I entered Week 15 with a 13-29 (.310) record on my bold predictions this year. After getting one of my three bold predictions right last week, my season ledger sits at 14-31 (.311). My batting average is north of .300 as I approach the finish line for bold predictions this year, and I’ll look to bolster it with the following three bold predictions for Week 16.
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Week 16 Fantasy Football Bold Predictions
Medium
Jalen Coker Will Finish as a Top-36 WR in Half-PPR
Jalen Coker is the WR41 in half-PPR expert consensus rankings (ECR) this week, but I’m more bullish on his outlook and expect him to finish as a top-36 receiver. The Buccaneers have a pass-funnel defense and are a mid-range fantasy matchup for wide receivers.
According to the Fantasy Points data suite, Tampa Bay has faced the fourth-highest pass rate over expectation (4% PROE) this year and has faced a 4% PROE since Week 11. In addition, they’ve permitted the 16th-most half-PPR points per game (22.2) to wide receivers since Week 11.
They’ve been worse against slots than perimeter wideouts. Tampa Bay has allowed the 20th-most half-PPR points per game (13.6) and the 26th-most yards per target (6.71) to outside wide receivers since Week 11. Slot receivers have scored the 14th-most half-PPR points per game (8.8) and tallied the eighth-most yards per target (9.64) against the Buccaneers since Week 11.
Coker’s stats since Week 11:
- 77% route participation rate
- 10.8-yard average depth of target (aDOT)
- 24.7% air yards share
- 14.4% target share
- 0.16 targets per route run (TPRR)
- 21.2% first-read rate
- 15 receptions (3.8 per game)
- 218 receiving yards (54.5 per game)
- 2.04 yards per route run (YPRR)
- 2 touchdowns
- 36.4% wide rate
- 62.6% slot rate
During that period, Coker was the WR26 in half-PPR points per game (10.3). I don’t see a reason to view him as anything short of a WR3 in 12-team leagues, putting him inside the top 36 at the position.
Hot
The Titans Will Finish as a Top-12 D/ST
Gamers streaming defenses might need to get creative this week, and the Titans qualify as an intriguing defense against the Gardner Minshew-led Chiefs, especially since they’ll almost certainly be without Rashee Rice. Kansas City’s No. 1 wide receiver entered the NFL’s concussion protocol after experiencing symptoms of a concussion on Monday, and he’s yet to practice this week.
The Chiefs will also likely be without multiple starters along the offensive line again this week. Minshew’s first start of the season is shaping up to be without his top passing-game weapon, with multiple reserves along the offensive line and on the road.
According to Pro-Football-Reference, Minshew threw nine interceptions, lost five fumbles and took 34 sacks in 13 starts for the Colts in 2023. Moreover, he tossed six interceptions, lost two fumbles and took 21 sacks in eight games on the road that year. The Titans are the D/ST16 in ECR, but they’re a more appealing option than the Lions, Cowboys, Buccaneers, Giants and Falcons, all of whom rank ahead of them. Defenses are volatile. They might not outscore all five defenses I highlighted as misranked ahead of the Titans, but they could outscore one or more of the other defenses ranked ahead of those defenses. Ultimately, the Titans should finish as a top-12 fantasy defense this week.
Atomic
Jordan Mason Will Outscore Aaron Jones in Half-PPR
Minnesota’s running backs have a tantalizing matchup this week. The Giants are tied for the third-most half-PPR points per game allowed (27.6) to running backs since Week 11. They ceded 133.5 rushing yards per game, six yards per carry, four rushing touchdowns, 5.5 receptions per game, 37 receiving yards per game and one receiving touchdown to running backs in those four games.
The G-Men have been gashed by explosive runs. They’ve permitted the highest explosive run rate (8.3%) this year and a 7.3% explosive run rate since Week 11, the second-highest mark during that period.
Jordan Mason is Minnesota’s most explosive running back. He has a 4.9% explosive run rate this year and a 7.3% explosive run rate since Week 11 compared to a 4.3% explosive run rate for the entire season and a 3.5% explosive run rate since Week 11 for Aaron Jones. Mason is also more likely to punch in a rushing touchdown — or more than one — than Jones. Mason has handled 63.6% of Minnesota’s rush attempts inside the 5-yard line this season, and Jones has had only a 20% rate.
Obviously, Jones is the superior pass-catching back. Still, the Vikings are 3-point favorites this week. As long as the game script doesn’t get away from the Vikings, Mason and Jones should have ample opportunities to steamroll Big Blue’s pathetic run defense, and Mason is the superior runner. Jones is the RB20 in half-PPR ECR. Mason is the RB40. Jones is the higher-floor option since he’s game-script proof, but since I don’t expect the game script to turn negative for the Vikings, Mason can outrush Jones and score a touchdown, allowing him to finish ahead of the higher-ranked Jones this week.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
