Get ready for your fantasy football draft with our fantasy football draft day cheat sheets. Our analysts dive into their favorite fantasy football draft targets and sleepers, as well as overvalued players and busts they’re avoiding in drafts. Let us help you prepare for your fantasy football draft with our cheat sheets! And use our Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet Creator to create your cheat sheet using our expert rankings, notes, and player tags. Here are a few fantasy football busts our experts avoid.
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Fantasy Football Draft Cheat Sheet: Busts to Avoid
Quarterback Busts
Patrick Mahomes hasn’t been a top-six fantasy quarterback in fantasy points per game since 2022. Over the past two seasons, his passing prowess has suffered with 6.8 and 7.0 yards per attempt and back-to-back finishes with less than 30 passing touchdowns and a 4.5% passing touchdown rate. His rushing production is a nice added value bump at this point that we should expect. Mahomes has finished inside the top 12 quarterbacks in rushing yards in each of the past five seasons (12th, 7th, 9th, 6th, 10th). We know that Kansas City will pass a ton. That is a given at this point, as they have ranked in the top three in neutral passing rate in each of the last four seasons. The worry for Mahomes has been that he has quietly struggled as a passer over the last two seasons. Last year, among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked 29th in highly accurate throw rate and 19th in CPOE. His shortcomings as a deep passer have plagued him for the last two seasons, as he has been in the bottom ten in CPOE and in the top ten in off-target rate with deep passes (per Fantasy Points Data). Mahomes will have the volume and rushing equity to finish as a QB1 again this year, but unless his passing skills return to a top-shelf level, it’s tough to consider him as anything more than a low-end QB1.
Let’s call a spade a spade here. Caleb Williams had a VERY tough rookie season. The ballyhooed savior of the Windy City didn’t exactly have the start to his career that many people hoped for and hyped. Williams was the QB21 in fantasy points per game, which was aided greatly by his legs (seventh in rushing yards among quarterbacks). Williams was the QB12 in expected fantasy points per game, so the disappointment was very real. When we discuss what he did as a passer, the true tragedy becomes apparent. Last year, among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, Williams ranked 34th in yards per attempt, 24th in CPOE, and 26th in highly accurate throw rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Williams had the ninth-highest off-target rate and the second-lowest catchable target rate (only Anthony Richardson was worse). The Bears have added a TON of personnel to help Williams find his footing in year two with offensive line upgrades, a strong play-caller (Ben Johnson), and the additions of Luther Burden and Colston Loveland. I do believe Williams will take a step forward, but the real question is how much. Williams is best viewed as a dice roll QB2.
Check out Joe’s full Fantasy Football Draft Cheat Sheet
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