As we approach the middle of August, we’re merely weeks away from fantasy football redraft leagues beginning. Before we know it, opening night of the NFL season will be here. With that, it’s time to examine some receivers who are overpriced.
Admittedly, this was somewhat difficult, but I did find three receivers I’m lower on based on their average draft position (ADP). Let’s examine them below.
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Fantasy Football Wide Receivers to Avoid
Tetairoa McMillan (WR – CAR)
Last season as a rookie, Tetairoa McMillan recorded a 25.4% target share, catching 70 passes on 122 targets for 1,014 yards and seven touchdowns. He finished as the WR15 in PPR leagues. Now, he’s being drafted as the WR17. While his ADP is lower than his finish last season, a few things lead me to believe he’s perhaps closer to WR20.
According to Sharp Football Analysis, the Panthers have the third-most difficult schedule next season, facing the AFC North and other tough opponents such as the Chicago Bears, Philadelphia Eagles, Green Bay Packers, Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks.
The Seahawks game is in Week 17, which would be the fantasy championship.
Also, the team did give Jalen Coker a notable extension, so, pending health, I expect him to have a higher target share. It was just 9% last season, but he only played in 11 games.
McMillan is a great player, but I’m still wishy-washy on Bryce Young as a quarterback who can allow a receiver to finish high in rankings, especially with a tough schedule.
Nico Collins (WR – HOU)
Playing in 15 games last season, Nico Collins had a 21.7% target share, catching 71 passes on 120 targets for 1,117 yards and six touchdowns. This season, Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel have another season under their belt. The Texans’ running game should be better with David Montgomery. And Tank Dell is on his way back. The Texans have the 11th-most difficult schedule, per Sharp Football Analysis, and there are still questions surrounding quarterback C.J. Stroud.
Stroud has yet to complete more than 64.5% of his passes in a season. He’s also never topped 23 touchdowns. Last season, his yards per game average was the lowest of his career.
Collins will be fine, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see him fall out of the top 10 receivers in fantasy.
Courtland Sutton (WR – DEN)
Further down the ADP list, Courtland Sutton is going as the WR33. Still, even in that spot, I don’t feel great about him. Last season, across 17 games, Sutton had a 21.2% target share, catching 74 passes on 124 targets for 1,017 yards and seven touchdowns. This season, though, there are so many other variables to consider.
First, the team traded a first-round draft choice for Jaylen Waddle from the Miami Dolphins. This is an immediate hit to Sutton’s WR1 status with the team. Second, Bo Nix suffered an ankle injury in the playoffs, so his health could have a trickle-down effect on the receivers. And third, the team drafted Jonah Coleman, adding to a three-headed backfield of J.K. Dobbins, RJ Harvey and Coleman. That trio could see more action with Nix coming off the injury, including Harvey catching passes and Coleman being used more in the red zone.
Also, the reports out of camp aren’t exactly thrilling. According to The Athletic, Sutton’s reps are being managed, but the Broncos are saying that’s part of the protocol for veteran receivers. Also, Sutton has said he’s willing to sacrifice his stats “if that’s what the offense needs.” Of course, a noble thing to say for real football, but alarming for fantasy.
Sutton likely finishes closer to WR40 than WR30.
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