First-round picks in fantasy football have a certain cache, a certain feel about them that they’re infallible. Just like picks in any other round, they have some risk to them as well. The risk may be minimal, but if that risk is compounded by other factors, then they can jump into “bust” territory.
Today, we’ll be outlining a couple of players being drafted at or very close to the first-round draft range that are bust candidates for 2025 fantasy football.
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First-Round Fantasy Football Players Most Likely to Bust
Saquon Barkley (RB – PHI) | ADP: RB3
Saquon Barkley was a huge fantasy success last season, averaging 22.2 fantasy points per game. There’s no denying the fact that most fantasy teams that drafted him had a ton of success and ended up winning their fantasy leagues. So why is he in an article about the most likely first-round busts? Am I just a curmudgeon?
Well, we’re not playing 2024 fantasy football in 2025. What has been will not always be. The stars aligned for Barkley as a pick at the end of the first round and sometimes into the second round. Putting up a 2,005-yard season with 15 total touchdowns behind the most run-heavy offensive attack in the NFL, Barkley thrived in one of the best situations for any running back in the NFL.
What’s changed? Well, now you have to draft him with a premium pick between the 1.01 and 1.03. That changes things versus the chance of being able to make a pick and then snagging Barkley at the 1.12 or 2.01 last season. That said, I’m not afraid of being completely out on Barkley due to the risk of variance when it comes to how offenses operate from one season to the next.
What about a staggering number of carries? Barkley checked that box off, too, and as the old guard of fantasy loves to say, “curse of 370.”
Saquon Barkley (PHI) had 436 carries last season…
DeMarco Murray ‘14 436 RB2, next year RB15
Eddie George ‘00 431 RB3 ➡️ RB21
Shaun Alexander ’05 430 RB1 ➡️ RB30
Larry Johnson ’06 429 RB3 ➡️RB40
Jamal Lewis ‘00 412 RB15 ➡️ DNP*
Corey Dillon ’04 410 RB7 ➡️ RB18
contd….— Joe Pisapia (@JoePisapia17) June 11, 2025
The Eagles had just 448 pass attempts total as a team, the third-lowest amount by any team since 2021 when the NFL went to a 17-game schedule. That’s an absurdly low total, folks. Variance likely adds some passing attempts to the Eagles’ ledger for 2025.
Even adding 30-to-40 passing attempts — which doesn’t seem like much — still takes some fantasy scoring off the top for Barkley. Not to mention, touchdown variance by his quarterback, Jalen Hurts, and more touchdowns in the passing game would still impact Barkley big time.,
As for Barkley, he’s going to crush on the ground, but through the air, Barkley was just pedestrian with not just his utilization, but his opportunity as well. With the Giants, Barkley was often used as a safety-valve running back, catching passes. Besides the 2020 season which Barkley was injured after two games, he earned his lowest total targets (39) in a healthy season and by far his lowest targets per game (2.4) last season.
If Barkley is going to be almost solely dependent on rushing (ala Nick Chubb or Jonathan Taylor), that’s going to severely cut into his upside if he sees any sort of tick down in his rushing attempts, touchdowns or both.
The reason why Barkley crushed in fantasy football is not because he did what he did, but the fact that he put up such an amazing season as a non-premium first-round pick and sometimes a second-round pick. Now, you have to pay the premium for Barkley. While he could still put up a huge season, it won’t crush people in the way he did last season.
Christian McCaffrey (RB – SF) | ADP: RB6
When Christian McCaffrey wraps up his NFL career, he’ll be fondly remembered as one of the best NFL running backs of his era and one of the most productive fantasy backs ever. Remembering McCaffrey for what he was is completely different than what he currently is, and we need to take that into account when forecasting what his 2025 could look like.
In a “what have you done for me lately” sense, McCaffrey doesn’t exactly pop off the page with tendinitis in both of his Achilles’ tendons and a PCL sprain in his knee. It’s not what you want to hear. Reports have come out about him looking healthy, but there’s always good news during the offseason. Tell me one time where a team, coach or agent said a player looked bad in workouts.
McCaffrey will be 29 once Week 1 rolls around. Since 2020, he has had at least one leg or thigh injury that has caused him to miss at least one game in every season but one (2022). With a lot of tread on his tires from 1,871 career touches in his eight seasons, those touches could be taking their toll on the talented runner.
It wasn’t long ago in 2023 when McCaffrey put up over 2,000 total yards en route to an RB1 finish, but running backs rarely age gracefully and gradually. 2023 was a long time ago in running back years. While he has put up some of the best seasons in fantasy history, that illustrates a ceiling he once had, not necessarily that he does have at this current point in time. And you have to draft him in the first round to find out if he still has that ceiling in his age-29 season.
He’s moved into the first round from the second round since the NFL Draft, now that we’ve gotten some good reports on his overall health. He feels like a trap pick, so I’ll happily let somebody else select him for the name value.
What once was is not what it will always be, so while McCaffrey has had an awesome run as a fantasy running back, I would want a much better price to take the chance on him now that he has a first-round pick average draft position (ADP). That’s likely not happening, save for an injury. Then, I would be out on him fully. I still might be fully out on McCaffrey.
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Kevin Tompkins is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Kevin, check out his profile and follow him on Bluesky @ktompkinsii.bsky.social.
