Fantasy Football NFL Air Yards Analysis & Takeaways (Week 9)

Analyzing NFL air yards for fantasy football is a valuable exercise for prognosticating what might be coming for certain receivers. If a wide receiver saw a tremendous number of air yards but fell entirely short on receiving yards and receptions, we could make an assumption that will regress in his favor in future games. Conversely, if a player saw a huge spike in receiving yards but did not see the corresponding air yards, that could mean a tremendous number of yards after the catch, which could always vary from week to week.

Looking at a player’s intended usage and not just the surface-level outcomes is a way to more accurately value players in fantasy football. I hope you will join me every week during the regular season for our breakdown of the week that was in fantasy football air yards.

NFL Air Yards Analysis & Fantasy Football Takeaways

Below we have a chart representing air yards and receiving data courtesy of the 4for4 Air Yards App. Air yards is a tool that is now freely accessible everywhere, and you can find the site or format that works best for you.

This list represents the top 50 wide receivers from most to fewest air yards. From Rome Odunze‘s 147 air yards all the way down to Jalen Tolbert‘s 42 air yards from this past week. Also included in this list are each player’s targets, receptions, average depth of target (aDOT), target share, and share of the team’s air yards.

Showcasing all these pieces of data together provides an opportunity for a quick review of this chart and yields a significant number of takeaways after Week 8. In this weekly piece of analysis, we will dig into the four biggest things that jump out to me from this week’s dataset.

Week 8 Air Yards and Air Yards% Data

Top Takeaways From Week 8 Air Yards Data

Troy Franklin‘s Breakout

It may surprise you to learn that Troy Franklin is in the top 15 wide receivers in both air yards and receiving yards this season. Teammate Courtland Sutton is as well, and the Broncos host two of the top 25 in those groups because Denver has passed 59% of the time through the last three games. Bo Nix has shaken off his early-season rust and is carving up the league again. We knew Sutton would be good, but after last week, Troy Franklin has entered the picture as a valuable weapon.

Franklin was seventh in air yards in Week 8, which led to six receptions for 89 yards and two touchdowns. That only makes four scores on the year, but Franklin’s target share is increasing as the season goes along. He has averaged 7.3 targets per game in the last three, but perhaps the reason Franklin can be most valuable is in the red zone area. With 11 targets there, he is third among all wide receivers and fifth in red zone target share (32.4%).

Ja’Marr Chase Looking Like 2021 Cooper Kupp

In 2021, Cooper Kupp was first among wide receivers in targets, target share, receptions, receiving yards, and yards after the catch. He was also first in red zone targets and first in fantasy points per game. However, his average depth of target (aDOT) was just 8.3 yards, which ranked 73rd among all wide receivers. He did so much damage after the catch, and the Los Angeles Rams knew exactly how to use him in that type of formation and short-passing route tree.

Fast forward to this season, and Ja’Marr Chase is first in targets, receptions, and yards after the catch. He is second in receiving yards, red zone targets, and target share. Yet, he is just 81st in aDOT (8.1 yards). He is getting so many targets from Joe Flacco, but they are such short, designed targets where Chase can turn on the afterburners and beat people with his speed. If Chase is going to lap the field in targets and yards after the catch, he will have one of those outlier seasons (like Kupp in 2021) where a mediocre air yards number just doesn’t matter.

Tyler Shough is Going to Chuck It

I have no idea if Tyler Shough is going to be a good quarterback (he probably won’t), but one thing is for sure. He is going to be chucking the ball. With Shough and Rattler splitting time last week, the New Orleans Saints attempted 51 passes (and somehow scored just three points). Of those 51 passes, 24 of them went to Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed. Juwan Johnson got eight, and then there were a bunch of low numbers.

This is why both Olave and Shaheed are top 15 in the NFL in total air yards. However, in the 16 combined games they have played together, those two receivers have scored just five touchdowns. Two of those five came in one game from Chris Olave. Still, in this game, volume matters. Even if the throws are inaccurate or not in the red zone, a large amount of volume can cover up those flaws, and that’s exactly what Olave and Shaheed are doing.

Pick Up Elic Ayomanor (And Maybe Chimere Dike)

Perhaps I could just copy and paste what I wrote above about Tyler Shough over to Cam Ward. He is inaccurate. He doesn’t look ready. The Titans’ offense has immense trouble scoring touchdowns. Still, with Calvin Ridley out, two other wide receivers are starting to emerge as sleeper PPR plays. Elic Ayomanor (especially) and Chimere Dike both had eight targets last week, but different stories when it comes to air yards.

Ayomanor had the fifth-most air yards on the week, but could only catch four passes for 52 yards. Dike had 65 air yards, but caught seven of his passes for 93 yards. Dike appears to be the better short-field threat, but Ayomanor is more explosive and likely to break a big play. This can matter depending on what you need for your roster. With Tyler Lockett (signed with another team) and Calvin Ridley (injury, and possible trade) out, this is going to become the Ayomanor and Dike show, which could emerge as a duo that is successful for a long time.