Even after almost three full months of the Major League Baseball and fantasy baseball seasons, it’s important to look for players who could experience positive and negative regression. With so few games and plate appearances for each player, we will see wild swings away from normal production, and the tendency is to overreact. Sometimes we think a player is what he has been up to this point, but that is far from the truth.
Regression often comes at players quickly. When we see a player on an extreme hot or cold streak, things are likely to course correct. That’s what we will try to predict here, with some advice on how to handle these moments.
Even after almost three full months of the Major League Baseball and fantasy baseball seasons, it’s important to look for players who could experience positive and negative regression. With so few games and plate appearances for each player, we will see wild swings away from normal production, and the tendency is to overreact. Sometimes we think a player is what he has been up to this point, but that is far from the truth.
Regression often comes at players quickly. When we see a player on an extreme hot or cold streak, things are likely to course correct. That’s what we will try to predict here, with some advice on how to handle these moments.
Fantasy Baseball Regression Candidates
This series highlights players due for positive or negative regression compared to their recent performance each week to assist fantasy managers in viewing each one properly. Digging underneath the surface stats, we will examine some hitting and pitching metrics to determine if a given player is overperforming or underperforming what should be expected.
Last week, this piece correctly predicted negative regression for Christian Yelich (.238 average with one home run and zero steals over the last week) and for Andy Pages (zero home runs, zero steals and a 35% strikeout rate in the past seven days). Regression, whether positive or negative, doesn’t always occur quickly, but the warning signs are often clear.
With the first 14 weeks of the Major League Baseball season behind us and about 75-80 games still to go for almost every team, there will be a lot of positive and negative regression moving forward. Let’s take a look at some of the past week’s largest outliers and see what their futures might look like.
(Stats up to date through July 1st)
Players Due for Positive Regression
Ben Rice (1B, C, DH – NYY)
Ben Rice is a hot topic of conversation in fantasy baseball because he has now played nine games at catcher this season. That means for leagues that require a 10-game minimum to qualify for a position, Rice just needs one more appearance to be eligible there. That would be a massive boon for the position, considering he has 14 home runs, three stolen bases and a .471 slugging rate. Even though he is only in an all-time cold streak right now, there are clear signs this could turn around.
First, Rice’s batting average on balls in play (BABIP) over the last week is literally .000. He has one home run (which doesn’t factor into BABIP) and no other hits on all his balls in play. The league average for BABIP this season is around .288, so this is some terrible bad luck for Rice. Add in the fact that his 17% walk rate is the same as his 17% strikeout rate, and you have a hitter who is seeing the ball well and commanding the zone the way he wants. This is a turnaround waiting to happen, especially if he can pile up consistent at-bats.
Teoscar Hernandez (OF – LAD)
Since Teoscar Hernandez returned from the injured list (IL) on May 19th, it has not been pretty for the Los Angeles Dodgers right fielder. Since that time, he has been hitting .206/.259/.368 with just five home runs and one stolen base. It’s absolutely possible that his groin injury is lingering and Hernandez is not fully healthy, but he has only missed two games since he returned, so we have to assume the team thinks he is good to go. The bat just hasn’t been there, and some bad fortune may be to blame.
Over the last week, Hernandez is hitting just .217/.250/.304 with zero home runs, runs or stolen bases. But he is still playing every day and only striking out 20% of the time. His BABIP is way below league average, and the bad luck is dragging down all rate and counting stats with it.
On the season, Hernandez has lowered his strikeout rate from over 28% in 2024 to just 23% this season. His fly ball rate is identical to last year, and his line drive rate is up over 2024. Assuming he is healthy, this is a profile that screams bad luck. Based on Hernandez’s track record, he should improve as he gets further and further away from his groin injury.
Players Due for Negative Regression
Brandon Lowe (2B – TB)
Brandon Lowe is one of the best fantasy baseball stories this year. At 30 years old, Lowe is having a career year with a .275/.327/.490 line with 18 home runs and 49 RBI. He is just a hair away from being on pace for a 35-homer, 100-RBI season as a second baseman. And while many metrics support this breakout (hard-hit rate, barrel rate, exit velocity, etc.), what he has done over the last seven or eight games is simply unfathomable and won’t continue too much longer.
Lowe has a BABIP of .500 over the last seven games, which has led to a .444/.524/.944 line plus a 14% walk rate. The power is still alive with three home runs, but so is the strikeout rate (24%). Lowe is on a hot streak that is hard for any player to sustain. Once the underlying metrics normalize, he should settle back into his very good, but not elite, numbers. He is still a very valuable fantasy asset this year, but don’t expect a lot more weeks like the one Lowe has just had.
Spencer Steer (1B, OF – CIN)
The Cincinnati Reds are a group of fascinating hitters, but I believe there is one who will not remain on their current trajectory: First baseman/outfielder Spencer Steer. He started the season miserably, hitting just .174/.248/.272 in March/April with two home runs and one stolen base, but that’s quickly changed. In May, that improved to .270/.336/.390 with eight extra base hits and a handful of steals. In June, Steer looked like an All-Star with a .302 average and a .521 slugging rate with five home runs. But under the hood, there are some signs this resurgence over the last few weeks is built on shaky ground and is about to come crashing down soon.
First, Steer’s BABIP of .467 over the last week is a top-15 mark in the league in the last week, so he has been incredibly lucky in the batting average department. Second, his strikeout rate is over 24% while his walk rate is just 4%. That’s clear evidence he is not seeing the ball well and possibly swinging at too many pitches outside the zone.
On the season as a whole, Steer’s first-pitch strike rate is up, his contact rate is down and his swing rate on pitches outside the zone is up. All of these are clear signs that this short-term success is not set up for long-term sustainability. There is power in his bat, but a .417 average and a .833 slugging rate over the last week will come crashing down soon.
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