Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice
Start’em
Don’t look now, but Kyle Pitts is the TE10 in fantasy points per game and has finished as a TE1 in weekly scoring in three of his last four games (TE3, TE12, TE6). Pitts has a 20.2% target share with 49.1 receiving yards per game (1.54 yards per route run) and a 17.3% first-read share. He has three red zone targets and one deep target. He’s set up for another strong game this week against a defense that has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game and the tenth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Since Week 4, AJ Barner has been the TE9 in fantasy points per game with a 12.6% target share, averaging 40.8 receiving yards per game (2.12 yards per route run) with a 12% first-read share. In these four games, he has four red zone targets (three scores) and a deep target. Barner is a solid streamer this week as Washington has allowed the 11th-most receiving yards per game and the ninth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Zach Ertz is the TE15 in fantasy points per game with two TE1 outings this season. Ertz and Deebo Samuel should lead the way for Washington this week against Seattle’s two-high coverage. Ertz has three red zone targets and two scores in his last five games. Seattle has the second-highest two high rate (62%). Against two high, Ertz is second on the team with a 24.7% target share with 2.03 yards per route run and a 34.7% first-read share (leads the team). Seattle has allowed the eighth-most receiving yards per game and the fourth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Dalton Kincaid is the TE8 in fantasy points per game while ranking 11th at the position in deep targets and 14th in red zone targets. He has a 52.7% route share with a 15.3% target share, averaging 51.7 receiving yards per game (2.84 yards per route run) with a 17.1% first-read share. The Chiefs have the sixth-highest two-high rate in the NFL (57.2%). Since Week 2, against two high, Kincaid is tied for the team lead with a 30% target per route run rate and leads the team with 2.48 yards per route run. Kincaid should see heavy usage when on the field this week, but the matchup is tough. Kansas City ranks 18th in yards per reception allowed to tight ends and has held the position to the fourth-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game this season.
Sit’em
Hunter Henry is the TE14 in fantasy points per game with two TE1 weekly finishes (TE1, TE10), but none since Week 4. Henry has a 15.4% target share with 39.6 receiving yards per game (1.55 yards per route run) and a 17.1% first-read share. He is tied for the team lead with eight red zone targets while also having four deep targets. This week, I’d be streaming a tight end over Henry if you have him on your roster. Atlanta has allowed the fewest receiving yards per game and schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to tight ends.
T.J. Hockenson has been a massive disappointment as the TE24 in fantasy points per game. He has only one game this season where he has finished as a TE1 (TE5). Hockenson has seven red zone targets and zero deep targets this season. He has a 16.4% target share with 31.7 receiving yards per game (1.13 yards per route run), and a 15.6% first-read share. He could flirt with TE1 production this week against a defense that has allowed the 13th-most receiving yards per game and the 11th-highest yards per reception to tight ends.
Since Week 4, Theo Johnson has been the TE11 in fantasy points per game, drawing an 18.8% target share with 32.6 receiving yards per game (1.22 yards per route run) and a 22.6% first-read share. In those five games, he has had five red zone targets and a deep target. Johnson is best left on the bench this week. San Francisco has allowed the tenth-fewest receiving yards per game and the 13th-fewest yards per reception and schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to tight ends.
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