It’s never too early to start talking about fantasy football busts. Finding out which players may heavily underperform expectations takes far more than just comparing their final ranking last year with their current ADP or consensus rank. That’s because injuries and changes to a player’s role or situation can have huge impacts on every player’s season-long output or final ranking. Injury-prone players or athletes who start the season hurt are always a massive risk, especially in the early rounds. Plus, changes like the loss of a reliable quarterback or the potential for a younger player to steal a veteran’s job are risks to account for when evaluating every skill player across the football landscape. Inconsistent, boom-or-bust athletes who produced the majority of their fantasy points in a few games are another trap that ensnares plenty of fantasy managers each year.
Our featured pundits know exactly what to look for when identifying potential busts. So to help you begin your research, they’ve each listed an RB and WR they think have the biggest odds of falling short of expectations. Read on below to see who you may want to think twice about selecting and why.
Early Bust Candidates: Running Backs
What RB in our consensus top 24 should fantasy managers fear the most as a bust candidate?
Alvin Kamara (RB – NO)
“There’s some noise that the New Orleans Saints could use an early pick on a running back, putting Alvin Kamara’s workload at risk. Kamara has been decreasing in efficiency for years; his 4.2 yards per carry in 2024 was the best mark he’d posted since 2020. His heavy usage has largely been a result of the fact that Kendre Miller can’t stay healthy and the Saints haven’t had a legit RB2 to complement him since Mark Ingram. There are a number of RBs in this draft class that could steal touches from Kamara. Conversely, new head coach Kellen Moore may opt to air it out more if they go QB early instead. There are several risk factors for Kamara heading into 2025 that make him a volatile option on draft day.”
– Pierre Camus (Fantasy Endgame)
Kyren Williams (RB – LAR)
“I know we’ve played this game for a few seasons: “Will Kyren Williams lose his bell-cow role and see his value cut in a committee?” Until this point, we have been wrong to assume that, but I worry this could be the year. The Rams have two third-round picks and another selection in the fourth round of the NFL Draft, where they could further address the running back position. I also haven’t mentioned Blake Corum to this point. This feels like the 2024 conversation I had around Rachaad White. At what point will the efficiency concerns catch up with Williams? Last year, among 46 qualifying backs (per PFF), Williams ranked 37th in yards after contact per attempt and 38th in elusive rating. That point in time could arrive in 2025.”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB – DET)
“The running back managers should fear the most as a bust is Jahmyr Gibbs. Gibbs will certainly be a great player once again for the Detroit Lions, but I have a really difficult time seeing how he’s in the same tier as Saquon Barkley and Bijan Robinson. David Montgomery will be healthy next season, and I see little reason they won’t continue to lean on Montgomery in the red zone. The fact that Gibbs was a top-3 RB just once and a top-10 RB in five of the 13 weeks Montgomery was fully healthy should be a red flag for fantasy managers projecting him in the top tier of running backs.”
– Trevor Land (FlurrySports)
Chuba Hubbard (RB – CAR)
“Chuba Hubbard should be atop the bust list for every fantasy manager heading into 2025. While 2024 was very impressive, Hubbard operated solo, with Miles Sanders being ineffective and Jonathan Brooks working his way back from a knee injury only to suffer another knee injury, ending his season. The Panthers went out and added former Cowboys running back Rico Dowdle this off-season, signaling they want to run with multiple backs in 2025. Hubbard’s 10 rushing scores also represent a statistical outlier, with his previous career high being 5. Is Hubbard a true double-digit touchdown threat, or is he closer to his career averages before 2024? Only time will tell, but he is someone that fantasy managers should fade until a clearer picture of who Hubbard really is becomes clear.”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)
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