw is currently sidelined with an oblique injury that has derailed his spring. A healthy Shaw could lead to a big rookie season, but a lingering oblique injury could push that rookie season back.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand (1B – CIN)

Christian Encarnacion-Strand is a massive power source late in fantasy drafts. He hit 32 home runs in the Minors in 2022 and then added 33 home runs between AAA and the Reds in 2023.

In 2024, Encarnacion-Strand was injured most of the season, only playing 29 games. He seems healthy and could bring one of the better fantasy seasons from a late-round pick. If an injury or a slow start occurs, Encarnacion-Strand could find himself back in AAA or the IL.

Christopher Morel (2B, 3B, OF – TB)

Christopher Morel had a great 2023 season, hitting .247 with 26 home runs over 107 games. There were high expectations for Morel entering 2024, but he did not reach them after his bat went ice cold once he was traded to the Rays.

Morel ended 2024 with a .196 batting average and 21 home runs, only one of those home runs coming with the Rays. He did not like hitting at the Trop, but he will not have to this season. Morel and the Rays will play their games at a Minor League stadium, which could result in a significant bounceback season for Morel.

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