The first couple of months of the fantasy baseball season are an easy time to spot outliers and candidates for positive and negative regression. With so few games and plate appearances for each player, we will see wild swings away from normal production, and the tendency is to overreact.
Regression often comes at players quickly. When we see a player on an extreme hot or cold streak, things are likely to course correct. That’s what we will try to predict here, with some advice on how to handle these moments.
The first couple of months of the fantasy baseball season are an easy time to spot outliers and candidates for positive and negative regression. With so few games and plate appearances for each player, we will see wild swings away from normal production, and the tendency is to overreact.
Regression often comes at players quickly. When we see a player on an extreme hot or cold streak, things are likely to course correct. That’s what we will try to predict here, with some advice on how to handle these moments.
Fantasy Baseball Regression Candidates
This series highlights players due for positive or negative regression compared to their recent performance each week to assist fantasy managers in viewing each one properly. Digging underneath the surface stats, we will examine some hitting and pitching metrics to determine if a given player is overperforming or underperforming what should be expected.
Last week, this piece correctly predicted positive regression for Vinnie Pasquantino (.367 batting average over the past seven days) and negative regression for Zach Neto (.259 average, .370 slugging percentage over the last week). Regression, whether positive or negative, doesn’t always happen that fast, but the signs are often clear.
With the first seven weeks of the Major League Baseball season behind us and still 120+ games to go for almost every team, there will be a lot of positive and negative regression moving forward. Let’s take a look at some of the past week’s largest outliers and see what their futures might look like.
(Stats up to date through May 12th)
Players Due for Positive Regression
Juan Soto (OF – NYM)
Every time it looks like Juan Soto is about ready to break out of his batting slump to start 2025 (well, a slump compared to his standards), things go back to the depressing state that has defined his season to this point. The past week or two has been no different. Despite three home runs last week, Soto has a .217 batting average and an uncharacteristically low .321 on-base percentage (OBP).
Once again, the culprit seems to be his bad luck in the batting average on balls in play (BABIP) department. Keeping in mind that home runs do not count on balls in play, every other one of his batted ball events has resulted in a .143 BABIP, one of the 20 lowest rates in the league in that span. For his career, Soto has a .303 BABIP, but is at just .261 in 2025, the second-lowest mark of his career. The power is still coming through with eight home runs, but there is simply no way a player this talented can keep his batting average around .250 much longer.
Brice Turang (2B – MIL)
Do not fear, Brice Turang managers, this setback you’re seeing right now should be temporary. Turang is in the midst of the best season of his young career. His average, barrel rate, hard-hit rate and walk rate all border on elite territory. That’s what makes his last eight days and 22 plate appearances so baffling. He is hitting just .125/.333/.188 with zero home runs and just two RBI. While that’s a long, disappointing slump, the numbers behind it say a turnaround is coming soon.
First, Turang has a .154 BABIP in that span, which is one of the 20 lowest numbers in the Majors in that span. Yet, his walk rate is 23.8% (seventh-best in baseball) and his strikeout rate is just 14% (in the top 50 among all hitters). He is still seeing the ball well and making the same amount of contact, but the batted balls just aren’t finding the right places. That’s something that should change soon, considering his career-best barrel rate and exit velocity this year.
Players Due for Negative Regression
Sean Murphy (C – ATL)
The catcher position is always a grind to find a productive fantasy option if you didn’t grab one of the top two or three options in drafts. Of the 23 catchers with more than 100 plate appearances this season, only five have an average over .266, and only five have more than six home runs. Fourteen of the 23 have strikeout rates over 20%, and 20 of them have two or fewer steals. When someone like Sean Murphy starts hitting like crazy after his return from injury, it automatically makes us sit up and pay attention.
However, there might be some smoke and mirrors with Murphy’s recent hot streak, and fantasy managers should exercise caution.
Over the last seven days, Murphy’s average sits at .333, and he has an insane .455 on-base percentage. He played in six out of seven games and appears to be a key cog in the Atlanta Braves’ offensive machine. But that production is accompanied by a 31.8% strikeout rate and a .545 BABIP, almost 300 points above his career average. Murphy does have some of the highest potential for power among catchers, but buying this kind of batting average for the rest of the season is shortsighted.
Byron Buxton (OF, DH – MIN)
Give Byron Buxton credit for staying healthy over the first two months of the season. His 161 plate appearances in 38 games this season are already approaching half of his entire total from 2024 (388). He is also producing in both the power and speed columns with nine home runs and eight steals. His average is .264 and his slugging rate is .520. All seems to be going right in the world for fantasy managers who gambled on Buxton in spring drafts.
However, the last week or so has started to show how the offensive production might start to shift downward, even without injury concerns. Over the last seven days, Buxton is hitting a robust .286 with a .714 slugging rate, including two home runs. However, that production has a shaky veneer around it, namely in the form of a 40% strikeout rate. That level of swing and miss is going to eventually catch up with him.
Combine that with a fortunate .400 BABIP in that span, and Buxton looks primed for a slowdown in the days and weeks to come. We all hope he continues to avoid injury, but this level of offense might disappear.
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