Fantasy Football Heat Index: Buy or Sell Surprise Performances

Every Monday of the NFL regular season, we look at breakout performances from the weekend and analyze their potential for sustained success. We will rank these performances from 1-5 based on whether we believe they are momentary or long-term options for your fantasy teams.

Fantasy Football Heat Index

Quarterback

Jaxson Dart (QB – NYG)

Stats:

13-of-20 for 111 Passing Yards
1 Passing Touchdown
10 Rushing Attempts
54 Rushing Yards
1 Rushing Touchdown

Position Rank (pre-MNF): QB9 (19.8 fantasy points)

Analysis: Rookie Jaxson Dart’s Week 4 debut for the New York Giants provided fantasy managers a glimpse of his dual-threat potential. He completed 13 of 20 passes for 111 yards and a touchdown while also adding 54 rushing yards and another score on the ground, finishing with 19.8 fantasy points in standard formats. His ability to extend plays and contribute on the ground provides a stable floor, especially in Superflex and two-quarterback leagues.

However, the loss of Malik Nabers to a torn ACL is a significant setback for Dart in the passing game. Nabers was the Giants’ most dynamic weapon and a key part of their vertical game. Without him, Dart may need to lean on short-area targets like Darius Slayton and Theo Johnson, which could limit explosive plays and reduce overall fantasy output.

Heat Index: 3

Running Back

Woody Marks (RB – HOU)

Stats:

17 Rushing Attempts
69 Rushing Yards
1 Rushing Touchdown
4 Receptions
50 Receiving Yards
1 Receiving Touchdown

Position Rank (pre-MNF): RB6 (25.9 fantasy points)

Analysis: Woody Marks delivered a breakout performance in Week 4, helping the Houston Texans secure their first win of 2025 with a 26–0 shutout of the Tennessee Titans. The rookie running back totaled 119 yards and two touchdowns on 21 touches, including a 12-yard receiving score and a bruising 18-yard run that capped off a dominant fourth quarter.

Marks served as a reliable outlet for quarterback C.J. Stroud, catching four passes for 50 yards and showing burst between the tackles with 69 rushing yards on 17 carries. His versatility helped Houston sustain drives and control the clock, which the team had struggled with in the first three weeks.

Fantasy managers should view Marks as a high-priority waiver add, especially in PPR formats. With Nick Chubb’s usage and effectiveness declining weekly, the rookie has quickly emerged as the more valuable fantasy option in Houston’s backfield.

Heat Index: 4

Wide Receiver

Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR – SF)

Stats:

6 Receptions
72 Receiving Yards
1 Touchdown
3 Rushing Attempts
9 Rushing Yards

Position Rank (pre-MNF): WR10 (17.1 fantasy points)

Analysis: Deebo Samuel Sr. stepped into a featured role in Week 4 with Terry McLaurin sidelined by a quad injury. Samuel finished with six receptions for 72 yards and a touchdown. He led the Washington Commanders in targets and operated as the primary option in Kliff Kingsbury’s short-area passing attack.

Without McLaurin stretching the field, Samuel was used in motion, screens and crossing routes to help backup quarterback Marcus Mariota stay ahead of the chains. His 17.1 Half-PPR points marked his second-highest output of the season and reaffirmed his value as a volume-based WR2.

Samuel’s fantasy outlook remains strong as long as McLaurin is out. His involvement in both the passing and running game gives him a stable weekly floor, and Washington’s scheme continues to funnel touches his way. Fantasy managers should view him as a reliable starter, particularly in PPR formats.

Heat Index: 4

Tight End

Kyle Pitts Sr. (TE – ATL)

Stats:

5 Receptions
70 Receiving Yards
1 Touchdown

Position Rank (pre-MNF): TE3 (15.5 fantasy points)

Analysis: Kyle Pitts Sr. had his best game of the season in Week 4, catching five passes for 70 yards and a touchdown. He capitalized on a red-zone opportunity with a third-quarter score, finishing with a season-high 15.5 Half-PPR fantasy points.

While this week’s performance was encouraging, fantasy managers should be cautious given Pitts’ history of inconsistent production. He remains a low-end TE1 with upside, but don’t overreact to an outlier performance.

Heat Index: 3