Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice
Start’em
David Montgomery is the RB25 in fantasy points per game, averaging 12.5 touches and 60.9 total yards. Montgomery is an RB2/3 that is highly touchdown dependent. He’s run dry with touchdowns, with only one in his last five games. Montgomery ranks 19th in red zone touches among backs. Among 54 qualifying backs, Montgomery ranks 32nd in explosive run rate and 18th in yards after contact per attempt. Montgomery is a good spot for his early down role this week. Since Week 7, the Giants have continued to field one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, allowing the second-most rushing yards per game, the highest explosive run rate, the third-highest missed tackle rate, and the fourth-most yards after contact per attempt.
In Week 10, Kamara had a 64.2% snap share with a 48.4% route share (10.7% target share), 25 touches, and 115 total yards. He handled both of the team’s red zone carries. It was his highest touch count since Week 2. Kamara is still searching for his second touchdown of the season. His 3.1% explosive run rate and 1.72 yards after contact per attempt are basement-level per-touch metrics, but his 16% missed tackle rate is respectable. Kamara has a nice matchup this week where he could continue to build upon his last game and hopefully get into the endzone. Since Week 7, Atlanta has allowed the third-most rushing yards per game, the tenth-highest yards before contact per attempt, the eighth-highest rushing success rate, and had the sixth-lowest stuff rate.
Quinshon Judkins is the RB21 in fantasy points per game, averaging 19 touches and 76.7 total yards. He is 17th in opportunity share, 18th in weighted opportunities, and 18th in red zone touches among backs. Among 54 qualifying backs, Judkins ranks 24th in missed tackle rate and 22nd in yards after contact per attempt. This week, he faces a Raiders run defense that, since Week 7, has allowed the 12th-most rushing yards per game, the 11th-highest missed tackle rate, and the fourth-highest rushing success rate to gap runs (Judkins, 56.1% gap). Judkins is a volume-driven RB2 again this week.
We should not be living in a world where Ashton Jeanty got only six carries against the Cowboys. SIX! CARRIES! Chip Kelly, what in the actual hell are you doing? Jeanty’s fantasy day was somewhat saved by the eight targets that he got, but this is head-scratching, no matter how you slice it. Jeanty’s passing game usage has been nice with at least five targets in each game since Week 9. Among 54 qualifying backs, Jeanty is ninth in missed tackle rate and 28th in yards after contact per attempt. I would not be shocked if the Raiders came out this week with the onus placed upon running the ball. This would be a good opportunity to feed Jeanty. Since Week 7, Cleveland has allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game, the fifth-highest explosive run rate, the 12th-highest yards before contact per attempt, and ranked 15th in missed tackle rate.
If Jacobs can’t go this week, Wilson would be the team’s every-down back. Last week, after Jacobs left the game, Wilson played 94% of the snaps with all of the rushing work and a 73% route share. Wilson hasn’t been a special player this season on a per-touch basis, with only a 1.9% explosive run rate, a 4% missed tackle rate, and 2.02 yards after contact per attempt. Wilson would be a volume-driven RB2, though. Since Week 7, Minnesota has allowed the 13th-most rushing yards per game, the 11th-highest rushing success rate, and had the 11th-lowest stuff rate.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Since Week 9, Zach Charbonnet has averaged 12 touches and 58.6 total yards as he’s taken a step back in the backfield pecking order. He has had a 40.3% snap share, which is less than Kenneth Walker’s, while also having a 25.6% route share and 3.8% target share (both less than Walker’s). During that span, Walker has had eight red zone rushing attempts, and Charbonnet has logged seven. Last week, Charbonnet had three carries inside the 20-yard line while Walker had only one, so this does remain somewhat of a fluid situation. George Holani has also gotten into the red zone mix, as he had two carries in the red zone last week. Among 54 qualifying backs, Charbonnet ranks 20th in missed tackle rate and yards after contact per attempt. This week’s matchup might not be as great as it seems at first glance. Since Week 7, Tennessee has allowed the eighth-most rushing yards per game, the ninth-highest explosive run rate, and the seventh-most yards before contact per attempt. If we zoom in further, it isn’t amazing, though. I know it’s a small sample, but I have to bring it up. Since Week 9, with Jeffery Simmons (returned in Week 11) and T’Vondre Sweat (returned in Week 7) back, Tennessee has allowed the 11th-fewest rushing yards per game, the third-lowest explosive run rate, zero missed tackles, and the tenth-fewest yards after contact per attempt. We’ll see if Tennessee’s run defense is as improved as I fear this week. If not, Charbonnet should have a solid game. If they have truly gotten better, it could be a disappointing showing.
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Tyrone Tracy Jr. has been handling the heavy lifting for the Giants’ run game over the last two games, but he has almost zero touchdown equity. Across the last two games, he has averaged a 59.3% snap rate, 19 touches, and 105 total yards, but he has only two red zone rushing attempts, as Devin Singletary has handled 12. Tracy will likely rack up volume again this week, but he won’t sniff a score unless he manages a long run. Among 54 qualifying backs, he ranks 33rd in explosive run rate and 30th in yards after contact per attempt. Tracy is a volume-driven middling flex play this week. Since Week 7, Detroit has allowed the ninth-lowest explosive run rate, the 13th-fewest rushing yards per game, and the lowest yards after contact per attempt.
Aaron Jones has taken over the Minnesota backfield over the last two games with a 69.2% snap rate while averaging 15.5 touches and 75 total yards. Jones’ per-touch numbers won’t jump off the page with his 3.8% explosive run rate, 6% missed tackle rate, and 1.71 yards after contact per attempt, but he’s a volume play again this week. His former team will make him earn every blade of grass this week. Since Week 7, Green Bay has allowed the tenth-lowest explosive run rate, the third-lowest missed tackle rate, and the fourth-fewest yards after contact per attempt.
Kenneth Gainwell could lead the Steelers’ ground game this week with Jaylen Warren not 100% healthy. I expect the Steelers to split the work for the backfield this week, and Gainwell’s workload could depend on how Warren is feeling and the in-game situations. I wouldn’t be surprised if either player led the team in snaps and touches this week. It feels like it’ll be a hot hand approach this week. Among 54 qualifying backs, Gainwell ranks 27th in missed tackle rate and 34th in yards after contact per attempt. He’s a strong flex who could easily post RB2 numbers this week. He faces a Bears’ run defense that, since Week 7, has allowed the 14th-highest explosive run rate, the 12th-highest rushing success rate, and the third-most yards before contact per attempt.
Sit’em
Since Week 6, Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears have split the work evenly. Since Week 6, Pollard has averaged 12 touches and 51 total yards with a 50.7% snap rate, a 31.8% route share, an 8.9% target share, and five red zone rushing attempts. Pollard hasn’t exactly been efficient with his workload this season, with only a 2.3% explosive run rate, a 12% missed tackle rate, and 2.38 yards after contact per attempt. Pollard is an uninspiring flex this week. Since Week 7, Seattle’s run defense has fallen off and become an average unit, ranking 15th in rushing success rate allowed and missed tackle rate, and 17th in rushing yards per game permitted.
Since Week 6, Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears have split the work evenly. Since Week 6, Spears has averaged 9.6 touches and 53.6 total yards per game with a 50.4% snap rate, a 42.6% route share, an 11.3% target share, and four red zone rushing attempts. Spears has had only a 2.9% explosive run rate, a 12% missed tackle rate, and 2.29 yards after contact this season. Spears is an uninspiring flex this week. Since Week 7, Seattle’s run defense has fallen off and become an average unit, ranking 15th in rushing success rate allowed and missed tackle rate, and 17th in rushing yards per game permitted.
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