We are now nearly two weeks removed from the NFL Draft, and dynasty rookie draft season is in full swing. Plenty of early leagues have already finished their rookie drafts, or at least the first few rounds. With that in mind, now is a great time to take a look at how these drafts are shaking out.
Today, I will take a look at the tiers that have formed in the first two rounds of Superflex dynasty rookie average draft position (ADP), plus give my takes on which players are undervalued and overvalued. Let’s get started.
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Dynasty Rookie Draft Simulator
- DBro’s Dynasty Rookie Draft Primers
Superflex Dynasty Rookie ADP Analysis
Tier 1: Ashton Jeanty
- 1.1 ADP: Ashton Jeanty (RB – LV)
This one is obvious. According to Dynasty Data Lab, which I will be using for all ADP data referenced in this article, Ashton Jeanty has been selected with the first overall pick in 96% of rookie drafts since the NFL Draft wrapped up.
Assuming traditional scoring settings (somewhere between 0-1 PPR, no huge TE-Premium or quarterback scoring boosts), 4% of drafters have made a mistake. Now that he has officially received incredible draft capital to go with a pristine prospect profile, Jeanty is a can’t-miss prospect, even in Superflex formats.
Tier 2: Early First-Rounders
- 2.6 ADP: Omarion Hampton (RB – LAC)
- 4.1 ADP: Cam Ward (QB – TEN)
- 4.6 ADP: Travis Hunter (WR/DB – JAX)
- 4.6 ADP: Tetairoa McMillan (WR – CAR)
You could argue Omarion Hampton deserves a tier of his own, as he has been selected as the second-overall pick in around 50% of rookie drafts. The Chargers’ first-round pick also only falls outside of the top three 16% of the time.
However, all four of these players have been selected with the second-overall pick in at least 8% of leagues. They are also all off the board by the 1.06 in over 70% of drafts. That makes them a clear tier.
I’m on board with this grouping.
Cam Ward is my 1.02, as the value ceiling and floor of quarterbacks in Superflex leagues is unmatched. But, especially in smaller or less trade-happy leagues, I wouldn’t think twice if someone selected any of these other players ahead of him. As a first-round running back, Hampton is essentially guaranteed to hit.
Travis Hunter’s two-way abilities make him the riskiest pick of this group (and he does have the lowest fantasy ADP floor, falling as far as 1.08 in 10% of drafts), but he is a truly generational talent. And Jalen McMillan is a great receiver prospect with elite draft capital and a very nice landing spot.
Honestly, all four of these rookies are so good that trading for the 1.05 and simply selecting whoever is available is a very good strategy for this year.
Tier 3: Ohio State Running Backs
- 5.7 ADP: TreVeyon Henderson (RB – NE)
- 7.1 ADP: Quinshon Judkins (RB- CLE)
Just based on pure ADP, it’s arguable that TreVeyon Henderson belongs in Tier 2. But, unlike the four names above him, he is never drafted as high as 1.02, and he is still available at the sixth overall pick in over half of drafts. That puts him more in line with former Buckeye teammate Quinshon Judkins, who is essentially always drafted between 1.06 and 1.09.
Once again, I think the wisdom of the crowds is correct here. Neither Henderson nor Judkins is a perfect prospect, but they both received early second-round draft capital and landed in promising situations. A more explosive player and a better receiver, Henderson has more upside and deserves his higher ADP, but I wouldn’t judge anyone too harshly for taking Judkins first, especially in Standard scoring formats.
Tier 4: Late First-Rounders
- 9.5 ADP: Tyler Warren (TE – IND)
- 10.6 ADP: Emeka Egbuka (WR – TB)
- 10.7 ADP: Kaleb Johnson (RB – PIT)
- 11.0 ADP: Colston Loveland (TE – CHI)
- 11.3 ADP: RJ Harvey (RB – DEN)
Looking at ADP, this tier is essentially inarguable. With just a 1.8 gap in raw ADP separating five players, it’s clear these rookies are all roughly equivalent in the public’s eye. However, there are still some differences in ADP distribution.
The two tight ends (Tyler Warren and Colston Loveland) slide multiple picks into the second round more often than the other members of this tier. Warren is the only player who is drafted as high as 1.06 with any consistency (10% of the time), while Emeka Egbuka and Kaleb Johnson are the most consistently gone by the end of the first round.
Here is the first place where my rankings disagree with these ADP-based tiers. I have both Packers receiver Matthew Golden and Giants QB Jaxson Dart on par with or ahead of multiple of these players, especially Johnson and the two tight ends. My reasoning is fairly simple: Draft capital.
Golden and Dart were both selected in the first round of the NFL Draft, which is an incredibly bullish sign for their future dynasty values. Meanwhile, Johnson fell nearly 30 picks past his consensus mock draft ADP to the middle of the third round, signaling that NFL teams weren’t as excited about him as the consensus.
Loveland and Warren both received first-round draft capital, but they received questionable landing spots, and tight end is just a weird position for fantasy. Dalton Kincaid and Kyle Pitts come to mind as recent examples of first-round busts at the position.
Tier 5: Early Second-Rounders
- 13.0 ADP: Matthew Golden (WR – GB)
- 13.1 ADP: Jaxson Dart (QB – NYG)
After a large five-player tier, we are straight back to a tiny two-prospect grouping of Jaxson Dart and Matthew Golden. With nearly a two-pick gap on either side and just a 0.1 gap in ADP between them, this duo has settled into a tier of their own.
However, as I just mentioned, I would argue they should be considered members of the tier above. You might get strange looks from any ADP-worshipping leaguemates, but don’t hesitate to pick Golden or Dart in the late first round and above some of the members of Tier 4 if your situation or league settings call for it.
Tier 6: Mid Second-Rounders
- 15.0 ADP: Luther Burden (WR – CHI)
- 16.7 ADP: Cam Skattebo (RB – NYG)
- 17.3 ADP: Jayden Higgins (WR – HOU)
- 17.4 ADP: Tre Harris (WR – LAC)
Burden is the clear leader of this tier, as he is the only member who sneaks into the first round with any kind of frequency (20% of the time). But he still is most at home in this quartet, along with two other wide receivers taken in the second round of the NFL Draft and a fourth-round running back in Cam Skattebo.
All four of these players are available over half of the time at the 2.03 but off the board in the majority of leagues by 2.06. Frankly, that ADP simply makes sense. I wouldn’t recommend taking any of these players ahead of the 14 players in the first five tiers, but they should be picks 15-18 in just about every draft.
Tier 7: Late Second-Rounders
- 21.0 ADP: Jack Bech (WR – LV)
- 21.7 ADP: Jalen Milroe (QB – SEA)
- 22.6 ADP: Bhayshul Tuten (RB – JAX)
- 23.1 ADP: Mason Taylor (TE – NYJ)
- 24.0 ADP: Shedeur Sanders (QB – CLE)
Here we have another fairly clear ADP-based tier. Unsurprisingly, the big outlier is Shedeur Sanders, one of the most controversial prospects in this year’s draft class. Even after falling to the 144th overall pick in the NFL Draft, the Hall of Famer’s son is drafted in the first round 7% of the time — no other player in this tier is above even 2% (fellow quarterback Jalen Milroe).
However, Sanders also falls well into the third round, if not later, with more frequency than the other players in this tier, driving his raw ADP down. Otherwise, these five players are fairly consistently selected in the back half of the second round of Superflex rookie drafts.
This is the tier I’m the most skeptical of, which isn’t too surprising given we are later in the draft with more questionable prospect profiles to pick through. I am a firm Sanders doubter, and I also have Mason Taylor clearly below every other name on this list.
Instead, I would argue that Jaylin Noel, a third-round receiver selected by the Texans, is worth considering in the late second. I also wouldn’t look disapprovingly on any competing teams throwing a dart at running back Jaydon Blue, who wasn’t a great prospect but could step into a solid workload right away in the Cowboys’ backfield.
And my truth serum take is that Tyler Shough is also a valid pick in this tier, if only because he looks set to start all 17 games under center for the Saints this season.
Final Thoughts
The first two rounds of Superflex dynasty rookie drafts have settled into seven fairly efficient tiers of ADP. There are a few spots where the crowd’s wisdom feels a little off to me, and you might have your favorite hot takes.
Don’t be afraid to get your guy, as these rankings will all look laughable very quickly in hindsight. If you find yourself tempted to reach between tiers, it might be worth looking into a trade back; you might be able to add value and still get your guy.
If you are more flexible in your takes, I always recommend attempting to trade to the end of a tier. In this year’s class, particular hot spots would be 1.05, 1.07, 2.02 and 2.05. Happy drafting.
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Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasyPros.com. Find him on Twitter and Bluesky @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.
