Friday afternoons are my opportunity to connect with FantasyPros readers and the FantasyPros Discord community. If you haven’t already done so, be sure to join our Discord to get answers to your questions. I host weekly AMAs on Fridays, and other analysts also routinely answer questions. Below were three standout topics from Friday’s busy Week 16 AMA.
- Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Pickups
- Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Discord AMA: Week 16
Can Gamers Trust Drake London?
Raheem Morris said Drake London “is playing” against the Cardinals this week. London’s practice level this week has been odd, though. He was limited on Wednesday and Thursday before sitting out Friday’s practice. London says he’s “trending in the right direction.”
The Falcons aren’t playing for anything. Playing London if his knee is still a significant concern would be organizational malpractice. He might not be thrust back into his full pre-injury role. Yet, it wouldn’t make sense to push him just for a small role, either. Thus, something like Mike Evans‘ participation level, while coming back from an entirely different injury, might be a reasonable expectation. According to the Fantasy Points data suite, Evans had a 65% route participation rate against the Falcons in Week 15.
London can’t be expected to duplicate Evans’ six receptions for 132 receiving yards on 10 targets. Still, London on a 60-70% route participation rate, with a high targets per route run rate, would fit in the volatile WR2 tier, with the upside to crack the top 12 at the position, and the downside to perform like a low-end Flex or worse.
Even if London returns, the genie can’t be put back in the bottle with Kyle Pitts. Obviously, Pitts had a week-winning career day last week. Nevertheless, he also had an 80.3% route participation rate, 39.4% air yards share, 27% target share, 0.32 targets per route run (TPRR), 13 receptions (6.5 per game), 172 receiving yards (86 per game) and 3.25 yards per route run (YPRR) in the two prior games. Pitts must be treated as an upper-tier fantasy tight end.
How Should Gamers Treat Kenneth Gainwell?
Pittsburgh’s backfield has been maddening. However, Gainwell has had at least a 42% snap share in six straight games, outsnapping Jaylen Warren in Week 15, Week 12, Week 11 and Week 10. Since Week 10, Warren has logged 72 rush attempts, 46.8 rushing yards per game, 3.90 yards per carry, two rushing touchdowns, a 29.8% route participation rate, 2.2 targets per game, two receptions per game, 16.5 receiving yards per game and one receiving touchdown. Meanwhile, Gainwell had the following numbers in those six contests:
- 41 rush attempts
- 38.5 rushing yards per game
- 5.63 yards per carry
- 1 rushing touchdown
- 57.1% route participation rate
- 5.3 targets per game
- 5 receptions per game
- 35.5 receiving yards per game
- 2 receiving touchdowns
Gainwell has been more efficient as a runner and dominated the passing-game usage. His edge in passing-game usage is crucial this week since the Steelers are 7-point underdogs against the Lions. Gainwell should be treated as a locked-and-loaded RB2, and Warren is merely an emergency RB2 or Flex.
Should Gamers Be Worried About Michael Wilson if Marvin Harrison Jr. Plays?
Marvin Harrison Jr. is listed as questionable, but it appears he’ll return this week. Michael Wilson has been unreal without Harrison, and Wilson had only three receptions for 36 scoreless yards when Harrison returned from his appendectomy in Week 13. Gamers are understandably concerned Wilson will turn into a pumpkin if Harrison suits up this week.
Wilson bottomed out after tallying 185 and 118 receiving yards in the two prior weeks to Harrison’s last return. It might appear that the toothpaste can go back in the tube. However, a look under the hood was less concerning.
Wilson had an 86.7% route participation rate, 12.7-yard average depth of target (aDOT), 89 air yards, a 17.5% target share, 0.18 TPRR and a 23.3% first-read rate in Week 13. Wilson is genuinely talented, and Harrison might struggle while playing through a heel injury. Both wide receivers also have a mouthwatering matchup. The Falcons have allowed the second-most half-PPR points per game (38.5) to wide receivers since Week 11. Wilson is a WR1 if Harrison is out and a locked-in WR2 if his second-year teammate returns. The matchup is also favorable enough that Harrison can be treated as a dart throw WR3 or Flex play.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
