NBA DFS Picks & Lineup Advice: Pacers vs. Thunder (Game 5)

Welcome to the Monday NBA DFS slate. It’s the NBA Finals. At most, we have three games left, so I want to say thank you for following along all year. It’s been an up-and-down season, but I hope you finished in the green, like yours truly.

If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you have to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. That’s not as applicable in the playoffs, but it’s a good strategy. In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top DFS plays for this slate.

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer

NBA DFS Captain/MVP Plays

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (G – OKC)

DraftKings: $21,000
FanDuel: $25,500

Listen, I’m not the most creative person in the world; I don’t pretend to be. If you’re trying to win some large-field GPPs, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in your Captain/MVP spot might limit you a bit. He’s going to be the most rostered option, and with the Thunder returning home after a much-needed win, he’s only going to project even better.

Still, the opportunity cost of leaving Gilgeous-Alexander out of your Captain/MVP slot feels too high not to prioritize him. In Game 2, he popped off for 61 points. His last two outings weren’t all too impressive from a DFS standpoint, so he’s due for another big game. He costs a lot and limits your decisions elsewhere, but Gilgeous-Alexander is still one of my favorite plays in Game 5.

Chet Holmgren (PF, C – OKC)

DraftKings: $13,200
FanDuel: $13,500

If you know me, you know my love for the Gonzaga product. To open the series, it was a little concerning with 15 and 25 DraftKings point efforts, but the last two games have paid off for my investment in the Thunder big man.

Chet Holmgren is playing additional minutes, and I project him around for 36 minutes again tonight. What’s promising is how much he’s added on the glass and outside of scoring. I expect him to throw in a steal and a block or two along with a double-double tonight to get to his 40 points threshold.

It’s a showdown slate, so Holmgren will garner some rostership, but he still registers as a leverage option for the bigger GPPs.

NBA DFS Core Plays

Aaron Nesmith (SG, SF – IND)

DraftKings: $5,200
FanDuel: $3,600

The way to beat Oklahoma City this year is from the perimeter. The Thunder ranked first in opponent field goal percentage, with the lowest allowed rate in the league and 19th from three. That’s a big jump. Opponents also attempted the third-most perimeter shots after the All-Star break against the Thunder, so the opportunity should be there for the Pacers.

With the series returning to Oklahoma City, Indiana might have to lean on their perimeter game a bit more. Aaron Nesmith attempted seven and eight threes in the first two games of the series and should hopefully get to double-digit attempts tonight. Nesmith is at his lowest cost of the series, so this is a perfect time to invest, especially if his rostership is still low.

Luguentz Dort (SG, SF – OKC)

DraftKings: $4,600
FanDuel: $2,600

For the high-risk, high-reward value option of the day, we have Luguentz Dort. What stands out positively for Dort is the minutes he plays every game. He has averaged around 34 minutes a night in his last five games, and the average is drawn down by the 26 minutes he played in Game 2 when he got into foul trouble.

Otherwise, I can see him on the court for 36-38 minutes. The concerning part is his usage rate. It’s been in the single digits each of the last three games, so it’s due for positive regression, but it’s clear he’s not the Thunder’s go-to option.

Dort averaged over a 13% usage rate this year. With the minutes he’s on the court, we’ve seen him get to 36 fantasy points to open the series. That’s the goal for Dort in Game 5.

Pascal Siakam (PF – IND)

DraftKings: $10,000
FanDuel: $11,600

My contrarian play tonight is Pascal Siakam. He’s also worth considering for the Captain/MVP spot. He’s coming off a 50 fantasy point outing and seems to have figured out the Thunder’s frontcourt.

If you want a cheaper, lesser-owned option, consider Myles Turner. But keep in mind Oklahoma City’s interior defense. With their four-game experience, it seems Indiana isn’t backing down at all and has done an excellent job offensively.

Expect that to continue, and trust Siakam to put up points. He is capable of scoring at all three levels and has scored to 39+ fantasy points in three of the four games this series. I’ve faded him pretty heavily to this point, but am finally buying in, projecting him for right around that 40-point threshold.

Ben Sheppard (G – IND)

DraftKings: $1,200
FanDuel: $1,000

My punt play of the day, and a common one it seems, is Ben Sheppard. He played 18 minutes in Game 3, and I project him for around 15 tonight. Sheppard is coming off an outing of only three fantasy points, so his price has tanked, making him a clear investment.

Getting to double-digit fantasy points, as he did the game before, is the goal. He’s averaged 10 DraftKings points in his six games against the Thunder this year, so that goal is attainable. Anything more than that is icing on top of the cake.