Fantasy baseball is all about the long game. Players you drafted early who struggle are not suddenly untalented bums who should be dropped to the waiver wire at a moment’s notice.
There is a method to the madness of this game and baseball as a whole. Slumps happen, and when a talented player gets out of one, they typically do so in a glorious manner.
Fantasy Baseball 10 Burning Questions
We have to be patient unless something substantive, like injury or age concerns, becomes evident. Without either of the two, we are merely a month into a grueling, 162-game season, which can only be conquered through a diligent process.
This week’s ’10 Burning Questions’ are below. For any questions or concerns, contact me on Twitter/X (@RotoSurgeon).
Probably not, but the past 10 days have been an uncomfortable ride nonetheless. Jeff Hoffman’s egregious 6.05 ERA is a result of a well below-average left-on-base rate (57.5%) along with inflated metrics like batting average on balls in play (BABIP), which is .357, and HR/FB ratio (26.7%). Ironically, Hoffman’s peripheral metrics are better than ever with an elite 33.3% K-BB ratio and 1.64 SIERA. This season was the best start of his career until this rocky run in May. He is worth buying in leagues if anyone is selling because regression should swing in his favor soon.
Ideally, yes. Logan Henderson is too good to send back down, and this could be the case with Jose Quintana on the injured list (IL). Across two starts, Henderson has a 2.45 ERA, 35% K-BB ratio and 2.00 SIERA. The sample is small but not too skewed with matchups against the Athletics and Guardians, who grade out as average versus right-handed pitching.
There are valid concerns with any two-pitch hurler with lower velocity like Henderson, but his Minor League numbers are incredible, as are the early returns. He is worth snagging in all formats to stream for next week, at worst.
Will Jacob Wilson keep up his 20-home run pace? No. He has had some lucky home runs (all pulled) thus far. He will hit a power rough patch eventually, even with Sacramento’s park playing favorably. However, his batting average should remain very high as Wilson is a contact savant who can drive the ball at will across the diamond.
Wilson’s .354 batting average is backed by a .315 expected average, per Statcast. With that and a talented offensive lineup, Wilson’s average, runs and RBI should continue producing monster fantasy numbers.
4.) Who should we buy low?
Dylan Crews is underperforming his expected numbers by a wide margin…
- Batting Average: .189 | Expected Batting Average: .261
- Slugging Percentage: .318 | Expected Slugging Percentage: .456
Crews’ five home runs and 11 stolen bases thus far are solid, but his gaudy average and lack of counting stats are more noticeable to managers. The young, talented outfielder is making great contact, yet is not being rewarded. Luckily, baseball is a game where the pendulum swings both ways.
The Nationals are in no rush to limit his playing time or demote him amidst these struggles. Assuming Crews continues to play regularly going forward, there should be significant production soon.
5.) Who should we sell high?
Kodai Senga is arguably the luckiest pitcher in baseball through the first quarter of the season. His 1.22 ERA is the second-best among qualified starters in baseball despite a pedestrian 13% K-BB ratio. The reason for this low ERA is the one home run Senga has allowed through eight starts. This is more luck than skill on Senga’s part, given that he is not inducing an extreme rate of ground balls along with the matchups he has had to start the season.
Playing in a pitcher-friendly home park like Citi Field also helps Senga limit damage. However, if he cannot strike more batters out soon, he will experience heavy regression.
Jordan Westburg reportedly suffered a setback in his hamstring recovery and will be shelved on the IL much longer than expected. This comes after he embarked on a rehab assignment last week and had it shut down almost immediately.
Hamstring injuries lingering longer than expected are nothing new, but consistent reaggravations are a major problem. We have no clear timetable on Westburg, which makes him expendable if newer injuries arise.
Justin Verlander’s recent stretch is impressive for a 42-year-old starting pitcher. Since April 20th, Verlander has a 2.76 ERA through five starts with 23 strikeouts and a 1.09 WHIP. He is pitching like the 2023 version rather than the 2024 version of himself, which is a huge improvement.
Unfortunately, he is still not a very good starting pitcher, as his 13.7% K-BB ratio and 4.32 xFIP are mediocre. Verlander is a streamer at this point in his career and not worth keeping until the eventual wave of regression arrives.
Both prospects will have to claw for playing time, but they will be provided occasional opportunities throughout the next week or two for more. Dalton Rushing made his big league debut on Thursday and applied pressure immediately with multiple hits and runs scored. Unfortunately, he cannot play every day, given that Will Smith is a perennial all-star at his position. Unless Rushing learns to play the outfield, he will be stuck in a part-time role.
Jordan Lawlar is hitless through four at-bats but that is not a damning sample. He is too good to be sent down after demolishing the Minor Leagues without an extended cold stretch. It does not help him to play sporadically, but the big leagues are the big leagues for a reason. Six home runs and a .336 batting average through 38 games in Triple-A will likely keep him up until at least early June to prove something. Lawlar will play all over the middle infield and the corner outfield. Given how cold Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has been, Lawlar could supplant him in the lineup eventually.
9.) There’s no way Javier Baez is back… right?
Crazier things have happened, right? Javier Baez is playing great baseball through the first quarter of this season, and it is translating beyond the field and into fantasy box scores. Baez has five home runs, 20 runs, 27 RBI and a .309 batting average in 35 games while playing centerfield and the middle infield at a high level for a first-place Tigers team.
Sadly, Baez is outperforming his expected average and slugging percentage significantly. This ability was a fixture for the uber-talented Baez, but now, his sprint speed is down to just an average percentile, indicating a major drop from his early career. Without the extra step of his youth, it will be difficult for Baez to sustain anything close to this batting average while his power is derived fully from pulled balls.
In his prime, Baez drove home runs all across the field. This version is merely a shell of himself, benefiting from a hot streak. Pick him up if a middle infielder is needed, but do not bother in on-base percentage (OBP) formats or shallower leagues.
10.) Did the Triple-A stint fix Jake Burger?
I would call it a chance to breathe more than a fix. The Rangers are the first good MLB team Jake Burger has played for in his career. While there is no major pressure in Texas like New York or Los Angeles, expecting to perform can make it harder for some athletes to perform.
Burger crushed Triple-A through the six games he played and is back to crushing baseballs in the Majors. The demotion was odd at the time, given that Burger was not striking out more than usual and had a few home runs, but clearly, it helped. He has a four-game hitting streak since returning and just hit his fourth home run on Thursday. Burger should be rostered in all 12-team and deeper formats, given his power and quality average.
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