Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Jake Ferguson, Tyler Allgeier, George Pickens

Week 16 fantasy football is here, which means the margin for error is thinner than your FAAB budget in October. Most leagues are deep into the second round of the fantasy playoffs, where one bold start or one ill-timed dud can be the difference between a championship run and aggressively pretending you “didn’t really care this year anyway.” There’s no room left for vibes-only lineup decisions. Now it’s about squeezing every last edge out of matchups, roles, and trends.

That’s where this list comes in. Below, you’ll find Week 16 sleepers and duds pulled directly from our Featured Pros, highlighting players they’re confident can swing matchups in either direction. Whether you’re chasing upside or just trying to avoid a catastrophic zero, these expert-backed start/sit insights are designed to help you survive another week — and keep the dream alive.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Start/Sit Advice

Sleepers

Which player outside of the top 100 in the FantasyPros Flex rankings is a good sleeper start, and why do you think he has upside this week?

Jake Ferguson (TE – DAL)

“Jake Ferguson was a startable tight end over the first couple of months of the season. Unfortunately, he has only had one touchdown since Week 7 and hasn’t had more than 60 receiving yards since Week 2. However, he has at least five targets in all but one game since Week 9, and the 26-year-old has a plus-matchup against the Chargers upcoming. The Los Angeles Chargers have allowed tight ends to score at least 14 PPR points in each of the last three weeks.”
– Matt De Lima (Athlon Sports)

Tyler Allgeier (RB – ATL)

“There are a lot of really good choices outside of the top 100 this week, but give me Tyler Allgeier over all of them. The Arizona defense has struggled mightily the past few weeks and is now giving up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Factor in that the Arizona offense is stingier in the pass game despite scoring well themselves, and it’s a nice spot for Allgeier to see work as both a runner and a receiver as part of a Bijan Robinson, 1-2 punch in the Atlanta backfield. I’m not super bullish on Allgeier’s upside, but I do like his incredibly safe floor, along with a potential ceiling if the run game gets going. With eight touchdowns on the season already, a ninth feels very likely in this one.”
– Jeremy Shulman (Fantasy Football Universe)

“It takes some stones to start a handcuff, especially when the alternate cuff is an all-around monster like Bijan Robinson, but Tyler Allgeier isn’t any handcuff. He would be a low-end No. 1 RB on many of the weaker run offenses. Opportunity is his weakness, not ability. Allgeier can contribute in the passing game; he has double-digit carries in two of his last four starts, touchdowns in three of his last six and he faces the lowly Arizona Cardinals run defense, which ranks fifth-worst in points allowed to running backs. Outside of the numbers, the Falcons’ season is over, and yet they still appear to be putting together competitive efforts. I can’t help but think that Bijan Robinson’s carries and snap count will start to diminish, saving him for the future when the current season is a dead season. Outside of the top 100, I can think of worse gambles than a good player on a team still playing hard in one of the five best matchups of the week.”
– Chris Mitchell (FantasyData)

Duds

Which player inside the top 40 in the FantasyPros Flex rankings is likely to disappoint fantasy managers this week?

George Pickens (WR – DAL)

“George Pickens looked like he was going to become the next top-tier wide receiver when CeeDee Lamb went down earlier in the year. Lamb returned, and he had a few good games. Then, the last two weeks happened. Pickens had 37 and 33 yards in Weeks 14 and 15, respectively. Bring on the Chargers’ defense that has only allowed 12 passing touchdowns this year, and Pickens is sure to disappoint teams that he helped carry to the fantasy playoffs.”
– Adam Dove (The Fantasy Couriers)

“A player who could disappoint in the semi-finals of the fantasy playoffs is George Pickens. You obviously can’t bench him given his season-long production, but the recent trend is concerning, as he’s turned 15 targets over the last two weeks into just eight catches, 110 yards and 11 total fantasy points despite favorable matchups. There have also been visible effort issues, as Pickens drew criticism for his motor and continued to show lapses in Week 15, including giving up on routes and showing minimal urgency as a run blocker. The matchup this week is a major red flag, with the Chargers ranking second in pass defense DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), allowing the seventh-fewest points to perimeter receivers, and giving up the fewest fantasy points per game overall. While Pickens still ranks sixth in targets, fifth in air yards and seventh in points per game on the season, the combination of recent inefficiency and an elite defensive matchup makes him a notable bust candidate.”
– Ryan Linkletter (Blitz Sports Media)