Thankfully, the 2025 fantasy football season is just around the corner. Each year, fantasy players want to construct their team with a proper mix of good-value players and upside sleepers while avoiding players with high bust potential. Here are notable fantasy football player outlooks for the AFC South.
- Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Most Accurate Fantasy Football Rankings
- Fantasy Football ADP
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Fantasy Football Draft Busts: AFC South
Fantasy Football Bust Candidates
Brian Thomas Jr. (JAC): ADP 14.5 | WR8
Let me be clear before an angry mob gets organized – I do not think Thomas will be a bust this season. He is the WR8 in ADP and the WR10 in my rankings. However, Thomas does have some meaningful risk after the Jaguars traded up in the NFL Draft for Travis Hunter. While Jacksonville hasn’t offered much clarity on how much the rookie will play on offense, fantasy players should prepare for Hunter to play significant snaps alongside Thomas.
Last year, he finished as the WR4, averaging 16.7 PPR fantasy points per game, thanks to an outstanding run at the end of the season. Thomas was the WR10 over the first 14 weeks, averaging 6.5 targets, 0.46 touchdowns, and 14 fantasy points per game. By comparison, he was the WR1 over the final month, averaging 12 targets, one touchdown, and 25.5 fantasy points per game, totaling at least 10 targets and 17.3 fantasy points in every outing.
Unfortunately, Thomas’ spike in production came with Evan Engram and Christian Kirk out of the lineup, leading to the increase in targets. Furthermore, he could see a decline in deep ball targets after the Jaguars signed Dyami Brown in free agency, after Thomas ranked second in the NFL with 30 last year (per Fantasy Points Data). While he should get drafted as a low-end WR1 this season, Thomas is far from bust-proof and could fall short of expectations.
Michael Pittman Jr. (IND): ADP 116.8 | WR49
Pittman is one of my favorite dynasty buy-low trade targets because I believe he is heading into his final season with the Colts. Unfortunately, the former USC star is stuck in an unfriendly fantasy situation in Indianapolis. Last year, the veteran was the WR41, averaging 10.4 PPR fantasy points per game, his lowest average since his rookie season in 2020. Furthermore, Pittman’s three receiving touchdowns were the lowest total of his career since his rookie year.
More importantly, he saw a massive drop in target volume. After averaging 8.8 or more targets per game each of the previous two seasons, Pittman averaged 6.9 per contest in 2024 despite back-to-back performances with 10 targets in Week 17 and Week 18, accounting for over 18% of his total for the year. Furthermore, the veteran is no longer the Colts’ top wide receiver, averaging fewer targets and fantasy points per game than Josh Downs (7.6 and 13.1).
Moreover, Alec Pierce averaged only 0.3 fewer fantasy points per game than Pittman last season despite seeing 2.6 fewer targets per outing (4.3). Unfortunately, Indianapolis spent their first-round NFL Draft pick on Tyler Warren, who should significantly impact Pittman’s target volume in the middle of the field. More importantly, Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones were two of the most inaccurate passers in the NFL last year. I refuse to draft Pittman as a top 120 pick.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn
Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
