6 Mid-Round Dynasty Draft Picks to Target (Fantasy Football)

With dynasty startup drafts reaching peak popularity this time of year, it’s a great time to discuss some of the most undervalued players in the dynasty fantasy football market today. In this article, I’ll reveal my favorite dynasty draft picks from the first 10 rounds of 12-team Superflex PPR startup drafts.

I’m using Dynasty Data Lab to determine market average draft position (ADP), which pulled over 700 real Sleeper drafts with this league format, ensuring our ADP is as accurate as possible. Let’s dive in and uncover those hidden gems to give you an edge in your league. Here are dynasty draft values to target.

Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Values

Round 5: Trevor Lawrence | ADP: 5.01 (QB17)

Few players were more disappointing than Trevor Lawrence in 2024, posting just 15.2 PPG, ranking down at QB22. However, things look promising for Lawrence as he heads into Year 5, with the addition of wide receiver Travis Hunter and head coach Liam Coen, who helped to revive Baker Mayfield‘s career.

We’ve seen Lawrence hit 17+ PPG in multiple seasons, which feels like the floor for him moving forward in this new revamped offense. Lawrence turns only 26 this season, meaning we can reasonably expect another eight or more seasons from him as a starter. He’ll never compete for QB1 overall, but he should be able to post low-end QB1 numbers if he bounces back.

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Round 6: Chris Olave | ADP: 6.12 (WR24)

I wanted to pick Dak Prescott here (ADP 6.05), but I’ll go with Chris Olave to avoid bringing you a quarterback for every mid-round value. Olave has seen his dynasty value plummet following an injury-riddled 2024 season, where concussions have become a genuine concern. The Saints also project to be one of the worst offenses in the NFL in 2025, with either Tyler Shough or Spencer Rattler under center.

But if New Orleans is bad enough, they’ll be airing it out consistently, which could be bullish for Olave. Despite popular belief, we can’t predict future head injuries, so I’m not letting that deter me from drafting Olave at the end of the sixth round. We saw him post back-to-back thousand-yard seasons to kick off his career, and he can get back to this production for the next half-decade, assuming health.

Round 7: Jaylen Waddle | ADP: 7.08 (WR30)

Jaylen Waddle may be the most obvious value on the board, falling to the late-seventh round after a dismal 2024 season. Given Tua Tagovailoa‘s injury and the Dolphins’ utter incompetence at the offensive end, I’m willing to throw away last season as an outlier. Of course, another head injury to Tagovailoa would be devastating, but as mentioned, we can’t sit back and predict head injuries with any reasonable accuracy.

Miami’s franchise signal-caller is healthy now, and I’m valuing Waddle based on that fact. Jonnu Smith, who was an integral part of this passing offense in 2024, is now headed to Pittsburgh. Tyreek Hill is 31 years old and is showing clear signs of decline. All signs point to Waddle having a career year in 2025. We’ve seen him post 15+ PPG in multiple seasons, and I think he gets back to that production again.

Round 8: Tua Tagovailoa | ADP: 8.03 (QB24)

Speaking of the Dolphins, Tua Tagovailoa comes in as my favorite value in the eighth round, with an ADP of 8.03 (87th overall). He’s being valued as a low-end QB2 or high-end QB3 in dynasty circles despite finishing as the QB16 or higher in PPG in the past three seasons. Let everyone else panic about hypothetical injuries.

If you can push drafting your QB2 until this range of the draft and take Tagovailoa, that gives you the luxury to draft another elite difference-maker at the other skill positions earlier in the draft, while still having the stability and safe floor of Tagovailoa in your Superflex spot. That’s what we call maximizing value.

Round 9: Josh Downs | ADP: 9.10 (WR43)

Since Josh Downs has entered the league, he’s done nothing but produce from a per-route basis. In 2024, he posted a 29.6% target rate, ranking sixth in the NFL. The only things holding him back are quarterback play and the fact that he isn’t running every route.

The quarterback situation is still a bit murky, with Daniel Jones or Anthony Richardson as the top options in 2025, but I believe Downs will begin running more routes for the Colts moving forward. Indianapolis drafted tight end Tyler Warren in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft, which should allow them to run more 11 personnel, meaning more 3-WR sets.

Downs posted 13.1 PPG last season with a sub-80% route participation. Imagine what he can do if that number bumps up to 90% or higher.

Round 10: Tyrone Tracy | ADP: 10.09 (RB31)

To wrap things up, we have Tyrone Tracy, who is valued as the RB31 in dynasty this offseason. He’s going over a round after Cam Skattebo, the Day 3 pick for the Giants in the 2025 NFL Draft. I don’t necessarily consider myself a Tracy bull, but why are we already assuming Skattebo overtakes him as the lead back?

Tracy had a solid rookie campaign in a less-than-ideal situation. Despite being an older prospect, Tracy doesn’t have much tread on his tires, as he was deployed as a wide receiver for much of his college career. If Tracy can hold off Skattebo, or even be the lead back in a 60/40 split, I think he will be a clear value at the end of the 10th round.

Thanks for taking the time to check out this article. If you have any dynasty, devy or C2C questions, feel free to contact me at X @jim_DFF.