3 Overvalued Fantasy Football Draft Picks to Avoid (2025)

Below are a few examples of players with an average draft position (ADP) higher than it should be. Here are overvalued fantasy football draft picks to avoid.

Overvalued Fantasy Football Draft Picks to Avoid

Being this far out from the fantasy football season, there are going to be players who are flying under the radar and could be league winners. But it’s a two-way street, and there will also be overhyped players. Here are three fantasy football draft picks that are currently overvalued based on ADP.

Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC) | ADP: QB6

While no one would argue that Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is a perennial MVP candidate, his fantasy value has taken a hit in recent years. After finishing as a top-five fantasy quarterback in four out of five seasons between 2018 and 2022, he was only eighth in fantasy scoring in 2023 before dipping to 12th last season. Despite being healthy the entire time, Mahomes has failed to top 30 passing touchdowns in three years, let alone 40 as he did in 2022.

What’s causing the statistical decline? Mahomes has yet to reach his 30s, so physically, he should be in his prime. Is the rest of the league figuring him out? That’s possible. But couple that with the talent, or lack thereof, the Chiefs have surrounded him with in the last few seasons, and it’s not unreasonable to assume it’s just getting harder for Mahomes to do what he does. When All-Pro receiver Tyreek Hill first left the Chiefs after the 2021 season, tight end Travis Kelce initially carried the load, totaling over 1,300 receiving yards in 2022. But he’s seen a steady decline in production over the last two seasons as well. Kelce himself is 35 and could retire at any point. Outside of Kelce, the Chiefs have misfired.

There was 2023 second-round pick Rashee Rice, who, while productive on the field, has had issues off the field that put his availability into question. The same could be said of 2024 first-round pick Xavier Worthy, who also had a promising start to his career before his own legal issues.

With the recent influx of young quarterbacks to the pool of options, making Mahomes the sixth quarterback off the board seems high. Any Mahomes manager is hoping Kelce’s decline stops and that the two receivers drafted to carry Mahomes in the future can stay on the field, both of which are asking a lot. Let someone else draft Mahomes at his high fantasy football ADP this year and let them be disappointed.

Chuba Hubbard (RB – CAR) | ADP: RB19

Chuba Hubbard has had one of the more surprising careers for recent running backs. After being drafted in the fourth round of the 2021 NFL Draft, Hubbard lingered in the background of the Carolina backfield. He saw a healthy amount of snaps in his rookie season, leading the team with 172 rush attempts, before taking a backseat to D’Onta Foreman in his sophomore season, all while filling in for the injured/traded Christian McCaffrey. He then took lead duties in 2023, during the disastrous rookie season of Bryce Young, but held on to that role in 2024 when the team improved, finishing as a top-15 fantasy running back.

Why is an RB19 ADP overvalued? For starters, Hubbard is coming off an injury that ended his 2024 season prematurely, and a lower-body injury at that. It wouldn’t have been a red flag except for the Panthers’ reaction to it. They signed one of the better running backs on the free agent market in Rico Dowdle and drafted Trevor Etienne in the fourth round. Suddenly, the Panthers have some decent depth behind Hubbard. It would make sense to distribute the carries so that Hubbard, who turns 26 this month and is coming off a lower-body injury, can carry less of a load. This makes an ADP of RB19 a risk.

Sam LaPorta (TE – DET) | ADP: TE4

For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. The departure of former Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson will affect Detroit’s offense, especially tight end Sam LaPorta. The now-third-year second-round pick set rookie tight end records just two seasons ago, totaling 889 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns on his way to being the top-scoring tight end in all of fantasy. Expectations were understandably high last year, so to see his numbers decline was a disappointment. He totaled just 726 yards and seven touchdowns to finish as fantasy’s sixth-highest-scoring tight end.

It’s a bit of a surprise to see him as the fourth tight end off the board when A) his numbers have declined and B) the play-calling wizard who led the offense isn’t there anymore. It’s not like new offensive coordinator John Morton is providing a lot of hope, as his only experience was as the offensive coordinator for the Jets eight years ago, where the team finished in the lowest quarter of the league in both yards and points.

This year may be a course correction for the Lions’ offense, and that includes LaPort, who profiles more as a lower-end TE1 on fantasy teams instead of a top-four option.