Fantasy baseball is a marathon, not a sprint. Unlike other fantasy sports, the season is long and drags on as the weeks roll on. However, because it is such a grind, fantasy managers can lose focus on what’s important, allowing astute fantasy managers to take advantage.
We are very early in the season when people will make bad decisions in terms of trades because of small sample sizes. Hot streaks and cold streaks can scare your competition. Sometimes, underlying numbers aren’t showing up in the surface numbers quite yet. If someone in your league is ready to overreact, take advantage of their impatience. Here are some players I would try and buy low and sell high on at this point in the season. Use our fantasy baseball trade analyzer to help with values.
- Fantasy Baseball Research & Advice
- Fantasy Baseball Trade Analyzer
- Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Assistant
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- Rest-of-Season Projections
Fantasy Baseball Trade Advice
Buy Low
Brandon Lowe (1B, 2B, DH – TB)
Brandon Lowe has started the year hitting just .209/.248/.318 with four home runs. However, he has been unlucky in the batting average on balls in play (BABIP) department, and his underlying power numbers are either in line with previous seasons or better.
Lowe’s xBA is .282, so there should be some positive regression in the average. He is playing half of his games in a fantastic park in the Yankees’ spring training facility. This is an easy buy.
Yordan Alvarez is hitting .219/.316/.354 with three home runs and a stolen base in 117 plate appearances. I have never been a big Alvarez guy, but that is mostly due to health concerns. Despite the slow start, the underlying numbers are in line with last season.
Alvarez is a fantastic hitter with a tremendous amount of power, and he is healthy right now. He will turn it around and deliver amazing numbers as long as he doesn’t get hurt.
Chris Sale has struggled out of the gate, throwing 35.1 innings over seven starts with a 4.84 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. However, he has gotten back on track, throwing 16.1 innings over his last three starts with a 2.76 ERA.
This is despite a high BABIP, which should come back to his career norm. Similar to Alvarez, my only real concern with Sale is health. He appears healthy, though, and the Braves have been back on track as a team. He should be in line for a very nice rest of season.
Landen Roupp has struggled this season, throwing 30 innings over six starts with a 5.10 ERA and 1.63 WHIP. However, he has been unlucky with a 69% strand rate and a .378 BABIP. His xERA is 3.31, and he is striking out a ton of batters.
Walks will be an issue, but Roupp has been great at limiting hard contact and pitches in one of the best parks in baseball.
Sell High
Andy Pages has been great this season, hitting .292/.370/.521 with six home runs and three stolen bases in 108 plate appearances. His hot start has given him more time in the Dodgers’ outfield, but a lot of it is built on shaky skills.
Pages is making more contact, but a lot of it has been medium or soft contact, and he is just getting lucky in the BABIP and the HR/FB rates. There will be regression, and when that happens, he could lose a lot of playing time on a loaded Dodgers team.
This one pains me to write because I have been a massive fan of Cedric Mullins throughout his career. However, Mullins is crushing lefties right now, which is something he has never been able to do, and it is because his .318 BABIP against them this season is carrying all the weight.
Mullins has a career .228 BABIP versus lefties, so when this regresses, he will go back to being the guy we have seen the last few years, which has value but not as much as you should be able to trade him for right now.
Griffin Canning has thrown 31 innings over six starts with a 2.61 ERA and 31 strikeouts this season. However, he somehow has a 1.39 WHIP, and that is because he has been extremely lucky in the BABIP.
Despite walking way too many guys, Canning has survived the traffic on the base paths because of an 85% strand rate. Both of these things will regress, and he will be much closer to his xERA of 3.92.
Tyler Mahle has been fantastic this season, throwing 37.2 innings over seven starts with a 1.19 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. However, he has been lucky with BABIP and strand rate, and has yet to allow a home run.
Mahle will come crashing back to Earth at some point, and that doesn’t even add health history into the equation. Mahle has talent, but if you can get a top-35 starter back for him or an offensive equivalent, I would before things go sour.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | SoundCloud | TuneIn