Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice
Start’em
Quentin Johnston is the WR9 in fantasy points per game as he continues his monstrous breakout season. He has a 22% target share with 75.4 receiving yards per game (2.07 yards per route run) and a 26.4% first-read share. Johnston ranks sixth in deep targets and 14th in red zone targets among wide receivers. Miami has the sixth-highest two high rate (60.4%). Against two high, Johnston has seen his target share dip to 17.3% with 1.44 yards per route run and a 22.7% first-read share. The coverage matchup doesn’t swing in Johnston’s favor, but if Herbert is looking to attack a pass defense that has allowed the highest deep ball completion rate and the sixth-highest passer rating downfield, Johnston should be the tip of the spear. He leads the team in deep targets. Miami has also allowed the ninth-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Since Week 4, Stefon Diggs has been awesome. He has had a 67.2% route share, a 39.6% target share, 123.5 receiving yards per game (6.33 yards per route run), and a 44.4% first-read share. He has three red zone targets across his last two games. During this stretch of games, among 110 qualifying wide receivers, Diggs ranks fourth in separation and 15th in route win rate. Diggs should be in your lineups this week. He’s primed to keep the fantasy points train rolling down the tracks this week. New Orleans has allowed the second-most PPR points per target and the tenth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Keenan Allen is the WR15 in fantasy points per game, ranking fourth in red zone targets among wide receivers. He has finished as a top 20 wide receiver in three of five games in weekly scoring. Allen has a 23.1% target share, 1.84 yards per route run, and a 24% first-read share. Miami has the sixth-highest two high rate (60.4%). Against two high, Allen has led the way with a 25.3% target share, 1.86 yards per route run, and a 27.3% first-read share (tied for the team lead). Allen also ranks second on the team in deep targets. Miami has allowed the highest deep ball completion rate and the sixth-highest passer rating downfield. Allen should crush this week against a secondary that has allowed the ninth-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Since his return to the lineup, Xavier Worthy has been the WR24 in fantasy points per game. He has seen a 21.8% target share with a 40.4% air-yard share with 62.5 receiving yards per game (2.02 yards per route run) and a 25.5% first-read share. Worthy has three end zone targets in his last two games while leading the team with six deep targets. Worthy should smash this week against a banged-up secondary that was already allowing the tenth-most PPR points per target and the fifth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Detroit has also allowed the third-most deep passing yards per game while ranking 17th in deep completion rate.
Last week, McConkey recorded his second top-24 finish of the season in weekly scoring (WR20). He has three red zone targets in his last three games. Overall, he has had an 18.7% target share with 1.15 yards per route run and a 22.5% first-read share. Miami has the sixth-highest two high rate (60.4%). Against two high, McConkey is second on the team with a 20% target share, 1.37 yards per route run, and a 27.3% first-read share (tied for the team lead). Keenan Allen and McConkey should lead the way for Herbert this week. Miami has allowed the fifth-most PPR points per target and the second-highest passer rating when targeted to slot receivers (McConkey 61.6% slot).
Sit’em
Jameson Williams has been incredibly disappointing this season. We heard all the hype all offseason about the growth of his role and skillset, yet he’s just been Detroit’s field stretcher again this season. Williams is the WR63 in fantasy points per game, with 40% of his target volume coming via deep shots (he leads Detroit in deep targets). This isn’t the matchup to covet Williams’ role in the offense. Kansas City has allowed the sixth-fewest deep passing yards per game, the seventh-lowest deep completion rate, and the lowest deep passer rating. Even if you don’t believe me with that angle, then let’s talk about the coverage matchup. Kansas City has the third-highest two high rate (62.4%). Against two high, Williams has only an 8.8% target share, 1.32 yards per route run, and an 11.4% first-read share. Sit Williams this week.
Tee Higgins is the WR59 in fantasy points per game with two top-36 weekly finishes (WR28, WR35). He has four red zone targets across his last four games. He has a 16.9% target share, 0.99 yards per route run (31.6 receiving yards per game), and a 24.1% first-read share. Higgins is a dice roll flex play with limited upside and a bad matchup. The Packers have allowed the tenth-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Chris Godwin has finished as the WR65 in weekly scoring in each of his games this season. He’s still trying to find his former effectiveness as he returns from a major injury. Godwin has a 19.2% target share, 26 receiving yards per game (0.81 yards per route run), and a 20% first-read share. He has two deep targets and one red zone target. He’s a low-end flex this week with a horrible matchup. The 49ers have allowed the fourth-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
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