Draft day is all about finding value and avoiding costly mistakes – and Average Draft Position (ADP) is one of the best tools to help you do both. By comparing where players are being drafted to their projected production, fantasy football managers can spot potential steals and sidestep landmines. To give you a winning edge for 2025 drafts, we’ve gathered 30 players experts draft and avoid at ADP from our collection of Featured Pros experts. This list highlights the players our analysts avoid at their current ADP so you can make smarter picks and build a championship-ready roster.
- Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2025 Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football ADP
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Players Fantasy Football Experts Avoid at ADP: Running Backs
Who is a player you’re AVOIDING in drafts based on his current ADP (top-150) and why?
Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND)
“Jonathan Taylor – The Colts are currently projected for the seventh-fewest points in the NFL. As a non-pass-catching back, Taylor essentially has one path to paying off his mid-2nd round ADP – touchdowns, something that may be hard to come by for his offense. Taylor was a hero during the fantasy playoffs last year – averaging 30.3 Half-PPR points per game. This finish, which came on the back of an unsustainable 31.67 rushes per game against three of the worst teams in the league last year, potentially distorted many people’s view of what was otherwise a fine, but not special, season from Taylor (RB19 per game in weeks 1-15). JT is a special player who certainly could prove me wrong, but other RBs going behind (ex. Bucky Irving, Chase Brown) seem to have more outs to fantasy success.”
– Charlie Sisian (The Fantasy DC)
Quinshon Judkins (RB – CLE)
“I seriously don’t understand why Quinshon Judkins is going so high – he’s currently 86th in ADP. He hasn’t signed with the Browns and was arrested in July on a domestic violence charge. There are way too many red flags. Meanwhile, you can get Jerome Ford at 140th in ADP or Dylan Sampson at 157th. I’d be comfortable taking Ford anywhere after pick 105.”
– Brady Auer (BA Sports Podcast)
Breece Hall (RB – NYJ)
“Breece Hall is still being valued pretty high for a guy who is no longer a bell cow RB. In fact, Jets head coach Aaron Glenn has hinted at an RBBC, comprising Hall and Braelon Allen, where Allen gets the short-yardage and potential goal-line touches. Glenn said, “With Braelon, a 240-pound man that’s always falling forward. Listen, that’s where he’s going to make his money.” In addition, it’s hard to imagine Hall’s reception total going up without Aaron Rodgers at QB. Justin Fields is younger and faster, and much more likely to take off and run when there is pressure rather than dumping off a pass to his RB in the flat. And this just in, per Tony Pauline of Sportskeeda, people close to this situation think Hall might be moved before the trade deadline, which could be good or bad news for his fantasy outlook, depending on where he ends up. Hall’s 2025 fantasy outlook seems risky given the uncertainty and his expensive price tag (current ADP at RB 13).”
– Mark Ringo (Sleepers and Busts)
Saquon Barkley (RB – PHI)
“Saquon Barkley had a season for the ages last year! If not for sitting out week 17, he would be in the record books! Currently, his ADP is #2 overall, and that scares me! I hope he has a great year, but historically, this has not proven to be the case. He has many factors not in his favor, including the fact that he is in his age 28 season, has only played two complete seasons in his career (rookie and I am counting last year), and statistically, many running backs coming off of a 400+ touch season see a decline in production the next year. Add to all those reasons that teams will more than likely move their focus to the run game and challenge Hurts to beat them through the air (and he is on the cover of Madden). Do I see Barkley dropping to RB30, no, but I do have enough trepidation that I am avoiding drafting him as a top 5 pick in redraft leagues when players like Bijan Robison, Ja’Marr Chase, and Jahmyr Gibbs are available and in great positions to be the anchors for fantasy teams.”
– Adam Dove (The Fantasy Couriers)
Joe Mixon (RB – HOU)
“I consider Joe Mixon completely undraftable, and yet he has an ADP in the low-end RB2 range. This foot injury he’s dealing with is alarming. It’s the sort of thing that could lead to a long absence and perhaps linger all season. Plus, the Texans might have the worst offensive line in the league, and rookie Woody Marks could steal some of Mixon’s passing-down work. The red flags are a-flyin’.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB – DET)
“Jahmyr Gibbs is an awesome player. But y’all are just ignoring reality by taking him in the middle of Round 1 (or even earlier). Gibbs exploited two key factors in his terrific 2024 finish: 1) David Montgomery went down. Gibbs tied for just 20th in expected half-PPR points per game through 14 weeks with a healthy Monty. That jumped to 4th from the injury game on. 2) Detroit got lucky on offense. The Lions’ 4.0 offensive TDs per game were the most since the 2018 Chiefs (4.1), and only two other teams have reached that mark since 2010. All three dipped in TD production the following year. Detroit’s compounding the challenge by switching OCs after three years under Ben Johnson. So Gibbs will almost certainly see less work vs. last year’s hot streak. His team will almost certainly score less. Yet you’re so sure he can keep it going that you’ll take him in the first half of Round 1? Easy pass for me.”
– Matt Schauf (Draft Sharks)
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn
