If it’s not injuries crushing our fantasy football dreams, it’s ridiculous coaching. Ok, I’m going to hop on my soapbox for a second before we dive into the Week 4 fantasy football action.
[Deep Breath]
What happened to playing your best players in full-time roles?
What happened to running your offenses through your best players?
Yes, I know you’re thinking…what the hell is he ranting about? Well, if you’ve noticed a decent amount of footnotes this season in the Primer about certain wide receiver rooms around the NFL, then you already have a small inkling about what I’m uncorking here.
Too many NFL head coaches are getting too cute these days and playing 2-4 wide receivers in part-time route shares while having only one receiving option (maybe two), hitting that 70-80% and above route share. Yes, I’m staring at you, Sean Payton, Nick Caley, & Matt LaFleur. Oh, don’t worry, there’s more. Those are just the first names that came to mind. While I’m not saying that you can’t deploy a successful NFL offense with this approach, there’s something to be said for the Sean McVay approach.
Here are our best players. We’re going to run a helluva lot of our offense through them.
Ok, can you stop it? Good luck trying. Hopefully, this changes as we move through the season, but for now…thanks for coming to my coach talk. Welcome to the Week 4 Primer. Enjoy.
SEA vs. ARI | MIN vs. PIT | NO vs. BUF | TEN vs. HOU | CLE vs. DET | WAS vs. ATL | PHI vs. TB | CAR vs. NE | LAC vs. NYG | IND vs. LAR | JAC vs. SF | CHI vs. LV | BAL vs. KC | GB vs. DAL | NYJ vs. MIA | CIN vs. DEN
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Fantasy Football Primer
Minnesota Vikings vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
- MIN -2.5, O/U 41
- Minnesota Vikings vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Vikings Players & Weekly Rankings
| Carson Wentz | QB | QB2 |
| Jordan Mason | RB | RB1 |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | WR1 |
| Jordan Addison | WR | WR3 |
| Adam Thielen | WR | WR5 |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE | TE1 |
Steelers Players & Weekly Rankings
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | QB2 |
| Jaylen Warren | RB | RB2 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | RB | RB4 |
| D.K. Metcalf | WR | WR2/3 |
| Calvin Austin | WR | WR4/5 |
| Roman Wilson | WR | WR6 |
| Jonnu Smith | TE | TE2 |
| Pat Freiermuth | TE | TE2/3 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Last week, Carson Wentz was the QB13 in fantasy. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks fifth in yards per attempt and second in passer rating, but that’s where the good times stop. Among the same sample, he also has the lowest CPOE, ranks 18th in catchable target rate, and has the highest off-target rate. Wentz has another favorable matchup that could allow him to flirt with QB1 production despite his shortcomings as a passer. The Steelers’ pass defense has been riding the struggle bus this season, giving up the fifth-most yards per attempt, the ninth-highest passer rating, the second-highest CPOE, and the sixth-most passing yards per game. The only thing that could wreck Wentz’s day is the Steelers’ pass rush, which ranks 11th in pressure rate. Minnesota’s offensive line has the 13th-highest pressure rate over expectation and the 12th-fastest time to sack.
Jordan Addison will make his debut for the 2025 season this week after returning from suspension. Jordan Addison took another step forward last year as the WR23 in fantasy points per game. Yes, his stout touchdown production has helped along the way over the last two years, with 19 receiving touchdowns and 35 red zone targets (ranking in the top 15 among wide receivers in red zone targets each season). Last year, Addison had a 19% target share, 1.87 yards per route run (58.3 receiving yards per game), and a 23.1% first-read share. This could be a very nice showing from Addison this week if Carson Wentz can deliver him catchable targets. Pittsburgh leads the NFL in single-high rate (67.3%). Last year, against single high, Addison had a 20.9% target share, saw his yards per route run climb to 2.24, and had a 26.9% first-read share. The Steelers have allowed the eighth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
T.J. Hockenson hasn’t had the start to the season that many hoped for as the TE22 in fantasy points per game, but he flashed some life last week. In Week 3, he had a 25% target share with 49 receiving yards (2.72 yards per route run) and a 30% first-read share. He is still waiting to see his first red zone target of the season, but the increased usage was nice to see against Cincy. Hockenson is a strong start this week against a pass defense that has yielded the fifth-most yards per reception, the sixth-most receiving yards, and the second-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Let’s fill out those flex spots.
N/A
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.
Aaron Rodgers‘ fantasy output has far surpassed his play on the field. Rodgers is the QB14 in fantasy points per game, but he has been abysmal on a per-dropback basis. Among 37 qualifying passers, Rodgers ranks 19th in yards per attempt, 30th in CPOE, 26th in highly accurate throw rate, and 22nd in catchable target rate. Rodgers is headed for a long day in Week 4. The Vikings’ pass defense has allowed the ninth-fewest yards per attempt, the third-fewest passing yards per game, and the second-lowest CPOE. Brian Flores has dialed up blitzes at the seventh-highest rate, and Minnesota is second in pressure rate. Rodgers has melted under pressure with the fifth-lowest passer rating and the third-lowest CPOE.
Jaylen Warren has been gobbling up volume as the Steelers’ workhorse. Last week, he soaked up a 77.6% snap share with 69.2% of the rushing attempts and a 45.8% route share. He has averaged 18 touches and 91.3 total yards. Among 48 qualifying backs, he ranks ninth in missed tackles forced and 25th in yards after contact per attempt. His offensive line has done him no favors as he has zero explosive runs, but it’s not hard to see why, as he ranks 44th in yards before contact per attempt (0.70). Warren will need all the volume he can get this week and likely a touchdown to pay off for fantasy. If we remove Bijan Robinson imposing his will upon the Minnesota run defense, they have allowed 86 rushing yards per game, a 6% missed tackle rate, and only 1.51 yards after contact per attempt. Over the entire season, those stats would rank as 7th-lowest, third-lowest, and third-lowest. This is a horrible matchup for Warren. Warren is expected to play this week, but he has been listed as questionable with a knee injury. He practiced on a limited basis all week.
D.K. Metcalf is the WR33 in fantasy points per game, which has been helped by his two scores. He has a 19.3% target share, a 23.4% air-yard share, 1.63 yards per route run (45 receiving yards per game), and a 23.8% first-read share. His per-route metrics have been ghastly. Among 92 qualifying receivers, he ranks dead last in separation and 59th in route win rate. Things likely won’t get better this week. Minnesota utilizes two high at the highest rate in the NFL (75.5%). Against two high, Metcalf’s target share has dipped to 15.2% with only 1.16 yards per route run, and a 17.9% first-read share. Minnesota has allowed the 13th-fewest PPR points per target and the third-fewest fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers. Sit Metcalf this week, if possible.
Calvin Austin is the WR40 in fantasy points per game. That has been largely fueled by his two touchdowns (one red zone target). He has a 15.9% target share, 1.66 yards per route run (42 receiving yards per game), and a 20.6% first-read share. Austin is a flex play to avoid this week. Minnesota has allowed the 13th-fewest PPR points per target and the third-fewest fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Jonnu Smith is droppable. He’s the TE19 in fantasy points per game, seeing a 14.8% target share with 21.7 receiving yards per game (1.18 yards per route run) and a 17.5% first-read share. He has only a 56.7% route share and a 0.8 aDOT. Minnesota ranks 19th in yards per reception and 16th in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends.
The arrival of Jonnu Smith has crushed Pat Freiermuth. He is the TE32 in fantasy points per game with a 48.5% route share, an 11.4% target share, 21.7 receiving yards per game (1.38 yards per route run), and an 11.1% first-read share. He is droppable in all redraft formats.
SEA vs. ARI | MIN vs. PIT | NO vs. BUF | TEN vs. HOU | CLE vs. DET | WAS vs. ATL | PHI vs. TB | CAR vs. NE | LAC vs. NYG | IND vs. LAR | JAC vs. SF | CHI vs. LV | BAL vs. KC | GB vs. DAL | NYJ vs. MIA | CIN vs. DEN
New Orleans Saints vs. Buffalo Bills
- BUF -15.5, O/U 48
- New Orleans Saints vs. Buffalo Bills Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Saints Players & Weekly Rankings
| Spencer Rattler | QB | QB2 |
| Alvin Kamara | RB | RB2 |
| Kendre Miller | RB | RB4 |
| Chris Olave | WR | WR3 |
| Rashid Shaheed | WR | WR4 |
| Brandin Cooks | WR | WR6 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | TE1 |
Bills Players & Weekly Rankings
| Josh Allen | QB | QB1 |
| James Cook | RB | RB1 |
| Ray Davis | RB | RB5 |
| Ty Johnson | RB | RB4 |
| Khalil Shakir | WR | WR3/4 |
| Keon Coleman | WR | WR3/4 |
| Joshua Palmer | WR | WR5 |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | TE1/2 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Alvin Kamara is the RB22 in fantasy points per game. He is 11th in opportunity share and tenth in weighted opportunity share. He has averaged 19.7 touches and 77.7 total yards per game. The biggest worry with Kamara’s usage is the fact that in two of those three games, when Spencer Rattler had 46 and 39 passing attempts, respectively, Kamara only had two targets in each game. Among 48 qualifying backs, Kamara ranks 25th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 39th in yards after contact per attempt. Kamara is a strong play this week against a Bills’ run defense that has allowed the most rushing yards per game, the highest explosive run rate, and the fifth-most yards after contact per attempt. It’s a small bump for Kamara that Ed Oliver is out this week.
Dalton Kincaid is the TE6 in fantasy points per game with two top-four weekly scoring finishes this season (TE4, TE4). He has two red zone targets already (two scores). The biggest issue with Kincaid’s production is that he’s doing it with just a 56.5% route share. He’s compensating for the lack of routes with a 25% target per route run rate, which is great, but I don’t know how sustainable that is. Overall, Kincaid has a 15.8% target share with 2.32 yards per route run (50.3 receiving yards per game) and a 19% first-read share. The Saints have allowed the 12th-highest yards per reception and the 13th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Let’s fill out those flex spots.
Khalil Shakir is the WR49 in fantasy points per game. In Weeks 1 & 3, he finished as the WR26 and WR25 in weekly fantasy scoring. Shakir has a 12.9% target share, 1.42 yards per route run (40.3 receiving yards per game), and a 12.7% first-read share. He has two red zone targets, which both came in Week 1. The Saints have utilized single high at the ninth-highest rate in the NFL (58.4%). Against single high, Shakir has seen his target share increase to 17.3% with 1.86 yards per route run, and a 15.6% first-read share. These are all sizable increases in usage and efficiency, but the bigger takeaway is that they still aren’t eye-popping numbers across the board. Shakir has the talent to overcome a tough matchup and maximize his opportunities, but don’t expect a week-winning performance if he does “hit” this week. The Saints have held slot receivers to the ninth-fewest PPR points per target and the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game.
After his monster performance in Week 1, Keon Coleman has averaged 5.3 fantasy points per game over the last two weeks, failing to surpass 30 receiving yards in either game (zero red zone targets). He has had a 12.7% target share, averaged 23 receiving yards (1.12 yards per route run), and had an 18.9% first-read share. Coleman faces a Saints pass defense that has utilized single high at the ninth-highest rate (58.4%). Since Week 2, against single high, Coleman has had a 15% target per route run rate, 0.75 yards per route run, and a 15.8% first-read share. This could be a surprise big game for Coleman, though. Buffalo looked to him against single high last year as he led the team with 2.49 yards per route run and ranked second in first-read share (21.1%). This is a good spot to get Coleman going against a secondary that has allowed the second-most PPR points per target and the seventh-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Chris Olave has been a volume monster, carrying him to WR24 in fantasy points per game. He has at least ten targets in each game this season. Olave has a 28.9% target share, a 35.7% air-yard share, 1.42 yards per route run (55 receiving yards per game), and a 32.2% first-read share. Olave had two red zone targets. Olave should have another productive outing this week against a secondary that has faced the sixth-fewest perimeter wide receiver targets but ranks 15th in fantasy points per game and has allowed the fifth-most PPR points per target to the position.
Rashid Shaheed is the WR38 in fantasy points per game. He has one top 36 wide receiver finish this season in weekly scoring (WR26) and three red zone targets. Shaheed has a 16.5% target share, a 21.6% air-yard share, 42.3 receiving yards per game (1.17 yards per route run), and a 17.2% first-read share. He’s an interesting flex this week. Buffalo has faced the sixth-fewest perimeter wide receiver targets, but ranks 15th in fantasy points per game and has allowed the fifth-most PPR points per target to the position.
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.
Ok, let’s start with the good for Spencer Rattler. He ranks 13th-best in highly accurate throw rate, tenth in catchable target rate, and 12th in hero throw rate. The problem is he is also the QB23 in fantasy points per game, ranking 23rd in passer rating and fifth-worst in turnover-worthy throw rate. He can still put up QB2 numbers because of his passing volume, but I wouldn’t expect more than that. The Bills have held quarterbacks to the third-lowest success rate per dropback, the eighth-fewest yards per attempt, and the fewest passing yards per game.
Juwan Johnson has been a pleasant surprise this season. He is the TE2 in fantasy points per game, ranking second in red zone targets (three), second in targets (28), second in receptions (19), and fifth in receiving yards (176) among tight ends. Johnson has a 23.1% target share (second on the team) with 1.71 yards per route run (58.7 receiving yards per game), and a 28.7% first-read share (second to only Chris Olave). He should still see plenty of volume this week, but Buffalo has shut down opposing tight ends, giving up the fewest receiving yards and yards per reception and the second-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. It’s a small bump for Johnson that Matt Milano will miss this game (pectoral).
SEA vs. ARI | MIN vs. PIT | NO vs. BUF | TEN vs. HOU | CLE vs. DET | WAS vs. ATL | PHI vs. TB | CAR vs. NE | LAC vs. NYG | IND vs. LAR | JAC vs. SF | CHI vs. LV | BAL vs. KC | GB vs. DAL | NYJ vs. MIA | CIN vs. DEN
Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans
- HOU -7, O/U 38.5
- Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Titans Players & Weekly Rankings
| Cam Ward | QB | QB2 |
| Tony Pollard | RB | RB2 |
| Calvin Ridley | WR | WR4 |
| Elic Ayomanor | WR | WR4 |
| Tyler Lockett | WR | WR5 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | TE | TE2 |
Texans Players & Weekly Rankings
| C.J. Stroud | QB | QB2 |
| Nick Chubb | RB | RB3 |
| Woody Marks | RB | RB3/4 |
| Nico Collins | WR | WR1 |
| Christian Kirk | WR | WR4 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | WR | WR5/6 |
| Dalton Schultz | TE | TE2/3 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Is C.J. Stroud broken? I hope not, but it has been a rough start to the season. Stroud is the QB33 in fantasy points per game. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 25th in passing yards per game, 20th in yards per attempt, and highly accurate throw rate, 35th in CPOE, and 27th in catchable target rate. He has a possible “get right” matchup this week against Tennessee. The Titans have allowed the 11th-most yards per attempt and the tenth-highest CPOE and success rate per dropback. Stroud should have time to survey the field against a pass defense that has the 12th-lowest pressure rate.
Tony Pollard is the RB27 in fantasy points per game, averaging 19 touches and 80 total yards. He has been a volume hog for Tennessee, but their struggling offense has held him back. He ranks first among backs in snap share, second in opportunity share, and sixth in carries, but he’s only 28th in red zone touches (three). His tackle-breaking metrics have dipped as we’ve moved through the season with zero explosive runs, a 9% missed tackle rate, and only 2.24 yards after contact per attempt. Pollard has a good matchup this week against Houston, but I don’t know if he’ll be able to take advantage of it. Houston has allowed the second-highest missed tackle rate, the 11th-highest yards before contact per attempt, and ranks 16th in yards after contact per attempt. Pollard should flirt with 16-20 touches, so here’s to hoping that volume and talent can overcome.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Let’s fill out those flex spots.
Nick Chubb is the RB30 in fantasy points per game, averaging 13 touches and 57.3 total yards. He has averaged a 50.6% snap rate, 52.3% of the rushing volume, and a 28% route share. He has posted a solid 18% missed tackle rate but only 1.53 yards after contact per attempt. The Texans’ offensive line has done its part on the ground to this point, ranking 11th in yards before contact per attempt, but at this stage of his career, Chubb is more of a “get what’s blocked” type of back. This is a good matchup for Chubb to turn back the clock ever so slightly and look like his former self. Even if for just one week. The Titans have allowed the fourth-highest explosive run rate, the eighth-highest missed tackle rate, and the fourth-most rushing yards per game.
Last week, Woody Marks played a season-high 49.2% of the snaps and had a 37.2% route share. He finished with seven touches and 36 total yards. He got the only red zone carry for Houston last week. His per-touch numbers haven’t been great as he has zero explosive runs, an 8% missed tackle rate, and only 1.92 yards after contact per attempt. It’s a small 12 carry sample, so we should give the rookie some grace (for now). Marks is a viable flex this week with a nice matchup. The Titans have allowed the fourth-highest explosive run rate, the eighth-highest missed tackle rate, and the fourth-most rushing yards per game.
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.
Cam Ward is a must-sit until further notice. He is the QB36 in fantasy points per game. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 36th in yards per attempt, 32nd in passer rating, dead last in highly accurate throw rate, and 34th in catchable target rate. Ward faces a Houston pass defense that’s starting to hit their stride, allowing the 12th-lowest yards per attempt, passer rating, and success rate per dropback.
It has been a rough start to the 2025 season for Calvin Ridley. He is the WR72 in fantasy points per game. He hasn’t had more than 8.7 PPR points or 57 receiving yards in any game. His -0.051 separation score and 4.1% route win rate are absolutely horrid marks. Ridley has a 20.2% target share and 26.6% first-read share, but he has only managed 37 receiving yards per game, 1.12 yards per route run, and 0.051 first downs with that volume. Ridley is a must-sit, and he’s close to droppable at this point. We have to see a solid performance or an upward trend in his route metrics before starting him. Houston has allowed the eighth-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Last week, Christian Kirk made his 2025 debut. He had a 67.4% route share (62.1% slot) while seeing an 18.4% target share, a 29.1% air-yard share, and a 20.7% first-read share. He finished with only 25 receiving yards and 0.86 yards per route run. His 0.071 separation score and 10.7% roue win rate are decent marks, but they aren’t gonna knock you out of your seat. Kirk is a viable but not exciting flex play this week. Tennessee has given up the 14th-fewest fantasy points per game and the 11th-lowest passer rating to slot receivers.
Over the last two weeks, Elic Ayomanor has been the WR24 and WR27 in weekly PPR scoring. He has drawn a 15.5% target share, a 24.6% air-yard share, produced 47 receiving yards per game (1.74 yards per route run), and garnered a 15.6% first-read share. He had two scores and two end zone targets. Better days are ahead for Ayomanor, but this isn’t the week to drop him into a flex spot. Houston has allowed the eighth-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Chig Okonkwo is the TE19 in fantasy points per game. He was the TE8 in weekly PPR scoring last week, which honestly says more about the state of the tight end position than it does about Okonkwo. Okonkwo has a 16.2% target share, 1.50 yards per route run, and a 17.2% first-read share. He hasn’t seen a red zone target yet and has surpassed 40 receiving yards only once. Okonkwo isn’t on the streaming radar this week. Houston has allowed the ninth-fewest receiving yards and fantasy points per game to tight ends.
SEA vs. ARI | MIN vs. PIT | NO vs. BUF | TEN vs. HOU | CLE vs. DET | WAS vs. ATL | PHI vs. TB | CAR vs. NE | LAC vs. NYG | IND vs. LAR | JAC vs. SF | CHI vs. LV | BAL vs. KC | GB vs. DAL | NYJ vs. MIA | CIN vs. DEN
