Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice: Tight Ends
Start’Em
Hunter Henry is the TE3 in fantasy points per game after his colossal 29 PPR point performance last week. Overall, he has a 19.8% target share (70% route share), 1.81 yards per route run (55 receiving yards per game), and a 22.5% first-read share. Carolina has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game and the most receiving yards to tight ends.
Dalton Kincaid is the TE6 in fantasy points per game with two top-four weekly scoring finishes this season (TE4, TE4). He has two red zone targets already (two scores). The biggest issue with Kincaid’s production is that he’s doing it with just a 56.5% route share. He’s compensating for the lack of routes with a 25% target per route run rate, which is great, but I don’t know how sustainable that is. Overall, Kincaid has a 15.8% target share with 2.32 yards per route run (50.3 receiving yards per game) and a 19% first-read share. The Saints have allowed the 12th-highest yards per reception and the 13th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
T.J. Hockenson hasn’t had the start to the season that many hoped for as the TE22 in fantasy points per game, but he flashed some life last week. In Week 3, he had a 25% target share with 49 receiving yards (2.72 yards per route run) and a 30% first-read share. He is still waiting to see his first red zone target of the season, but the increased usage was nice to see against Cincy. Hockenson is a strong start this week against a pass defense that has yielded the fifth-most yards per reception, the sixth-most receiving yards, and the second-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Mark Andrews had a big bounce-back game last week. After that one monster performance, he is the TE12 in fantasy points per game. He has three red zone targets over the last two games. Andrews has a 69.9% route share, a 13.2% target share, 32.7 receiving yards per game (1.51 yards per route run), and an 18.5% first-read share. The Chiefs have the second-highest two-high rate in the NFL (71.2%). Against two high, Andrews has a 14.3% target share and a 21.1% first-read share. The Chiefs have faced the second-fewest targets to tight ends this season, but they have allowed the fourth-highest yards per reception to the position. Last season, they gave up the sixth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Sit’Em
Juwan Johnson has been a pleasant surprise this season. He is the TE2 in fantasy points per game, ranking second in red zone targets (three), second in targets (28), second in receptions (19), and fifth in receiving yards (176) among tight ends. Johnson has a 23.1% target share (second on the team) with 1.71 yards per route run (58.7 receiving yards per game), and a 28.7% first-read share (second to only Chris Olave). He should still see plenty of volume this week, but Buffalo has shut down opposing tight ends, giving up the fewest receiving yards and yards per reception and the second-fewest fantasy points per game to the position.
Zach Ertz is the TE8 in fantasy points per game. He has two red zone targets and two scores this season. Ertz has a 16.1% target share, 1.60 yards per route run (42.7 receiving yards per game), and an 18.6% first-read share. This week, he faces an Atlanta pass defense that has the second-highest single high rate (67.3%) in the NFL. Against single-high, Ertz has just a 9.8% target share, 0.83 yards per route run, and an 8.6% first-read share. This isn’t the week to expect much from Ertz. The Falcons have held tight ends to the fewest fantasy points per game and the tenth-fewest yards per reception.
Cade Otton has been a nothingburger in this offense. He’ll get a bump from Mike Evans‘ injury, but I don’t think that usage bump comes this week. Otton has had only a 6.1% target share, 0.30 yards per route run (8.3 receiving yards per game), and a 6.2% first-read share. Philly has kept tight ends in check, giving up the third-fewest fantasy points per game and the fifth-fewest receiving yards.
Brenton Strange has one TE1 finish this season. That was last week as the TE7 in fantasy. He’s still waiting for his first red zone target this season, so expecting a touchdown from him in any week right now is probably a fool’s errand. Strange has a 65% route share with a 14.2% target share, 1.76 yards per route run (45.7 receiving yards per game), and a 14.4% first-read share. Strange isn’t on the streaming radar this week. San Francisco has held tight ends to the eighth-lowest yards per reception and the tenth-fewest receiving yards.
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