Many factors go into fantasy football players winning their redraft league every year. However, the top factor is arguably avoiding players that will bust or are overpriced at their average draft position (ADP). Let’s look at players who are overpriced draft values based on Sleeper ADP for redraft leagues.
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Overvalued Fantasy Football Players to Avoid
Bucky Irving (RB – TB) | ADP: 19.5 (RB8)
While he ended last season as a league winner, Irving is overrated as the RB8 in ADP. Last year, he finished as the RB13, averaging 14.4 PPR fantasy points per outing. However, Rachaad White is still a factor in the backfield, especially in the passing game.
According to Fantasy Points Data, White had a higher route participation rate (44.5% vs. 32.9%), first-read target share (9.1% vs. 7.3%) and third-down route participation rate (61.9% vs. 10.2%) than Irving. He shouldn’t get drafted ahead of Josh Jacobs, Jonathan Taylor or Chase Brown.
Joe Mixon (RB – HOU) | ADP: 57.1 (RB21)
Last year, Joe Mixon was the RB9 on a points-per-game basis, averaging 17.2 PPR fantasy points per outing, posting a higher average than Kyren Williams (17) and James Cook (16.7). However, his production fell off a cliff late in the season.
Mixon was the RB42 over the final three weeks, averaging 5.9 fantasy points per game and 3.8 yards per rushing attempt. Unfortunately, the veteran is dealing with a foot injury, putting his Week 1 status in question. Furthermore, the Texans have one of the worst offensive lines in the league.
Chris Godwin (WR – TB) | ADP: 82.2 (WR37)
Unfortunately, Chris Godwin is trending towards starting the year on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list after suffering a season-ending lower leg injury in 2024 that required two surgeries. Furthermore, he will likely spend a significant part of the year on a snap count because of the injury.
More importantly, Tampa Bay has a plethora of options at wide receiver. Jalen McMillan had a strong finish to his rookie season, and first-round draft pick Emeka Egbuka has been the star of training camp. Therefore, Godwin has too much risk to warrant his ADP.
Jonnu Smith (TE – PIT) | ADP: 95.6 (TE11)
Jonnu Smith was the TE4 last year, averaging 13.1 PPR fantasy points per game, a career-high. However, fantasy players should avoid drafting him anywhere near his current ADP. Smith will be on the wrong side of 30 when the 2025 season starts.
Furthermore, players rarely have a breakout year this late in their careers and maintain that level of success. More importantly, the veteran has never been a factor in Arthur Smith’s offense, averaging 3.7 targets and 7.7 fantasy points per game in three seasons with Smith as the play-caller.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
