Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice
The Dolphins were getting their butts kicked so badly in Week 1 that they pulled their starters during the fourth quarter, so it muddied their usage metrics. In the first three quarters of Week 1, Hill had a 76.2% route share, a 27.8% target share, a 48.2% air-yard share, 2.50 yards per route run, and a 30.8% first-read share. We’ll see if he can have better luck in Week 2 than his WR53 finish. His underlying metrics were strong, so I believe if Tua Tagovailoa can play better, Hill is in for a strong day. In Week 1, New England utilized single high at the highest rate in the NFL (74.4%). Last year, with Tagovailoa under center, Hill remained excellent against single high with a 34% target per route run rate, 2.72 yards per route run, and 0.168 first downs per route run. In Week 1, New England ranked 17th in PPR points per target allowed to perimeter wide receivers.
I talked about it in last week’s Primer, but Week 1 wasn’t the week to be bullish for George Pickens‘ outlook. Well, we have made it to Week 2, and it should be wheels up for Pickens. Last week, Pickens had only an 11.8% target share with 30 receiving yards (0.94 yards per route run) with a 19.4% air-yard share, and a 13.6% first-read share. Those numbers should all come up against the Giants. Last week, the Giants continued their trend of single high heavy defense (eighth-highest rate, 64.9%). Last year, against single high, Pickens had a 32% target per route run, 3.25 yards per route run, and 0.137 first downs per route run. He should cook this week. Last week, New York allowed the tenth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Hollywood Brown looks ticketed for a high-volume role until Xavier Worthy and/or Rashee Rice return. In Week 1, he had a 35.9% target share, a 36.4% air-yard share, 2.25 yards per route run, and a 40% first-read share. He was the WR9 in fantasy last week. Yes, a large chunk of his receiving yardage came on a play where the coverage was blown, allowing Brown to be wide open for a big gain. That is absolutely true, but we still can’t run away from this type of volume for any receiver. Brown is tied for the league lead in red zone targets (three). In the second half of Week 1’s game, Brown’s slot usage increased to 64%, so I think he’ll be the primary slot option again this week for Mahomes. That means Brown will have to duel with Cooper DeJean (33% catch rate and 42.4 passer rating allowed). Last year, Philly allowed the 11th-fewest PPR points per target to slot receivers. Brown will get plenty of opportunities this week to overcome a bad matchup.
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