Taking a quick glimpse through ADP (which will only become more robust with industry mocks, high-stakes leagues and the Scott Fish Bowl quickly approaching), several names stood out immediately as fantasy football draft values. Should these players remain in their current draft slots/tiers, I’d expect a robust return on investment for savvy managers.
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Fantasy Football Undervalued Players to Target
Here are three undervalued fantasy football draft picks that caught my eye.
Drake Maye (QB – NE)
Drake Maye is currently being drafted as the QB17 off the board, following a strong rookie season in which he finished as the QB23 overall, despite participating in just 13 games for the Patriots and making 10 starts.
Under constant duress due to a sieve offensive line that had him constantly scrambling for his life, Maye was unable to find much of a rhythm in 2024. The pressure forced him to keep his eyes from ever looking downfield or allowing plays to develop, resulting in a meager 6.7 yards per attempt (YPA) and just 15 touchdown passes.
To address this glaring need, New England used the fourth overall pick in the draft to bring in tackle Will Campbell from LSU, locking down Maye’s blind side. Campbell will represent the cornerstone in a completely revamped line, which will feature free agent additions Morgan Moses, Wes Schweitzer and Garrett Bradbury. A much-improved front will allow Maye to sit back in the pocket and read plays, rather than being forced to scramble if his first option isn’t covered.
The Patriots also improved their running game by adding home-run threat TreVeyon Henderson in the second round. Then they provided Maye with another weapon in wideout Kyle Williams from Washington State. Williams will be a nice complement to free agent signings Stefon Diggs and Mack Hollins, in addition to 2024 breakout star DeMario Douglas.
A revamped offensive line, coupled with significant additions at running back and wide receiver, should result in Maye taking a massive step forward in his development. I expect him to vie for a top-12 finish, and his fantasy football ADP is sure to rise as we turn the calendar.
James Conner (RB – ARI)
Just so I understand this correctly — James Conner finished last year as the overall RB11, started more than 13 games for the first time since 2021, is coming off consecutive 1,000-yard seasons, caught a career-high 47 passes last year… and he’s going off the board as the RB20? Sure, one can make the “once bitten, twice shy” argument about Conner’s injury history, or think that at age 30, he will magically turn back into a pumpkin at midnight, but I’m here to state that the hate has gone too far.
Arizona is confident Conner can continue as their workhorse ahead of Trey Benson, as they made little effort to integrate the Florida State rookie throughout 2024. To borrow a few statistics from my colleague Derek Brown, Conner was second in missed tackles forced per attempt, 11th in yards after contact attempt and sixth in explosive run rate. I don’t envision a cataclysmic collapse is imminent.
Conner currently represents the best value at the running back position with early ADP data, and will be firmly tethered to the “not sexy name value but amazing return” territory. Each of the last two times Conner started more than 15 games he has finished as an RB1.
Kaleb Johnson (RB – PIT)
It is extremely rare that a rookie ever finds his way into undervalued territory, yet here we are. A 6-foot-1, 224-pound bruiser from the University of Iowa, Kaleb Johnson finished with eye-popping totals in his final season as a Hawkeye, rushing for 1,537 yards and 21 touchdowns. For such a large back, Johnson has an uncanny ability to recognize and read zone defenses, constantly falling forward for positive yards and running through defenders.
It is easy to make comparisons between Johnson and his predecessor Najee Harris given their size, but I’d argue Johnson is a more decisive option who possesses significantly additional burst through holes, and elusiveness in open space.
The addition of Johnson caps any upside Jaylen Warren once had before the draft, and we’d expect the rookie to immediately slide into the early-down, short-yardage and goal-line work Harris once had. With offensive coordinator Arthur Smith operating a very run-heavy playbook, Johnson should immediately inherit a ton of work, and since he doesn’t carry the same name recognition as Ashton Jeanty or Omarion Hampton, he can be acquired at a serious discount.
Don’t let Johnson’s 40-yard dash hiccup at the NFL Scouting Combine scare you off; this is one seriously talented kid.
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