Recency bias plays a pivotal role in shaping how players are valued in fantasy football. Oftentimes, a player’s performance in the previous season will disproportionately influence a manager’s judgement. While past successes can be a useful indicator of future production, each NFL season comes with its own unique set of circumstances.
Depth charts, offensive schemes and injury statuses are constantly fluctuating. For this reason, managers must be willing to adapt their evaluations and, when necessary, de-prioritize last year’s results.
Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill was viewed as a surefire first-round draft selection during the 2024 offseason. The perennial Pro-Bowler was coming off an impressive 1,799 receiving yards and was set to retain a featured role in Miami’s offense. However, Hill drastically underperformed, finishing as the WR21 in half-PPR formats.
Those who overlooked the concerning trends regarding the Dolphins’ offensive ecosystem and the receivers’ persisting hand injury were ultimately disappointed with their draft day investment.
In what follows, I highlight three players unlikely to replicate their 2024 output in the upcoming fantasy football season.
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Fantasy Football Busts
Kyren Williams (RB – LAR)
To Kyren Williams’ credit, he’s been a stellar asset for two consecutive years. He’s overcome underwhelming draft capital and consistent backfield competition to emerge as a fantasy football gem. That said, managers should not bank on Williams repeating his RB7 finish in 2024.
According to Pro Football Focus’ (PFF) advanced metrics, Williams’ efficiency declined significantly in 2024. Among backs with a minimum of 100 carries, he ranked 34th in missed tackles forced per attempt, 38th in elusive rating and 25th in rushing grade. These tallies are especially concerning given Sean McVay’s unpredictability with his running back touch distributions. McVay may very well grow impatient with the veteran’s inefficiencies and allocate more touches to the younger, more explosive backs on this roster.
Williams’ competition for touches has never been tougher. For one, the team invested fourth-round draft capital in Auburn running back Jarquez Hunter. Per PFF, Hunter averaged a staggering 4.10 yards after contact per carry and earned an elusive rating of 142.5 during his final collegiate season.
While he struggled to make an impact during his rookie year, sophomore Blake Corum is another strong candidate for touches in this backfield. It’s important to recall that Corum is a mere two years removed from a stellar 2023 season during which he compiled 22 touchdowns in 12 games with the Michigan Wolverines.
The final red flag in Williams’ profile is the potential for steep touchdown regression. Much of Williams’ fantasy output has come from end zone usage, totaling 26 rushing touchdowns across the two previous seasons. This has coincided with an uncharacteristic decrease in quarterback Matthew Stafford‘s touchdown production.
Stafford, who remains one of the league’s best gunslingers, has failed to surpass 24 passing touchdowns since 2023. If the touchdown pendulum swings toward the passing game, those who invested in Williams will be left disappointed.
Alvin Kamara (RB – NO)
It’s been a truly outstanding career for Alvin Kamara. The veteran back has eclipsed 1,000 scrimmage yards in eight consecutive seasons. Nevertheless, Kamara’s impressive run as a reliable fantasy asset will come to a disappointing end in 2025. New Orleans’ ineffective offensive scheme and Kamara’s continued struggles as a runner will prove to be too much to overcome.
Kamara’s nose for the end zone has long been a reliable source of fantasy production. Unfortunately, touchdown opportunities will be hard to come by in this iteration of the Saints’ offense. PFF graded the offensive line as the worst pass-blocking unit in the NFL in 2024. The team will also be turning to rookie Tyler Shough as its signal-caller. Given that rookie quarterbacks have historically struggled to lead fantasy-friendly offenses, it’s safe to assume the Saints will be among the league’s worst offensive teams in 2025.
Kamara’s efficiency metrics have decreased steadily over the past couple of years. Among running backs with a minimum of 100 carries, he ranked 37th in elusive rating, 28th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 35th in yards after contact per attempt, per PFF. The new coaching regime in New Orleans has no ties to Kamara and may elect to increase the role of the ancillary pieces in this backfield.
Kendre Miller, Cam Akers and rookie Devin Neal all have a realistic opportunity to earn touches in this system. Miller, who has averaged a noteworthy 3.18 yards after contact per carry across his career, per PFF, can potentially thrive with an increased role. On the other hand, Akers has proven to be an effective change-of-pace back across recent stints in Houston and Minnesota. Neal’s statistical profile indicates his skillset could translate well to the NFL level. The former Kansas Jayhawk compiled 2,400 rushing yards and 31 rushing touchdowns in the final two years of his college career.
Backs of Kamara’s age are rarely wise investments to make in fantasy football. With the added issues regarding the Saints’ offense and the likely decrease in volume, managers should expect a sharp decline from Kamara’s 2024 finish as the overall RB10.
James Cook (RB – BUF)
James Cook has consistently been efficient on a per-touch basis. His career average of 4.9 yards per carry sheds light on the explosiveness he provides for the Buffalo Bills. As the pseudo-No. 1 RB on this high-powered offense, Cook’s fantasy football outlook may look very appealing on the surface. However, there are a number of underlying concerns regarding Cook’s RB8 campaign in 2024.
For one, the Bills’ rushing attempts are quite evenly distributed. Cook, Josh Allen and Ray Davis all earned an excess of 100 carries in 2024. Per PFF, Davis averaged a formidable 0.257 missed tackles forced per attempt and may thus earn an even greater workload in 2025. Cook simply cannot earn the rushing volume required to consistently be among the likes of Saquon Barkley, Bijan Robinson and Derrick Henry at the top of fantasy football rankings.
To make matters worse, the Bills have been reluctant to utilize Cook’s prowess as a pass-catcher. Veteran running back Ty Johnson has inherited a large portion of the receiving role in this backfield, accruing 25 targets and 284 receiving yards in 2024. Once more, Cook’s limited receiving production will continue to cap his fantasy football output.
Cook’s memorable 2024 campaign was largely fueled by anomalous touchdown production. The Georgia alum scored 16 touchdowns after totaling four across the previous two seasons. Given Joe Brady’s propensity to use Josh Allen’s athleticism around the goal line, this level of touchdown production is unlikely to be sustained. Allen has recorded at least 18 carries inside the 10-yard line in each of the past two seasons.
Cook’s contract situation will also be worth monitoring. His desire to cash in on his breakout 2024 season has been well-documented, and he’s yet to reach an agreement with the franchise. If contract disputes linger deeper into the offseason, it may lead to further complications for the Bills and fantasy managers alike. All signs point towards a disappointing season for Cook.
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