Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice
Start’em
Woody Marks has fully taken over the Houston backfield. Across the last two games, he has had all seven of the team’s red zone rushing attempts while playing 72.3 % of the snaps with a 37.5% route share (4.7% target share), 17.5 touches per game, and 66 total yards per game. Marks has been a top-20 back in weekly scoring in three of his last five games (RB16, RB15, RB11). He hasn’t been impressive on a per-touch basis, ranking 24th in explosive run rate and 33rd in yards after contact per attempt (among 54 qualifying backs). He should have a strong showing this week against the Bills’ Swiss cheese run defense. Since Week 7, they have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game, the highest missed tackle rate, and the second-highest yards after contact per attempt.
David Montgomery is the RB25 in fantasy points per game, averaging 12.5 touches and 60.9 total yards. Montgomery is an RB2/3 that is highly touchdown dependent. He’s run dry with touchdowns, with only one in his last five games. Montgomery ranks 19th in red zone touches among backs. Among 54 qualifying backs, Montgomery ranks 32nd in explosive run rate and 18th in yards after contact per attempt. Montgomery is a good spot for his early down role this week. Since Week 7, the Giants have continued to field one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, allowing the second-most rushing yards per game, the highest explosive run rate, the third-highest missed tackle rate, and the fourth-most yards after contact per attempt.
In Week 10, Kamara had a 64.2% snap share with a 48.4% route share (10.7% target share), 25 touches, and 115 total yards. He handled both of the team’s red zone carries. It was his highest touch count since Week 2. Kamara is still searching for his second touchdown of the season. His 3.1% explosive run rate and 1.72 yards after contact per attempt are basement-level per-touch metrics, but his 16% missed tackle rate is respectable. Kamara has a nice matchup this week where he could continue to build upon his last game and hopefully get into the endzone. Since Week 7, Atlanta has allowed the third-most rushing yards per game, the tenth-highest yards before contact per attempt, the eighth-highest rushing success rate, and had the sixth-lowest stuff rate.
We still have to see if Josh Jacobs will play this week, as the team is listing him as day-to-day with a knee injury. If Jacobs can’t go this week, Wilson would be the team’s every-down back. Last week, after Jacobs left the game, Wilson played 94% of the snaps with all of the rushing work and a 73% route share. Wilson hasn’t been a special player this season on a per-touch basis, with only a 1.9% explosive run rate, a 4% missed tackle rate, and 2.02 yards after contact per attempt. Wilson would be a volume-driven RB2, though. Since Week 7, Minnesota has allowed the 13th-most rushing yards per game, the 11th-highest rushing success rate, and had the 11th-lowest stuff rate.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Last week was what I had been hoping for, Kenneth Walker, all season. He finished with 19 touches and 111 total yards as the RB9 for the week. Walker got his first touchdown since Week 3 in the process. Let’s have a real conversation, though. It still wasn’t great. Walker still only had one red zone rushing attempt, while George Holani (two) and Zach Charbonnet (three) had more work inside the 20-yard line. Walker remains a volatile player. It’s not because of talent, but related to his usage still. Since Week 9, he has taken over more of the backfield, though, averaging 15.7 touches and 80.7 total yards with a 48.4% snap rate, a 39% route share, and a 7.5% target share. Since Week 9, he has had more red zone carries (eight) than Charbonnet (seven). Among 54 qualifying backs, Walker ranks fifth in explosive run rate and missed tackle rate. This week’s matchup might not be as great as it seems at first glance. Since Week 7, Tennessee has allowed the eighth-most rushing yards per game, the ninth-highest explosive run rate, and the seventh-most yards before contact per attempt. If we zoom in further, it isn’t amazing, though. I know it’s a small sample, but I have to bring it up. Since Week 9, with Jeffery Simmons (returned in Week 11) and T’Vondre Sweat (returned in Week 7) back, Tennessee has allowed the 11th-fewest rushing yards per game, the third-lowest explosive run rate, zero missed tackles, and the tenth-fewest yards after contact per attempt. We’ll see if Tennessee’s run defense is as improved as I fear this week. If not, Walker should chew them up. If they have truly gotten better, it could be a disappointing showing.
Since Week 9, Zach Charbonnet has averaged 12 touches and 58.6 total yards as he’s taken a step back in the backfield pecking order. He has had a 40.3% snap share, which is less than Kenneth Walker’s, while also having a 25.6% route share and 3.8% target share (both less than Walker’s). During that span, Walker has had eight red zone rushing attempts, and Charbonnet has logged seven. Last week, Charbonnet had three carries inside the 20-yard line while Walker had only one, so this does remain somewhat of a fluid situation. George Holani has also gotten into the red zone mix, as he had two carries in the red zone last week. Among 54 qualifying backs, Charbonnet ranks 20th in missed tackle rate and yards after contact per attempt. This week’s matchup might not be as great as it seems at first glance. Since Week 7, Tennessee has allowed the eighth-most rushing yards per game, the ninth-highest explosive run rate, and the seventh-most yards before contact per attempt. If we zoom in further, it isn’t amazing, though. I know it’s a small sample, but I have to bring it up. Since Week 9, with Jeffery Simmons (returned in Week 11) and T’Vondre Sweat (returned in Week 7) back, Tennessee has allowed the 11th-fewest rushing yards per game, the third-lowest explosive run rate, zero missed tackles, and the tenth-fewest yards after contact per attempt. We’ll see if Tennessee’s run defense is as improved as I fear this week. If not, Charbonnet should have a solid game. If they have truly gotten better, it could be a disappointing showing.
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Tyrone Tracy Jr. has been handling the heavy lifting for the Giants’ run game over the last two games, but he has almost zero touchdown equity. Across the last two games, he has averaged a 59.3% snap rate, 19 touches, and 105 total yards, but he has only two red zone rushing attempts, as Devin Singletary has handled 12. Tracy will likely rack up volume again this week, but he won’t sniff a score unless he manages a long run. Among 54 qualifying backs, he ranks 33rd in explosive run rate and 30th in yards after contact per attempt. Tracy is a volume-driven middling flex play this week. Since Week 7, Detroit has allowed the ninth-lowest explosive run rate, the 13th-fewest rushing yards per game, and the lowest yards after contact per attempt.
Last week, Isiah Pacheco didn’t practice at all. He opened this week with a full practice. We’ll have to see if he is back this week. Over the last two games, Hunt has been the Chiefs’ bellcow, playing 79.2% of the snaps with only 13 touches and 59.5 total yards per game as the RB16 and RB21 in weekly scoring. Hunt is a volume play that you hope gets into the endzone. Among 54 qualifying backs, he ranks 33rd in missed tackles forced per attempt and 25th in yards after contact per attempt. The Colts remain a tough run defense to face. Since Week 7, they have allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game, the fourth-lowest explosive run rate, and the sixth-fewest yards after contact per attempt.
Aaron Jones has taken over the Minnesota backfield over the last two games with a 69.2% snap rate while averaging 15.5 touches and 75 total yards. Jones’ per-touch numbers won’t jump off the page with his 3.8% explosive run rate, 6% missed tackle rate, and 1.71 yards after contact per attempt, but he’s a volume play again this week. His former team will make him earn every blade of grass this week. Since Week 7, Green Bay has allowed the tenth-lowest explosive run rate, the third-lowest missed tackle rate, and the fourth-fewest yards after contact per attempt.
Sit’em
Since Week 6, Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears have split the work evenly. Since Week 6, Pollard has averaged 12 touches and 51 total yards with a 50.7% snap rate, a 31.8% route share, an 8.9% target share, and five red zone rushing attempts. Pollard hasn’t exactly been efficient with his workload this season, with only a 2.3% explosive run rate, a 12% missed tackle rate, and 2.38 yards after contact per attempt. Pollard is an uninspiring flex this week. Since Week 7, Seattle’s run defense has fallen off and become an average unit, ranking 15th in rushing success rate allowed and missed tackle rate, and 17th in rushing yards per game permitted.
Since Week 6, Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears have split the work evenly. Since Week 6, Spears has averaged 9.6 touches and 53.6 total yards per game with a 50.4% snap rate, a 42.6% route share, an 11.3% target share, and four red zone rushing attempts. Spears has had only a 2.9% explosive run rate, a 12% missed tackle rate, and 2.29 yards after contact this season. Spears is an uninspiring flex this week. Since Week 7, Seattle’s run defense has fallen off and become an average unit, ranking 15th in rushing success rate allowed and missed tackle rate, and 17th in rushing yards per game permitted.
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