Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice
Start’em
Kayshon Boutte has been crushing as the WR35 in fantasy points per game. He has four top-24 weekly wide receiver finishes this season. He has been a top-24 wide receiver in each of the last three games (WR4, WR24, WR12). Boutte has a 12.7% target share, a 28.3% air-yard share, 2.10 yards per route run, and a 15.2% first-read share. He leads the team with nine deep targets while having only one red zone target. This week, he faces an Atlanta secondary that has utilized single high at the highest rate in the NFL (72%). Against single high, Boutte has seen his target share increase to 16.2% with 2.10 yards per route run and a 16.8% first-read share. He should continue the hot streak this week. Since Week 4, Atlanta has allowed the seventh-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Since Week 4, Wan’Dale Robinson has had a 22.9% target share, 54.2 receiving yards per game (1.69 yards per route run), and a 23.7% first-read share as the WR44 in fantasy points per game. In those five games, he has four red zone targets and five deep targets. This week, he’ll face a 49ers’ secondary that, since Week 6, has utilized single high at the seventh-highest rate (60.6%). Since Week 4, against single high, has tied for second on the team with a 19% target per route run rate against single high with 2.06 yards per route run. Robinson should have a banner week against a secondary that, since Week 4, has allowed the third-most receiving yards per game and fourth-most PPR points per target to slot receivers.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Outside of Tre Tucker‘s monster game in Week 3, he has three top-36 wide receiver finishes in weekly scoring (WR24, WR36, WR24). In that six-game sample, Tucker has had a 17.1% target share with 40.7 receiving yards per game (1.42 yards per route run) and a 24.1% first-read share. In that sample, he has three red zone targets and five deep targets. Tucker is a strong flex play this week against a Jags secondary that, since Week 4, has allowed the fifth-most PPR points per target and the third-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Alec Pierce has excelled as the team’s downfield threat as the WR47 in fantasy points per game with two top-36 weekly finishes (WR34, WR22). Pierce has a 17.5% target share with a 45.4% air-yard share (21.0 aDOT), 64.3 receiving yards per game (2.37 yards per route run), and a 20.9% first-read share. Pierce is a very strong flex play this week, and it all comes down to the coverage structure for Pittsburgh and their issues with defending the deep ball. Pierce leads the team with nine deep targets. Since Week 4, Pittsburgh has allowed the 12th-most deep passing yards per game and the ninth-highest passer rating to downfield targets. This week, he faces a Steelers’ secondary that has the third-highest single high rate in the NFL (63%). Against single high, Pierce has a 29.5% target share, 4.33 yards per route run, and a 33.3% first-read share. Pierce should crush this week against a secondary that, since Week 4, has allowed the second-most receiving yards per game and fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Last week, Chimere Dike was a full-time player with an 86% route share, a 21.1% target share, 93 receiving yards (2.51 yards per route run), and a 23.8% first-read share (second on the team). Across the last two games, he has one red zone target and two deep targets. Since Week 6, Los Angeles has utilized two high at the third highest rate (66.7%). Since Week 7, against two high, Dike has a 21% target per route run rate (second on the team) and 2.18 yards per route run. Strong numbers for the rookie. The Bolts have allowed the tenth-most PPR points per target to slot receivers this season. Dike is a solid flex play for Week 9.
Romeo Doubs is the WR30 in fantasy points per game, ranking second on the team in red zone targets and leading the way with eight deep targets. Doubs has a 19.7% target share, a 39.3% air-yard share, 50 receiving yards per game (1.88 yards per route run), and a 24.5% first-read share. Doubs is a strong flex play again this week against a secondary that, since Week 4, has allowed the third-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Last week, Christian Watson surprised me with a 59.5% route share, finishing with 85 receiving yards (18.3 aDOT). He had a 10.8% target share, 3.86 yards per route run, and a 17.4% first-read share (third on the team). If he’s going to operate as the team’s field stretcher, this isn’t a great matchup for him. Only one of his four targets was downfield, though, so that’s not the only thing he was asked to do last week. Watson is a risky, deep league flex this week against a secondary that, since Week 4, has allowed the third-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Outside of his outlier game against the Jets, Xavier Legette hasn’t managed more than three receptions or 31 receiving yards in any game this season. The high leverage usage has been there, though, as he is second on the team with eight red zone targets and has four deep targets. Overall, he has a 15.4% target share with 26.5 receiving yards per game (0.86 yards per route run), and a 20.8% first-read share. Legette isn’t an inspiring flex play this week, but the matchup is better for him than many would think. If you’re in a pinch in Week 9, there are far worse options to consider. Since Week 4, Green Bay has allowed the fourth-most PPR points per target and the most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Last week, Jalen Coker saw his route share increase to 75% while he had a 12.5% target share, 36 receiving yards (1.50 yards per route run), and a 16.7% first-read share. Carolina will be trailing this week, so they should be chucking it. As long as they don’t get blown out early and pull their starters, Coker is a low-end flex play. Since Week 4, Green Bay has allowed the ninth-most PPR points per target to slot receivers (last week, Coker 62.5% slot).
Sit’em
On most teams, I’m sitting Quentin Johnston this week. There’s a small avenue that could allow him to pay off in fantasy this week, but there’s also a mountain of recent evidence stacked against him that screams to sit him. Since his return to the lineup in Week 7, he hasn’t been the same player, only seeing a 6.3% target share with 15 receiving yards per game, 0.38 yards per route run, and a 6.8% first-read share. Those numbers are astronomically different than his pre-hamstring injury market share and production numbers. Even if I believed he was fully healthy right now, the coverage matchup is horrible for him this week. Tennessee has the third-highest two-high rate in the NFL (59.9%). Against two high, Johnston has only a 14% target per route run rate and 0.92 yards per route run. The only avenue that Johnston has this week to produce against Tennessee is with his downfield usage. He leads the team with ten deep targets. Since Week 4, Tennessee has allowed the second-highest deep completion rate and deep passer rating. Johnston is a dice roll flex only this week.
Elic Ayomanor is the WR59 in fantasy points per game, having surpassed 50 receiving yards in a game only twice this season. He hasn’t had a red zone target since Week 3. Ayomanor has a 16.4% target share, 1.12 yards per route run, and a 21.6% first-read share. He has only four red zone targets and seven deep targets this season. Since Week 6, Los Angeles has utilized two high at the third highest rate (66.7%). Against two high, Ayomanor has only an 18% target per route run rate and 0.75 yards per route run. Sit Ayomanor this week. Since Week 4, Los Angeles has held perimeter wide receivers to the 12th-fewest PPR points per target.
I don’t want to plug Jakobi Meyers into a flex spot this week. He’s the WR43 in fantasy points per game, commanding a 22% target share with 54.8 receiving yards per game (1.71 yards per route run) and a 26.1% first-read share. In six games played, Meyers has five red zone and deep targets. The Jags have been a shutdown unit against slot receivers, allowing the fewest PPR points per target and the second-fewest receiving yards per game since Week 4. Sit Meyers this week.
I’m not trusting Keon Coleman in any lineup this week. Since Week 2, he has finished higher than WR50 in weekly scoring only once. The Chiefs have the sixth-highest two-high rate in the NFL (57.2%). Since Week 2, against two high, he has only a 16% target per route run rate and 0.95 yards per route run. Since Week 4, Kansas City has held perimeter wide receivers to the eighth-fewest receiving yards per game and fantasy points per game. Sit Coleman.
Matthew Golden isn’t fully healthy, so maybe that is playing a factor here, but in Christian Watson‘s first game back, Golden saw his usage plummet. Last week, he had a 70.3% route share, but his target share fell to 8.1% with only three receptions for four yards (0.3 aDOT) and an 8.7% first-read share. With his aDOT almost non-existent and his target share falling off a table with Watson back, Golden is a sit until we see his role evolve.
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