Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice
Start’em
Last week, Bill SMASHED as the RB5 in fantasy with 16 touches and 150 total yards (two scores) as the RB5 for the week. He played a season-high 50.9% of snaps with 14 of 20 running back carries, a 31.3% route share (season-high), and a 7.7% target share (season-high). Among 47 qualifying backs, Bill ranks second in explosive run rate and third in yards after contact per attempt. SZN of Bill looked to be on hold, but we are so back! He should rip the Bears’ run defense in half this week. Chicago has allowed the second-most rushing yards per game, the fifth-highest explosive run rate, and the highest missed tackle rate. Smash Bill. Smash.
Last week, Michael Carter took over the workhorse role for Arizona with 57.4% of the snaps with 23 touches and 73 total yards as the RB8 for the week. He had 18 of the 25 running back carries and a 35.1% route share (15.6% target share). He wasn’t very efficient with an 11% missed tackle rate and 1.26 yards after contact per attempt, but as we always say, “volume is king in fantasy.” Carter did split the red zone carries (two apiece) with Bam Knight. He looks in line for another solid day in Week 6. The Colts have allowed the 11th-highest explosive run rate, the fifth-highest yards before contact per attempt, and the 11th-highest success rate to gap runs (Carter 73.7% gap).
I’m approaching this week as if Bucky Iriving (DNP Wednesday) will be out and Rachaad White will remain the team’s workhorse back. If we get different news by Friday, I’ll update the Primer to reflect the news. Last week, White took over as the team’s bellcow with an 80% snap rate, 18 touches, and 71 total yards. White had a 55.3% route share and 12.1% target share as the RB7 for the week. He has a 16% missed tackle rate and 1.86 yards after contact per attempt this season. White should have another strong day against a run defense that has allowed the sixth-highest missed tackle rate, the tenth-highest yards before contact per attempt, the 14th-highest success rate to gap runs (White 54.1% gap), and has the ninth-lowest stuff rate.
Last week, with Tyjae Spears back, Tony Pollard remained the clear lead back for Tennessee with a 58.3% snap rate, 14 of 19 running back carries, and a 54.8% route share (7.7% target share). He finished with 17 touches and 78 total yards. Pollard is the RB29 in fantasy points per game, averaging 18.2 touches and 78.8 total yards. His passing game usage has increased over the last three games with at least three targets, two receptions, and 11 receiving yards in each game. Among 47 qualifying backs, Pollard ranks 16th in yards after contact per attempt. Pollard should have another solid outing this week against a Raiders’ run defense that has allowed the 12th-highest missed tackle rate, the tenth-highest yards before contact per attempt, and the 13th-highest success rate to gap runs (Pollard 52.4% gap).
D’Andre Swift has been a snooze-worthy volume-based RB2 this season (RB24). Swift is 14th in snap share, ninth in opportunity share, 20th in weighted opportunities, and 14th in targets among running backs. Among 47 qualifying backs, he ranks 39th in explosive run rate and 42nd in yards after contact per attempt. He has averaged 17.3 touches and 68.1 total yards. Washington is a middle-of-the-road run defense, ranking 16th in rushing yards per game, 14th in yards after contact per attempt, and allowing the tenth-lowest rushing success rate. Swift is a solid volume bet again this week, but there’s not much chance of a ceiling performance.
Sit’em
Last week, Chase Brown played only 53.2% of the snaps, finishing with 15 touches and 48 total yards. He finished with only a 50% rushing share with a 42.2% route share (20% target share). The route share was fine and in line with his season-long norms, but the rushing share was only the second time this season that he dropped below 66.7%. Brown has been nearly unplayable this season. He has zero explosive runs, a 12% missed tackle rate, and only 1.94 yards after contact per attempt. It’s tough at this point to feel ok even plugging him in as a flex. Green Bay has allowed the third-lowest explosive run rate, the second-fewest rushing yards per game, and the fifth-fewest yards after contact per attempt.
Since his return, Zach Charbonnet has been the RB29 in fantasy points per game, averaging 12 touches and 46 total yards. He’s been productive as the team’s goal line back with scores in both games. Since Week 4, he has seven red zone carries to Kenneth Walker’s four. Charbonnet has had 21 of the 50 running back carries, a 50.8% snap share, a 43.8% route share, and a 6.7% target share. He hasn’t been an efficient player, with only an 8% missed tackle rate and 1.94 yards after contact per attempt. Charbonnet remains a touchdown-dependent flex this week with a bad matchup. Jacksonville has allowed the 11th-fewest rushing yards per game, the fourth-lowest missed tackle rate, and the third-fewest yards after contact per attempt.
Kareem Hunt has been and continues to be a touchdown-dependent flex play. He is averaging only 9.8 touches and 41.6 total yards, but he has been the Chiefs’ preferred red zone back. Hunt has ten red zone rushing attempts while Isiah Pacheco has only four. Hunt has been an inefficient runner with only a 9% missed tackle rate and 2.23 yards after contact per attempt. He’ll have to live off his touchdown equity again this week. The Lions have allowed the seventh-lowest explosive run rate and rushing yards per game, and the sixth-lowest missed tackle rate and yards after contact per attempt. If Hunt doesn’t score this week, you’ll likely be sad that you played him.
Isiah Pacheco has been barely playable this season as the RB46 in fantasy points per game. He has averaged only 9.6 touches per game with 41.8 total yards. Kareem Hunt has dwarfed him in red zone usage with ten carries inside the 20-yard line to Pacheco’s four. It’s not like Pacheco has run well, either, with only a 13% missed tackle rate and 2.44 yards after contact per attempt. Detroit will shut him down again this week. The Lions have allowed the seventh-lowest explosive run rate and rushing yards per game, and the sixth-lowest missed tackle rate and yards after contact per attempt.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Last week, with Omarion Hampton sidelined, Hassan Haskins split up the work with Kimani Vidal. In the fourth quarter, he had a 40% snap rate, three of six running back carries, a 35.7% route share, and one target. Vidal had the same number of carries, routes, and targets. This backfield looks like a muddled mess. I think it’ll be a hot hand situation with Haskins likely getting the first crack at the job. I just don’t have a lot of faith that Haskins can hold off Vidal. Haskins has only 2.54 yards after contact with his 65 career carries and only two runs of 10-plus yards. The matchup is wonderful this week, so maybe if Haskins gets the first chance, he can run away with the work for the week. Miami has allowed the most rushing yards per game, the highest explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt, and the eighth-highest missed tackle rate.
Last week, with Omarion Hampton sidelined, Hassan Haskins split up the work with Kimani Vidal. In the fourth quarter, he had a 60% snap rate, three of six running back carries, a 35.7% route share, and one target. Haskins had the same number of carries, routes, and targets. I think it’ll be a hot hand situation with Haskins likely getting the first crack at the job. I just don’t have a lot of faith that Haskins can hold off Vidal. Haskins has only 2.54 yards after contact with his 65 career carries and only two runs of 10-plus yards. With 47 career carries, Vidal has 2.83 yards after contact per attempt, three runs of at least ten yards, and eight missed tackles forced (17%). If Vidal can get a chance this week, he could put some distance between himself and Haskins moving forward. The matchup is wonderful. Miami has allowed the most rushing yards per game, the highest explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt, and the eighth-highest missed tackle rate.
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