Draft day is all about finding value and avoiding costly mistakes – and Average Draft Position (ADP) is one of the best tools to help you do both. By comparing where players are being drafted to their projected production, fantasy football managers can spot potential steals and sidestep landmines. To give you a winning edge for 2025 drafts, we’ve gathered 30 players experts draft and avoid at ADP from our collection of Featured Pros experts. This list highlights the players our analysts are targeting at their current ADP, as well as the ones they’re avoiding, so you can make smarter picks and build a championship-ready roster.
- Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2025 Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football ADP
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Players Experts Avoid at ADP
Who is a player you’re AVOIDING in drafts based on his current ADP (top-150) and why?
Brian Thomas Jr. (WR – JAC)
“I think Brian Thomas Jr. is a phenomenal talent, but his current ADP of WR8 is too rich for me, given the type of usage we’re likely to see from Travis Hunter in the offense. I believe we would be drafting BTJ at his ceiling. While I still think he can finish as a top-15 player in FPPG, I would rather draft someone like De’Von Achane or Drake London in that range, as I believe they have a higher ceiling.”
– Nick Penticoff (Fantasy Football Astronauts)
Caleb Williams (QB – CHI)
“Caleb Williams is a player I’m avoiding at his current ADP of 108 (QB15), which feels inflated given his volatile rookie season. Despite throwing for 3,541 yards and 20 touchdowns, he finished as the QB16 with just 254.5 fantasy points and showed troubling traits like poor pocket presence and holding the ball too long. Chicago added weapons like Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland, but the offense remains unproven, and the line allowed a league-high 68 sacks last year. Even with new head coach Ben Johnson calling plays, Williams is a boom-or-bust pick who hasn’t earned fantasy trust. Unless every other viable QB is off the board and I’m forced to take a flier as insurance, I’m not touching him.”
– Lawrence Iacona (Gridiron Experts)
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DET)
“I’m avoiding Lions receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown at his ADP of 11.0 (WR5) due to the high likelihood of regression for the Lions’ offense in 2025. Detroit’s explosive 2024 season set a high bar, but their touchdown output is likely to drop by at least 10, given defensive adjustments and key losses on the offensive line. St. Brown’s elite target volume may dip with increased competition from teammates like Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta, diluting his production. His WR5 price assumes sustained dominance, but regression risks make him overvalued compared to other top-tier options.”
– Aaron St Denis (Fantasy Sports Advice Network)
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