Pat Fitzmaurice | Thu, Oct 30th 2025, 7:48am EDT

Fantasy Football Roundtable: Second-Half Breakouts, Busts & Bounce-Back Players

We’re approximately halfway through the 2025 fantasy football season. We’ve had no shortage of breakouts, busts, heart-warming surprises and soul-crushing injuries. But now it’s time to look ahead and offer educated guesses about what we’ll see in the second half of the season.

In this midseason roundtable, Derek Brown, Andrew Erickson and Pat Fitzmaurice make some predictions about the stretch run.

Fantasy Football Roundtable

Fantasy Football Breakouts

Name a player you expect to break out over the second half of the fantasy season and explain why you think a breakout is coming.

Derek Brown: I know this will likely end up in pain, but I won’t let my predraft love of Jaylin Noel perish in the Nick Caley flames.

Christian Kirk‘s return from injury and Caley’s determination to hold Houston’s talented rookie wide receiver back could sink the second half of Noel’s rookie season, but I’m betting on talent winning out and Kirk’s health not complying.

Over the last two games, we have seen why Noel could easily break out if unleashed in a full-time role. Since Week 7, Noel has had a 30% target per route run rate, 3.18 yards per route run and 0.159 first downs per route run, per Fantasy Points Data. If Noel gets a full-time snapshare, the rest, as they say, will take care of itself.

Andrew Erickson: Who breaks out in the second half of seasons? Rookies. And which rookie running back has yet to fire this season? Bhayshul Tuten.

Rookies often see major bumps in usage following their bye weeks, so I’d expect Tuten to see a larger role alongside Travis Etienne. Tuten has also been battling a shoulder injury, which might have been the reason his touch counts were limited to start the year.

Etienne is no stranger to fading in the second halves of seasons, which I why I think you NEED to have Tuten on your roster for the stretch run. He played 28% of the snaps back in Week 7, which was a season high.

Could this year’s second-half breakout running back be on a Liam Coen-coached offense two years in a row? You bet.

Pat Fitzmaurice: I’m clinging to my priors with TreVeyon Henderson.

It’s been maddening that the second-round rookie has been unable to get a foothold in the Patriots’ offense. It’s also maddening that when the Patriots do use Henderson, offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels often slams the rookie between the tackles, even though Henderson is at his best on outside runs and screens. Henderson played only 14 snaps in Week 8, but he finally got to run wide on a few plays and responded with 10 carries for 75 yards.

I think it’s only a matter of time before the Patriots lean into Henderson’s talent, and it’s possible that fumble-prone Rhamondre Stevenson eventually forces the Patriots’ hand. Henderson investors just have to hope that rumors about the Patriots acquiring a running back before the NFL trade deadline are mere smoke.

Fantasy Football Busts

How about a potential second-half bust? Which player is riding high now but could come crashing down to earth?

Derek Brown: I know I’m looking ahead a lot here, but after Week 11, if you’re now leaning on Oronde Gadsden II as your starting tight end, you might need to consider trading him away.

Defensive injuries could shift this by the time we get to that point in the season, but Gadsden’s schedule for the fantasy playoffs is horrifying. In Weeks 14-17, Gadsden plays the Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys and Texans. Three of those four opponents (Eagles, Chiefs, Texans) sit inside the bottom 12 of schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends.

Gadsden could help you get over the hump and secure a fantasy playoff spot, but he could also be your undoing in the playoffs.

Andrew Erickson: Correlating my breakouts and busts: Travis Etienne.

The Jaguars’ No. 1 RB was bottled up for the third straight game versus the Rams in Week 7, with eight carries for 44 yards on just 54% of the snaps. Etienne has averaged fewer than seven fantasy points per game in his last three starts.

I’ve discussed his recent drop-off in efficiency, his tough schedule and the potential for a healthy Bhayshul Tuten to seize a larger role for the second half of the season. Tuten has been on injury reports with a shoulder all year — an issue that might not hinder him from the Jaguars’ bye week. The Jags’ schedule doesn’t get much easier after the bye with the Raiders and Texans in the next month, who rank above average in run defense DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) this season.

Pat Fitzmaurice: Jaxson Dart has been terrific over his first five NFL starts. A natural playmaker, Dart is destined to be a top-12 quarterback in 2026 fantasy drafts, and deservedly so. But nearly 40% of Dart’s fantasy points have come from his running, and I’m not sure that’s a sustainable business model.

The season-ending knee injury to Malik Nabers has left Dart with a substandard group of pass-catchers, and last week’s season-ending Cam Skattebo injury further depletes Dart’s supporting cast. And with the Giants sitting at 2-6, the team may shut down Dart before Week 18 to protect their investment for 2026.

If Dart is your primary fantasy quarterback, you should probably hatch a backup plan.

Fantasy Football Bounce-Backs

Who’s due for a bounce-back? Which first-half disappointment has better things ahead in the second half of the season?

Derek Brown: If — and I know it’s a big “if”— Brian Thomas Jr. comes out of the bye reasonably healthy or his health can improve by Week 13, he could have a monstrous finish to the 2025 season.

In Weeks 13-18, outside of Denver, Thomas has an immaculate schedule. He faces the Titans and Colts twice while also battling with the Jets once. All three of those teams reside inside the top 12 for most PPR points per target allowed to perimeter wide receivers since Week 4, per Fantasy Points Data.

There’s a lot of risk here, but the payoff could also be there in the end with Thomas.

Andrew Erickson: Jauan Jennings. The veteran 49ers receiver has battled through injuries and Mac Jones at quarterback. But Jennings is getting healthier, and Brock Purdy is coming back in Week 9.

Jennings has commanded seven or more targets in back-to-back weeks (25% target share) and dropped what could have been a long touchdown last week. Jennings has scored the fourth-fewest fantasy points versus expectation (-3.0 fantasy points per game).

I think we see some positive regression in Jennings’ future as his health improves (more than the other 49ers receivers) and when he gets his quarterback back under center.

Pat Fitzmaurice: Nico Collins is way too good to be WR30 in PPR fantasy points per game.

Part of the problem is that Collins hasn’t been as efficient as he was in recent years. He averaged 11.9 yards per target in 2023 and 10.2 yards per target in 2025, but he’s averaging 7.4 yards per target this season.

Collins has a tough Week 9 matchup against Denver, although the Broncos are expected to be without injured cornerback Patrick Surtain II, one of the best cover men in the league. After that, Collins has a favorable stretch of schedule in which he’ll face the Jaguars, Titans, Bills and Colts. I’m expecting a much better second half of the season for Collins.

Fantasy Football League-Winners

Which player will prove to be the league winner of 2025? Who will end up bringing home trophies for investors?

Derek Brown: I could easily put Jonathan Taylor or Christian McCaffrey here, but I’ll go off the page a bit and take Rashee Rice.

Since his return, Rice has been the WR1 in PPR fantasy points per game with 24.4. He’s had a wondrous 26.1% target share with 2.93 yards per route run and a 31.4% first-read share, per Fantasy Points Data.

The patience fantasy managers had to muster while waiting for Rice to return from suspension could pay off handsomely with fantasy trophies aplenty.

Andrew Erickson: If we see an injury in the Seahawks or Broncos backfields, it’s easy to see the last remaining running back emerge as a league winner. But my league-winner is Steelers back Jaylen Warren.

I so badly wanted this pick to be Kaleb Johnson, but Warren has been balling out this season. The schedule is excellent the rest of the way. Warren ranks in the top 10 in rushing success rate, fifth in Pro Football Focus (PFF) grade and 13th in yards after contact per attempt this season.

I’ve always liked Warren since he first entered the NFL, but I wrote him off after the Steelers drafted Johnson in the third round. I want to make amends for my mistake by going after Warren aggressively in trades before Week 9. He is the RB15 in expected fantasy points per game without a rushing touchdown and just one receiving score this season.

Pat Fitzmaurice: Jonathan Taylor has put fantasy teams on his back over the first eight weeks, but Christian McCaffrey has been a monster, too. He is averaging 24.6 PPR fantasy points per game, and before a hiccup in Week 8, McCaffrey had put up at least 22.7 points in every game.

If McCaffrey can continue to appease the injury gods and stay on the field, he’ll have a favorable playoff schedule in Weeks 15-17 with the Titans at home, the Colts on the road and the Bears at home. McCaffrey is poised to go bonkers down the stretch.

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