Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice
Mark Andrews‘ 2025 season got off to a quiet start. He had a 59.1% route share but only had a 5.3% target share (one target) and 6.7% first-read share. Andrews could easily have a bounce-back game against Cleveland this week. During his last four regular-season meetings against this defense, he has averaged four receptions and 53.5 receiving yards with four receiving scores (he scored in three of four games). Last year, Cleveland allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game and the 11th-most receiving touchdowns to tight ends.
Last week, David Njoku had a quiet game as Harold Fannin Jr. stole the Cleveland tight end show. Njoku still had a 79.2% route share, but he only saw an 11.1% target share with 0.97 yards per route run (37 receiving yards) and an 8% first-read share. This seems to be the possible “get right” matchup for a bunch of players in this game. It could be for Njoku as well. Last year, in his only meeting with the Ravens, he secured five of his seven targets with 61 receiving yards (one score) as the TE7 for the week. Last year, Baltimore allowed the ninth-most receiving yards, the tenth-highest yards per reception, and the 12th-most fantasy points to tight ends.
Kyle Pitts had a surprising stat line in Week 1, but the matchup was in his favor. This week, not so much. Last week, Pitts was the TE7 in fantasy with an 81% route share, a 19% target share, 1.55 yards per route run, a 13.3% first-read share, and 0.132 first downs per route run. Pitts has a good history against Tampa Bay and their single high coverage (51.1% last week). This week, the matchup doesn’t look good for him. In Week 1, Minnesota utilized two high at the highest rate in the NFL (67.4%). Last year and in Week 1, Pitts wasn’t a big part of the Atlanta attack plan against two high. Last week, against two high, he had only a 10% target per route run rates and a 7.1% first-read share. Last year against that coverage shell, he had an 18% target per route run rate, 0.92 yards per route run, and a 13.4% first-read share. Minnesota was 15th in receiving yards and 17th in yards per reception allowed to tight ends. Pitts might make some starting lineups this week because of the state of the tight end position in fantasy, but I don’t project a monster game for him in Week 2.
In Week 1, Hunter Henry had a 17.4% target share, 1.83 yards per route run (66 receiving yards), a 32.1% air-yard share, and a 20% first-read share. He was the TE15 in fantasy for the week. Henry is a strong streaming option this week against a defense that allowed the 12-most receiving yards and fantasy points to tight ends last year.
Last week, Jake Ferguson had a 77.1% route share with a 17.6% target share and 22.7% first-read share while he finished with five receptions and 23 receiving yards. The usage is exactly what we wanted to see, despite the ending result not being amazing for fantasy purposes. Last week, the Giants continued their trend of single high heavy defense (eighth-highest rate, 64.9%). Last year, against single high, Ferguson had only 1.04 yards per route run and a 16.8% first-read share. Last year, the Giants also held tight ends to the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game and the fourth-fewest receiving yards. Ferguson needs a touchdown to pay off for fantasy this week, likely.
Dalton Kincaid finished as the TE4 for Week 1, but it’s all related to the touchdown he scored, and it’s false window dressing. Kincaid’s usage is still alarming to kick off the season. Last week, Kincaid had a 55.8% route share with only an 8.7% target share and 11.5% first-read share. He finished with 48 receiving yards and 1.66 yards per route run, which is good, but his usage makes even putting up a stat line like that weekly a tough bet to make. Now, he faces a Jets’ defense that allowed the sixth-lowest yards per reception and the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends last year. Sit Kincaid if possible.
Brenton Strange makes the streaming bucket for tight ends this week. Last week, he had a 60.6% route share, which, honestly, I hope we get that number to come up, but it’s workable for a streaming option. It will add to his week-to-week volatility if it doesn’t trend up, but he’s still a decent option if you’re struggling with tight end this week. In Week 1, he had a 12.9% target share, 2.95 yards per route run, and a 16% first-read share. Strange has a glorious matchup this week that should help boost his outlook. Last year, Cincy allowed the third-most receiving yards and the most fantasy points per game to tight ends. They are still struggling to defend the position in 2025, allowing the second-most receiving yards and the fourth-most fantasy points in Week 1.
What a difference a year makes. Juwan Johnson exploded in Week 1 as an integral part of the passing offense. He had a 79.6% route share with a 23.9% target share (second on the team), 1.95 yards per route run (76 receiving yards), a team-leading two red zone targets, a 28.1% first-read share (tied for the team lead), and 0.103 first downs per route run. He was the TE1 in fantasy in Week 1. I don’t think that continues obviously, but it was an awesome start for Johnson, who looks to play a big role for this team in 2025. Johnson is a strong tight end streaming option this week despite a tough matchup. He should see plenty of volume to help outkick the matchup. Last year, San Francisco allowed the eighth-fewest yards per reception and the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Is Harold Fannin Jr. 2024 Isaiah Likely? Doomed to disappoint us in fantasy after a wonderful Week 1 performance? I don’t know, to be quite honest. Ok, here’s the good. Last week, Fannin Jr. had a 20% target share, 2.17 yards per route run (63 receiving yards), and a 24% first-read share as the TE6 in fantasy. Alright, now it’s time for the negative. Fannin Jr. had only a 60.2% route share and a ridiculous 31% target per route run rate. Both of those usage metrics scream regression. It’s unlikely that he continues to see a target per route run rate that high, so unless he sees an uptick in routes, his usage is likely to come crashing back to Earth. Cleveland also utilized two tight end sets with 50.7% (second-highest in the NFL) of their offensive plays in Week 1. That’s a big difference from their 16.5% (tenth-lowest) snap usage of the same personnel grouping last season. I would sit Fannin Jr. this week to see how his usage shakes out, but I know that’s likely not the world that many people are living in after Week 1 with a BEVY of tight end injuries hitting fantasy teams. The matchup and talent are there for this usage to continue for at least one more week. Last year, Baltimore allowed the ninth-most receiving yards, the tenth-highest yards per reception, and the 12th-most fantasy points to tight ends.
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