Fantasy Football Busts: De’Von Achane, James Cook, James Conner (2025)

As you prepare for your fantasy football drafts, avoiding early-round mistakes is just as important as hitting on league-winning picks. That’s why we’ve gathered insights from our collection of Featured Pros experts to help you sidestep potential landmines at one of the most critical positions — running back. In this article, our experts identify their top early fantasy football busts at running back, players who may be overvalued based on current average draft position (ADP) and could fail to deliver the return you’re expecting. Before you lock in your first few picks, make sure you’re not drafting someone who could sink your season.

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Fantasy Football Busts to Avoid

What RB in our consensus top 24 should fantasy football managers fear the most as potential busts?

De’Von Achane (RB – MIA)

“Miami Dolphins RB De’Von Achane’s 2025 ADP places him as a high-end RB1, often drafted in the late first or early second round, which sets lofty expectations for consistent production. His 2024 season showed a stark contrast in performance, averaging 20.9 PPR points per game with Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback but only 6.9 without him, highlighting his dependency on a healthy quarterback. The Miami Dolphins’ offensive line, which had the sixth-lowest run-blocking grade in 2024, could continue to hinder his rushing efficiency, as evidenced by his drop from 7.8 yards per carry in 2023 to 4.6 in 2024. Competition from backups like Jaylen Wright and potentially Alexander Mattison or Ollie Gordon II may reduce his touches, especially in short-yardage or third-down situations where his smaller frame (5-foot-9, 188 pounds) has struggled, converting only nine out of 17 runs for first downs in 2024. These factors — quarterback dependency, a weak offensive line and backfield competition — combined with his injury history (six games missed in 2023), make Achane a risky pick at his current ADP due to potential inconsistency and limited workload.”
– Brandon Murchison (RotoBaller)

James Cook (RB – BUF)

“James Cook (RB14 in the rankings and 35th overall) finished last season as the RB8, averaging 15.7 half-PPR fantasy points per game. However, fantasy football players should be nervous about drafting him as a high-end RB2. He had four rushing touchdowns and five receiving scores over his first two years in the NFL. By comparison, Cook had 16 rushing touchdowns and two receiving scores last season, leading the league in rushing touchdowns. More importantly, he saw 30 fewer rushing attempts than the season before and had 43.1% of his fantasy production come from reaching the end zone. Cook’s a clear-cut touchdown regression candidate. Furthermore, the star running back and the Bills are in the middle of messy contract talks, which could lead to a holdout. I would rather draft Kenneth Walker III (RB16) and RJ Harvey (RB24) over Cook.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)

“Among the consensus top 24 running backs for 2025 half-PPR leagues, James Cook (RB14) stands out as a notable bust candidate. His performance relies heavily on volume in Buffalo’s high-powered offense, but his inconsistent workload and limited goal-line carries raise concerns. Cook’s bust potential is further amplified by his reliance on big plays, as his 4.4 yards per carry in 2024 suggests modest efficiency. The Bills’ backfield could also see increased competition from emerging talents like Ray Davis, who may steal valuable carries. If Buffalo’s offense shifts toward a more pass-heavy approach, Cook’s fantasy football value could take a significant hit.”
– Aaron St Denis (Fantasy Sports Advice Network)

“Stay away from James Cook. While he posted a strong 2024 on the surface, his fantasy value was propped up by 16 rushing touchdowns — his previous high was six. Maybe even more concerning is that Cook’s route participation dropped from 45.9% in 2023 to just 27.4% in 2024, as the Bills leaned on Ty Johnson on passing downs, limiting his PPR upside. He’s also holding out of organized team activities (OTAs), wanting a new contract worth $15 million per season. With James’ declining pass-game involvement, touchdown volatility and potential holdout, Cook is a risky pick at his current RB1/RB2 borderline ADP.”
– James Emrick-Wilson (Armchair Scouting)

“James Cook is coming off a massive 18 total touchdown season and has been vocal about wanting to be paid as a top back. There has been some speculation that if a contract isn’t agreed upon that he could miss regular-season time. Combine that with Josh Allen‘s featured goal-line role and a talented backup running back in Ray Davis pushing for playing time, fantasy football owners are likely to be disappointed in 2025, if Cook can’t match his touchdown production from a year ago.”
– Lee Wehry (FantasyPros)

James Conner (RB – ARI)

“James Conner has managed to produce despite the circumstances, retain his role despite competition on the team and defy father time. He’ll be 30 this season, so I expect some regression, and his 2024 passing numbers seem like an exception given the team’s status and something sustainable for this season. Trey Benson should have a more active role in his second year.”
– Mauricio Gutierrez (Estadio Fantasy)

David Montgomery (RB – DET)

“Bust is a strong word, but David Montgomery has obstacles in his path to justifying his expert consensus ranking (ECR) of RB20. The biggest of those obstacles is Jahmyr Gibbs, who’s proven to be one of the most talented backs in the league. Montgomery has averaged 16.8 and 15.8 touches a game in Gibbs’ first two seasons. Gibbs and Montgomery combined to average more than 33 touches a game in 2024. I’ll bet the under on 33 touches a game for them in 2025, and I’ll bet the under on 15.8 touches a game for Montgomery. We could also see a dip in Montgomery’s touchdown total. He’s scored 13 and 12 touchdowns the last two years, as the Lions ranked first and fifth in scoring during those two seasons. If the Lions scale back Montgomery’s usage to give Gibbs more snaps, or if the Detroit offense has hiccups after losing offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to the Bears, Montgomery’s touchdown total could slip. He’s a quality running back, but I see Montgomery as more of a low-end RB2 or high-end RB3 than a mid-range RB2.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)