Fantasy baseball is a marathon, not a sprint. Unlike other fantasy sports, the season is long and drags on as the weeks roll on. However, because it is such a grind, fantasy managers can lose focus on what’s important, allowing astute fantasy managers to take advantage.
Hot streaks and cold streaks can scare your competition. Sometimes, underlying numbers aren’t showing up in the surface numbers quite yet. If someone in your league is ready to overreact, take advantage of their impatience.
Here are some players I would try and buy low and sell high on at this point in the season. Use our fantasy baseball trade analyzer to help with values.
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Fantasy Baseball Trade Advice
Buy Low
Brenton Doyle (OF – COL)
Brenton Doyle has struggled this season, hitting just .201/.252/.320 with six home runs and eight stolen bases. However, his underlying numbers are right in line with where they were last season; he has just been getting unlucky. Doyle dealt with a family tragedy earlier this season that may still be impacting him on the field, but I would expect that he will bounce back in the second half.
Ben Rice (C, 1B, DH – NYY)
After a fast start, Ben Rice has struggled since the calendar turned to June, hitting .193/295/.349 with three home runs and a stolen base. However, the underlying numbers are fine, and he now has catcher eligibility in all formats, making him a valuable player once the numbers catch up to the skills.
Jose Soriano (SP – LAA)
Jose Soriano has been up and down this season; however, the underlying numbers have been intriguing recently. The stuff has been really good, and the swinging strike rate has been climbing along with it. This may be the last time to buy low on him.
Tanner Bibee (SP – CLE)
Tanner Bibbe had seemed like he turned things around after a rough first month, but was roughed up in his last outing. However, over his last 11 starts, his underlying numbers have been great with a low walk rate and low home run rate while striking out almost a batter an inning with a 3.39 FIP. Bibee should resemble the pitcher we have seen in the past moving forward.
Sell High
Isaac Collins (OF – MIL)
Isaac Collins has been pretty good since his call-up, hitting .263/.366/.406 with five home runs and eight stolen bases in 207 plate appearances. However, he has been really lucky with a high batting average on balls in play (BABIP). His xBA is .236, and he just doesn’t strike the ball with a lot of authority. I would expect the production to fall off.
Jordan Beck (OF, DH – COL)
Jordan Beck has been great this season, hitting .270/.325/.464 with 10 home runs and 10 stolen bases this season. However, a lot of production came during an April weekend when he was extremely hot, hitting five home runs and stealing a base in two days. Since then, he has only hit five home runs and stolen six bases in 265 plate appearances with a .265 average. Without an inflated BABIP, he would be hitting about .210.
Zack Littell (SP – TB)
Zack Littell has quietly been great this season, throwing 110.2 innings with a 3.50 ERA and 76 strikeouts. However, he has been extremely lucky. His home run rate is almost two home runs per nine innings this season, and his xERA is 4.57. He has gotten extremely lucky in BABIP and strand rates. When those regress, he will be in a lot of trouble.
Andrew Abbott (SP – CIN)
Andrew Abbott has been unreal this season, throwing 83.2 innings with a 2.15 ERA and 78 strikeouts. However, he has been really lucky with a .259 BABIP and a really high strand rate. His xFIP is 4.11 and his stuff is underwhelming.
Abbott’s 8.5% HR/FB rate is unsustainable considering how many fly balls he allows in such a hitter- and homer-friendly park. You could get a lot by trading him, and I would pursue trade opportunities before the regression hits.
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