Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice
Start’em
J.K. Dobbins remains the early down hammer for the Denver offense with little passing game utility. He has only one target in five of his last six games. Dobbins is the RB24 in fantasy points per game, averaging 16.1 touches and 78.3 total yards. Among 62 qualifying backs, he ranks second in explosive run rate and 20th in missed tackle rate. Dobbins is 19th in red zone rushing attempts and tied for 18th in rushing attempts inside the ten-yard line. He should find more success on the ground this week. Since Week 5, they haven’t given up a ton of huge plays to rushing attacks, but they have allowed the 13th-highest success rate, the eighth-highest missed tackle rate, and the 12th-highest yards after contact per attempt.
I don’t know if it’s a one-week fluke or a sign of things to come, but last week Kenneth Walker finally got the red zone work over Zach Charbonnet and led the way with a 56.9% snap share. Walker had a 54.2% red zone snap share (Charbonnet, 37.5%) and had all three of the team’s red zone rushing attempts. We’ll see if it continues, but it was nice to see. Since Week 4, Walker has averaged 14.4 touches and 72 total yards. He still is crushing Zach Charbonnet in per-touch efficiency. Among 62 qualifying backs, Walker ranks seventh in explosive run rates and sixth in missed tackles forced per attempt. This week, he gets to face an Arizona run defense that, since Week 5, has allowed the eighth-highest explosive run rate, the fourth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and has had the lowest stuff rate.
We’ll see if this usage pattern holds, but last week Zach Charbonnet didn’t lead the team in snapshare for the backfield overall (35.3%) or in the red zone (35.4%). Kenneth Walker had all three of the team’s red zone rushing attempts. Since Week 4, Charbonnet has averaged 12 touches and 46 total yards. Charbonnet has had only a 14% missed tackle rate and 2.06 yards after contact per attempt this season. Neither of those numbers will blow your socks off. He’s a flex play with a good matchup this week. This week, he gets to face an Arizona run defense that, since Week 5, has allowed the eighth-highest explosive run rate, the fourth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and has had the lowest stuff rate.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Since Week 6, Kimani Vidal has been the RB19 in fantasy points per game with 17.5 touches and 82.6 total yards per game. Among 62 qualifying backs, he ranks sixth in explosive run rate and 20th in yards after contact per attempt. This week, he faces a Pittsburgh run defense that, since Week 5, has allowed the 14th-lowest explosive run rate, the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game, and ranked 17th in missed tackle rate. During the same span, the Steelers have also had the sixth-lowest stuff rate and allowed the tenth-most yards after contact per attempt. They are all over the map with analytical markers, so there’s a path for Vidal to have a solid game this week, but behind the Bolts’ beat-up offensive line, I don’t know if they’ll be able to clear the way for him consistently, but I could be wrong.
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Last week, Devin Singletary surprisingly led the Giants’ backfield with a 55.4% snap rate, ten touches, and 51 total yards. He had eight of 13 running back rushing attempts, their only red zone rushing attempt, and a 35.9% route share (6.1% target share). Singletary hasn’t been amazing on a per-touch basis this season, but he has been better than Tyrone Tracy Jr. with a 14% missed tackle rate and 2.14 yards after contact per attempt. This week, he’ll be a low-end flex against an improved Chicago run defense. Since Week 5, Chicago has allowed the 11th-fewest rushing yards per game, the lowest yards after contact per attempt, and the eighth-lowest missed tackle rate.
Sadly, we were all wrong about Tyrone Tracy Jr. With Cam Skattego going down, Tracy was expected to inherit the everydown role again, but Devin Singletary outpaced him last week. Last week, Tracy had a 44.6% snap rate, five of 13 running back rushing attempts, a 46.2% route share (12.1% target share). He finished with eight touches and 37 total yards. I expect the backfield split to continue. Tracy hasn’t been impressive this season on a per-touch basis with a 10% missed tackle rate and only 2.08 yards after contact per attempt. This week, he’ll be a low-end flex against an improved Chicago run defense. Since Week 5, Chicago has allowed the 11th-fewest rushing yards per game, the lowest yards after contact per attempt, and the eighth-lowest missed tackle rate.
Sit’em
The stink of the Saints’ offense has crushed Alvin Kamara. Since Week 5, he has averaged 11.2 touches and 44.4 total yards as the RB43 in fantasy points per game. He hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 1. He has played 51.4-62.5% of the offensive snaps in four of his past five games. His per-touch efficiency remains bottom-of-the-barrel with only a 14% missed tackle rate and 1.69 yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 5, Carolina has allowed the tenth-fewest rushing yards per game, the 13th-fewest yards after contact per attempt, and the fourth-lowest success rate. Sit Kamara.
Bill’s season has been wrecked with the Commanders falling apart. Their defense hasn’t been good enough to put them in a ton of positive game scripts, and he hasn’t had enough of a passing game role to save him in fantasy. He hasn’t had more than two targets in any game this season. Since Week 6, Bill has averaged 13.6 touches and 41.6 total yards. He hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 5. Since Week 6, his efficiency stats have also tanked with zero explosive runs, a 12% missed tackle rate, and only 2.12 yards after contact per attempt. His offensive line hasn’t done him any favors with only 0.96 yards before contact per attempt during that stretch. He’s a sit again this week. Since Week 5, Detroit has allowed the ninth-fewest rushing yards per game, the sixth-lowest explosive run rate, and the fifth-fewest yards after contact per attempt.
Last week, Emari Demercado led the way on the ground for Arizona with 14 of 23 running back rushing attempts. He had two of the five running back red zone rushing attempts while playing 40% of the snaps with an 18.9% route share (3.2% target share). Demercado finished with 15 touches and 78 total yards. He has a 13.6% explosive run rate but only a 9% missed tackle rate and 2.09 yards after contact per attempt. This isn’t the week to look to his backfield for a flex play. Since Week 5, Seattle has remained an elite run defense, giving up the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game, the second-lowest explosive run rate, the fifth-lowest missed tackle rate, and the third-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Sit Demercado.
Last week, Zonovan Knight led the backfield with a 56.9% snap rate, three red zone rushing attempts, and a 45.9% route share (6.5% target share). He finished with only 11 touches and 47 total yards. Knight hasn’t been good on a per-touch basis with a 5% missed tackle rate and 1.58 yards after contact per attempt. This isn’t the week to look to his backfield for a flex play. Since Week 5, Seattle has remained an elite run defense, giving up the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game, the second-lowest explosive run rate, the fifth-lowest missed tackle rate, and the third-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Sit Knight.
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